Saturday, July 11, 2020

Boulder Road Runners-Race #2 in the 2020 Covid Summer Holidays Virtual Race Series-INDEPENDENCE DAY

July 10, 2020 This preview goes up well into the July 3 to July 12 window for completing one's virtual run; many athletes have already run their race, and some may be posted already. To preserve the integrity of the preview, I asked Bruce Kirschner and Roger Sayre to not send me any information about actual races run already.

Boulder has opted for more structure to their racing guidelines than has been true for most Virtual Runs and for the Garden State Track Club vs. Atlanta Track Club race series. Here are the main details of the Independence Day Virtual Race.
  • Races must be completed between July 3, 2020 and 12 noon on July 12, 2020.
  • Runners can run either a 5K or 10K. Last minute decisions are allowed; a runner who intended to run a 10K, for example, could start the VR 10K, get to the 5K mark, and decide that's good enough.
  • Screenshot of GPS or GPS/Strava Link should be shared with Team Rep for validation.
  • VR's on a track must be by lap count as GPS is not accurate on tracks; GPS must be submitted as validation for time.
  • Although the event has no connection with USATF, the Club is requiring that members be current or recent (2018-2020) USATF members and that all participants be bona fide members of their Club.
  • Age of the athlete is as of the day they run their VR.
  • Courses may have some variability but drops of more than 50' for a 5K or 100' for a 10K should be avoided. (This is more stringent than the requirement for the Virtual Brooklyn Mile, which allowed up to 17.6 yards (52.8 feet) for a mile (1% drop). It is less stringent than the requirement for American Record eligibility of 1 meter drop per kilometer, or about 16.4 feet for a 5K/32.8 for a 10K.)
  • Separation of start and finish can be no more than half the distance run. (to avoid potential tailwind effects);
  • Pacing by other runners or teammates is not allowed.
  • Runners who race their event at an elevation above 3,500 feet will have their finishing time converted to a sea level equivalent based on NCAA altitude adjustment standards. The adjustment for 5K/10K at 3501-4228 [Bend, OR] is about 1.6/2%; for 4229-4849 [Greeley CO] about 2.6/3.1%; on up to about 3/3.7% at 5270-5398 [Denver CO]; rising to 4.7/5.6% at 6449-6935 [Flagstaff AZ].
  • Teams must have 5 runners to score [3 for Women's teams]; the fastest 5 runners in terms of age-grading percentage will be scored. Teams with ten or more athletes will have their 2nd 5 as a 'B' team.
  • Teams will be ranked by adding up the age-grade percentages for their top 5 runners. A runner from 70 and above may run with the 60+ team, but only one such individual may be counted in the scoring of top 5.
  • All times, whether run on the track or on the roads, will be converted to an age-grading percentage using the brand new 2020 age-grading tables, adopted by the USATF Masters LDR Committee at their May 2020 meeting. The relevant calculator is: http://www.howardgrubb.co.uk/athletics/mldrroad20.html
  • Participating teams are urged to use safe racing practices and follow local social distancing regulations to avoid transmission of Covid-19. Some specific suggestions include: teams that choose to run their races in a single place at approximately the same time, should restrict the starting group to ten. There should be a staggered start with at least 15 seconds between runners. Order of runners should be randomly determined; neither drafting nor pacing is allowed.
There are 8 teams vying for honors on the Men's side and 5 on the Women's side. The organizers are to be commended for attracting a competitive field in both Women's and Men's competition. For each of the times, I list the roster and some recent times they have run. I then use those to make an informed guess about how they might run and what that means for the team total age grading score.

WOMEN
Teams competing include: Boulder Road Runners, Greater Lowell Track Club, Greater Philadelphia Track Club, Liberty Athletic Club, and Shore Athletic Club. Shore AC and Liberty AC met at the 2019 Club XC Championships, with slightly different personnel and a different surface to run on. In that contest, Shore had the edge, finishing 5th with a time of 1:32:40 to Liberty's 1:39:00. Shore and Greater Lowell Track Club met in the first round of this contest, with Shore taking a narrow victory, 79.84% average to 78.23%.

Boulder Road Runners: Nancy Antos 70, Sara Cohen 65, and Lynn Hermanson 69. Antos ran an actual 30:11 St. Pat's 5K in March, and a Virtual '4 on the 4th' 4K in 24:09, consistent with the 5K time in mid-March. Cohen ran 28:05 in the Colder Boulder 5K last December, suggesting she is faster than Antos, but ran 25:35 in the same 4 on the 4th VR as Antos. It may have been on courses with different characteristics but suggest they may be closer than the December result suggests. Hermanson ran 27:09 in the Colder Boulder 5K, and 27:05 in the same St. Pat's 5K as Antos. If we suspect that Hermanson can run around 27, Cohen around 28 and Antos around 29, then they get a 3% altitude adjustment drops them to around 26.12, 27.10, and 28.06. The Grubb 2020 calculator, puts Hermanson, Cohen, and Antos at  79.26, 72.52, and 74.97. If we round to the nearest whoe number in each case, that gives a projected total of 227 percentage points [avg. = 75.7]. With just 3 runners, all three have to run their best.

Greater Lowell Track Club: Julie Haynes 61, Amanda Maffei 60, Liane Pancoast 62, Sally Reiley 60, and Michelle Roach 61. Haynes ran 48:18 in the Lone Gull 10K last September, a 23:19 at the Run For All Ages 5K in November, and a 7:23 mile in the 26 x 1 Club Challenge Cup Relay in June. Maffei  ran 26:55 at last May's Westfield's Fastest 5K and 27:37 at the Sharon Timlin 5K last June. Pancoast ran 47:50 at Lone Gull last year and a 40:42 5-miler at the Super Sunday run in February of this year. She also clocked a 6:52 mile for the 26 x 1 Club Relay in June. Reiley ran 46:08 at the Lone Gull last year and a 36:04 5-miler at the Super Sunday run. She ran a leg of the 26 x 1 in 6:32. Roach ran 1:02:09 at Lone Gull and a 49:41 5-miler on Super Sunday. In the Memorial Day edition of this BRR series, Reiley and Pancoast went 1-2 in 22:38 and 24:00 and Haynes ran 25:29. Maffei and Roach did not compete. It seems as if the best predictor is the Memorial Day times run by Reiley, Pancoast and Haynes. If one of those has an off day, GLTC would not lose too much if Maffei can step up. Age-Grade scores for a comparable effort are Reiley, 81.74, Pancoast, 78.96, and Haynes,  73.45. Rounding them a total of 234 percentage points [avg. = 78].
Julie Haynes digging for the finish line at the 2019 USATF Masters 10K Championships in Dedham

Liane Pancoast #81 right-Start of 2019 USATF Masters 10K-Pre-Social Distancing-When will we see this kind of start again? Photo by Mike Scott

Greater Philadelphia Track Club: Kyra McGrath 65, Mary Fanelli Lund 61, and Sandra Folzer 81. McGrath ran 40:48 at the Rothman 8K last November and 52:24 at the Cooper Norcross Run The Bridge 10K in November. This year she ran a 42:51 in February's Frostbite 5 Miler. Lund is primarily a Mountain Biker who participates in Cyclocross. She ran a 10K Trail Run in 1:14:28 (37:14 per 5K) . I have to go back to 2015 in Athlinks to find a 5K (running) race, a 39:04 5K. As that was a Turkey Trot, run in the midst of Cyclocross competitions before and after, she may not have prepped that much. It is possible she could surprise by running significantly faster in this competition. Folzer ran 55:12 in the Fireside Frostbite 5-Miler in February, and two 5K's in 29:08 and 29:30 last summer. If we suppose McGrath can run around a 52:00 10K, and the Trail Run result suggests that a 35 5K on the roads might be plausible for Lund. That would give those two AG %'s of 77.95 and 53.48. Lund, at 81, if she can run 29 for a 5K would get a score of 86.15. Rounding  gives them a total of 219 percentage points [avg. = 73]. I suspect that an avid mountain biker could well run faster than 35 minutes for a 5K but perhaps Lund's focus is on mountain biking and is just running so that GPTC has a complete team. Like Boulder, GPTC's 3 runners must all be at their best; there is no 4th runner to step up.

Liberty Athletic Club: Joan Butterton 62, Alda Cossi 65, Karen Lein 62, Nora Mann 62, Dru Pratt-Otto 61, and Anne Shreffler 63. With 6 runners entered, Liberty AC has plenty of support should any of their top 3 falter. Butterton ran a 7:37 mile in the 26 x 1 relay last month, and took the division title with a 24:21 5000 meter run indoors last January at the USATF NE Championships. Cossi ran 7:07 in the 26 x 1 relay, and took the division title in the 1 Mile run in 7:03.72 at the New England Indoor Championships. She ran 52:33 at Lone Gull and 23:59 at Westfield. Lein ran 8:34 in the 26 x 1 mile relay, and finished 2nd in the NE Indoors divisional mile championship in 8:00.9. Lein ran 4 5K's last fall in times ranging from 27:08 to 27:52. Mann ran 8:56 in the 26 x 1 mile relay and runs her 5K's in the 28 to 29 minute range. Pratt-Otto ran 8:15 in the 26 x 1 mile relay and ran Lone Gull last year  in 56:07. She ran Westfield in 25:10 and the Franklin Park Turkey Trot in 26:04. Shreffler ran 7:54 in the 26 x 1 mile relay and a 45:11 5-miler on Super Sunday. Last October she ran 57:50 in the Reebok Boston 10K for Women. It looks like Liberty's fastest 3 is likely to be Butterton, Cossi, and Pratt-Otto. If Butterton and Cossi can both run around 25:00 for a 5K, and Pratt-Otto around 26:00, they would have scores of: 75.8, 78.8, and 71.99. But Shreffler being two years older than Pratt-Otto might out-point her on age-grading. She would need to run 26:40 or better to do so. That would be a tall order, but not impossible. In any case she is a fine backup should any of the top-3 have an off day. Lein can also run in the low 27's or better; if she ran 27:15, for example, her AG % would be to 69.54. Rounding the percentages for Butterton, Cossi and Pratt-Otto yields a total projected score of 226 percentage points [avg. = 75.3].
Alda Cossi #2067 heading off on the 6 Km course at the 2019 USATF Club XC Championships at Lehigh Photo by Mike Scott

Karen Lein racing for Liberty AC at the 2019 USATF Club XC Championships Photo by Mike Scott

Shore Athletic Club: Barbara Donelik 73,  Kim Hart 60,  Katherine Packowski 63, Diane Rothman 62, and Susan Stirrat 64. Donelik is the oldest but fastest member of the team which means she age grades very well. Last winter she ran two 5K's in 23:38 and 24:14, and ran a 40:21 5-miler in late November. In the first of this BRR series, she clocked a 24:16 5K. Hart ran a 24:30 5K this past December, and has two 5K times under 24:00 last year. Packowski ran a 30:09 5K this past February; she ran the Little Silver 5K in in 28:47 in October. Rothman ran a 22:54 5K in December, and was the top runner for the 5th place Shore 60+ team at Club XC, finishing almost 3 minutes ahead of Hart. Stirrat ran 25:08 at the Little Silver 5K last year but most of the others were in the 26:15 to 27:00 range. Stirrat ran 25:53 in the Memorial Day weekend of this BRR series. If all goes according to form, Donelik, Hart and Rothman should be Shore's top-3 age graders. If they run the equivalent of 24:15, 24:00, and 23:30, those would give them age grades of 90.65, 77.08, and 80.64. If any run into trouble, Stirrat is likely to score in the mid-70's should it be needed. Rounding the top 3 gives a total of  249 percentage points [avg. = 83].
Susan Stirrat, closing it out at the2019 USATF Masters 10 Km Championships, hosted by the James Joyce Ramble Photo by Mike Scott

Based on recent form,  Shore AC is a strong favorite, with Greater Lowell likely for the 2nd spot and Boulder and Liberty too close to call. Nonetheless, I will go with Boulder. Of course we are not automatons; sometimes we run better than expected and sometimes an injury or a preoccupation or other things hinder us.The predictions are just for fun. I love it when athletes live up to expectations but I also love it when a runner exceeds expectations and 'proves me wrong!'
Shore AC   Greater Lowell TC   Boulder RR

MEN
 
Teams competing include: Athletics Boulder, Atlanta Track Club, Boulder Road Runners, Bowerman Track Club, Greater Lowell Track Club, Greater Philadelphia Track Club, Shore Athletic Club, and Silverbacks [a composite team primarily from the Pacific Northwest including Club Northwest, and Eastside Runners, plus one runner from Genesee Valley Harriers. Greater Lowell took top honors at Club XC last December, with Greater Philadelphia 2nd. GLRR is without their top two runners at Lehigh however. GPTC, on the other hand, has their top 3 intact, and has Gene Dykes (perhaps) dropping down from 70's to help out with age-grading. They were followed at Lehigh by Athletics Boulder and Atlanta Track Club. Boulder Road Runners, and Shore AC. Bowerman did not contest Club Cross this year in 60+. In the Memorial Day contest in this series, it was Atlanta taking the contest by a wide margin, with BRR and GLRR in 2nd and 3rd, not far apart in scoring. Shore AC and Athletics Boulder were just off the podium. Personell are slightly different this time and injury is a factor.

Athletics Boulder Rick Bruess 61, Dan King 61, Martin Lascelles 65, Jay Littlepage 61, Kevin Cooper 60, Ken Masarie 61, and Ted Kennedy 63. The recent big news out of AB is that Dan King had the only Level 10 (based on VDOT) performance in the Virtual Brooklyn Mile with an altitude adjusted 4:52. His focus now is to get to Nashville for the Music City Distance Carnival to see if he can break Nolan Shaheed's actual (track) mile record of 4:53 and change. Running a 5K for this effort apparently fits in with those plans. In 2017 he ran 17:33 at the USATF Masters 5K CHampionships in Syracuse. He seems to be running just as well these days. The one worry seems to be a hamstring that has been on the edge of interfering with his runs. But so far, so good. King deferred competing in the BRR Memorial Day week contest. But Lascelles, Bruess, Masarie, Littlepage, and Cooper posted times of 19:23, 20:00, 20:40, 42:09 (10K), and 20:56. Kennedy did not compete last time. Primarily a duathlete, Kennedy occasionally runs a 5K, typically in the 21 to 23 minute range. His time probably won't be needed but if it is, at 63, he would be a strong substitute, especially if he could get close to 21 minutes! It should also be mentioned that msot of these runners will now get a 3% (roughly) altitude adjustment. Applying that I will place the altitude adjusted times at King-17:00, Lascelles-19:00, Bruess-19:25, Masarie 40:30, and Cooper 20:20, with Kennedy perhaps at 21:00. Those would achieve DK-94.22, ML-87.28, RB-82.49, KM-80.86, KC-78.03, and TK-77.62. Rounding and adding the top 5 gives 422 percentage points [avg=84.4].
Dan King stirding to victory in the Virtual Brooklyn Mile in the only VDOT Level 10  performance Photo by Bruce Kirschner
 
Rick Bruess heads around a tricky turn at the 2019 USATF Club XC Championships at Lehigh Photo by Mike Scott

Atlanta Track Club As noted, Atlanta took the Memorial Day contest handily; they have largely the same group reported as on the roster for Independence Day: Mike Anderson 62, Bob Dalton 67, Jeff Dundas 61, Neil Feather 66, John Kissane 60, Kirk Larson 68, Tom McCormack 66, Randy Stroud 65, and Ken Youngers 63. Youngers, McCormack, Dundas, Larson, and Anderson were their top 5 age-graders, with Feather, Dalton, and Stroud in supporting roles. John Kissane replaces Casey Hannan; Kissane's 5K's tend ot be in the 20:30 to 22 range and his 10K's in the 43-45 range. If all goes well for Atlanta's top 5 from Memorial Day, Kissane's contribution will be in a supporting role. The best predictors for this week's comeptition should be the results from Memorial Day. Apart from the usual ups and downs of life, one might think that McCormack would run better this time. Last time he had been focusing his efforts primarily on Mountain Biking, if I recall correctly, but hapened ot find time to get in what he called a 'poor effort'. If he has been able and willing to focus more time on running, watch out this time! Ken Youngers had a super time a few weeks ago; can he come up with another 17:30? Or will he try a 10K? Using the times from Memorial Day gives Youngers-17:30, McCormack-18:40, Dundas 18:36, Larson 19:56, and Anderson 19:08. With the new Age-Grading calculator, that would be: KY-93.14, TM-89.64, JD-86.11, KL-85.54, and MA-84.41. Rounding and adding the top 5 gives 439 percentage points[avg. = 87.8].
Ken Youngers finishing off a big effort at 2018 USATF Club XC Championships in Spokane Photo by Mike Scott

  
Jeff Dundas puts in another strong effort for ATC at the 2019 USATF Masters 10K Championships Photo by Mike Scott

Kirk Larson driving toward the Finish Line at the 2019 USATF Masters 10K Championships Photo by Mike Scott
 
Mike Anderson winds it up as he finishes the 2019 USATF Masters 10K Championships Photo by Mike Scott

Boulder Road Runners Paul Hughes 63, Adam Feerst 60, Jack Pottle 65, Roger Sayre 62, George Braun 66, Jay Survil 61, Benji Durden 68, and Mark Tatum 60. BRR's top age grade on Memorial Day was from Doug Bell who could not fit this one into a busy schedule; Paul Nicolaides is also out. He was followed by Pottle at 19:49, Sayre at 39:50, Braun at 20:19, Feerst at 20:00, and Durden at 21:40. Sayre should be further along with his rehab, I hope. I am putting him down for a 39:00. Hughes, Survil, and Tatum are newcomers. Hughes just ran 17:59 in the FLC Fastest 5k in Durango, which is a 'screaming downhill' course. On the other hand, he did run an 18:24 at the USATF Masters 5K in Atlanta last year and that is not an easy course. Survil focuses on Marathons and Half Marathons, runnign the HM's in the 1:28 to 1:30 range at altitude. He ran a 25:51 4-Miler in Dnever last year; that is age-grade equivalent to a 19:54. Finally we get to Tatum who is a national class trail athlete; he finished 2nd to Brian Pilcher at the legendary Dipsea Race last year. He does occasionally run on other surfaces. On New Year's Day a few months ago he ran a 41:20 10K in his hometown of Colorado Springs. Tatum ran in the Masters race at the 2019 USATF Cross Country Championships in Tallahassee, finishing just 3 seconds behind Sayre. Sayre is better on the roads than the turf and I would guess it is the reverse for Tatum. So I will put him down for a 39:20. If he runs in his hometown, which is higher than Denver, he gets 4.5% altitude adjustment. So what do we have? Sayre-39:00, Braun 20:19 (Braun likes longer distances generally so maybe he will try a 10K this time; if so he might score a little higher age grade), Hughes-18:54 (at altitude and more or less level, at least compared to a near-hundred meter drop for the 17:59), Pottle-19:49, Tatum-39:20, Survil-19:50, Feerst 19:55, Durden 21:30. With altitude adjustment those drop to: Sayre-37:50, Braun 19:40, Hughes 18:15, Pottle 19:15, Tatum 37:55, Survil 19:17, Feerst 19:32, Durden 20:50. Those age grade to: RS-87.36, GB-85.08, PH-89.32, JP-86.15, MT-85.58, JS-83.06, AF 81.23, BD 79.3. Taking the top 5 and rounding gives 433 percentage points (avg. = 86.6)
George Braun strides to the finish at the 2019 USATF Masters 10K Championships Photo by Mike Scott
 
Roger Sayre takes first place in M60 at the 2019 WMA Half Marathon Championship in Poland Photo by David Angell


Jack Pottle cruising through his Memorial Day week effort in May Photo provided by BRR

Bowerman Track Club Chuck Coats 60, Doug Winn 70, Steve Kollars 60, Richard Punches 61, and Mack Stilson 61. A couple of months ago, Coats ran a 21:41 in the Stumptown Quarantine 5K. At Club Cross in Spokane he ran 42:17 in  the 40+ 10K race. His teammate, Kollars, ran 41:32. Winn won the 65-69 division in the 8K XC race in 32:30; Punches was not far back at 33:17. Winn ran 20:08 in the Stumptown Quarantine 5K in early May and was one of only 8 US Masters athletes to score a Level-9 VDOT finish in the Virtual Brooklyn Mile with a 6:10. A couple of weeks ago he ran 43:25 in the Stumptown Virtual 10K. Kollars ran 43:39 in the 10K at the Corvallis Fall Festival Run last year and 19:37 at a 5K in Corvallis in the spring. Punches ran 20:16 in the Bowerman TC 5K in 2018. Stilson ran 20:57 at the Stumptown Quarantine 5K and clocked 19:29 in a 5K a year ago. Putting all that together I get: Coats-21:30, Winn 20:00, Kollars 19:45, Punches 20:45, Stilson 20:40. Those age-grade to: CC-73.8, DW-87.17, SK-80.34, RP-77.19, MS-77.5. No room for error here; all 5 have to be on their game. Rounding gives a total of: 396 percentage points (avg. = 79.2).

Greater Lowell Track Club Kevin Christie 62, Bill Dumont 62, John Hadcock 62, Peter LaGoy 60, Charlie Muse 63, Glenn Stewart 70, Peter Wasylak 64, and David Westenberg 62. All but Muse participated in the Memorial Day week BRR event. Westenberg 18:32, Hadcock 18:59, Stewart 21:12, Christie 20:24, LaGoy 20:19, Dumont 21:26, and Wasylak 22:28, will all look to improve their times. The return of Muse, who was their #3 runner at Club Cross last December should help. Muse ran 30:13 at a 5-miler in early February, but must have suffered some sort of injury shortly after. He ran his leg of the 26 x 1 Challenge in 9:25 and recorded a 14:32 for the Virtual Brooklyn Mile three weeks ago. Given that, it seems unlikely that he can put up the kind of time we would normally expect from him. He ran the BAA 10K in 37:44 and put up a 38:09 at the 2019 USATF Masters 10 Km Championship, hosted by the James Joyce Ramble. I will tentaively list him for a 41:00 which could easily be way faster or slower than he actually can run right now. If I take the times from Memorial Day as good indicators and add in this guess for Muse, what do I get? Westenberg-18:32-87.14, Hadcock 18:59-85.07, Stewart 21:12-82.23, Christie 20:24-79.17, LaGoy 20:19-78.1, Dumont 21:26-75.35, Wasylak 22:28-73.15, Muse 41:00 (10K) 81.38. If so, rounding up and summing gives GLRR a total of 414 percentage points (avg. = 82.8).
John Hadcock leading David Longmuir at 2018 Club XC in Spokane Photo by Mike Scott
 
Peter LaGoy navigates a Muddy Turn at the 2019 Club XC CHampionships at Lehigh-Photo by Mike Scott


Charlie Muse closes out another successful run at the 2019 USATF Masters 10K Championship Photo By Mike Scott

 
David Westenberg leads with Jeff Dundas close behind, taking the outside path on a slippery corner at the 2019 Club XC Championships at Lehigh Photo by Mike Scott 

Greater Philadelphia Track Club Chuck Shields 61, Nick Vetere 63, Tim Conheady 63, Bob Reynolds 63, Mark Carver 60, Jeff Hayes 61, Gene Dykes 72, Tim Jones 60,  Duncan Smith 61, and  Tom DeSchriver 61. GPTC did not participate in the Memorial Day contest so I need to look at other recent performances. Gene Dykes would ordinarily add a 90% plus age-grade to GPTC"s total. I am not sure that will be true this time, though. Even a tremndously resilient athlete like Dykes can suffer from injuries. He has been battling a plantar fascitis injury since May. On July 4th he posted that it was his first run in two months. It was at under 10 minute per mile pace, but not much under and for just 2 miles. His most recent post on July 7th indicated he was up to 6.5 miles at 9:50 pace. My guess is that he will be a scratch. But he has proven me wrong in the past! Shields ran 19:44 in the Royal Run 5K in November, and was the lead runner at 30:17 for the CPTC team that finished 3rd at Club Cross in Bethlehem PA. He and his teammate, Conheady, both came in ahead of Atlanta's Youngers. But Youngers seems to be stronger on the roads and Shields on the turf. Vetere ran a 41:40 10K in early February. Conheady, as noted, finished 18 seconds behind Shields and 3 seconds ahead of Youngers at Club Cross. If I have the same Tim Conheady on Athlinks, who runs mainly in the Chicago area, I can report that he ran a 19:19 and a 19:36 5K in 2018 and in 2019 he ran a 30:59 8K (age grade equivalent to a 19:03) at Chicago's Shamrock Shuffle. If that is not the Conheady who runs for the GPTC, then I have no clues apart from the Club Cross result. Reynolds ran a 12:30 Virtual 3200 meters in April and a 33:04 5-Miler in February [age grade equivalent to a 20:13 5K]. He was GPTC's third runner in at Lehigh, about two minutes behind Conheady. Carver finished 6th in M55 at the 2018 USATF Masters Outdoor TF Championships with a 5:10.7, finishing one second back from Bowerman's Kollars. A 60-year-old Mark Carver from Nashville, TN ran 19:01 at the St. Pete Beach Classic in January; is it the same Mark Carver that runs for GPTC? Hayes is apparently a Trail and Ultra runner primarily. I also find a Race Walk that Hayes may have competed in. He did not compete with the 60+ team at Lehigh. My guess is that he will not be among their top 5, but decided to join for the fun of competing with his team. Jones apparently ran a 23:12 5K on New Years Day and a 36:51 5-Miler 7 weeks later. Smith apparently ran a 23:54 5K last September and he was the #5 runner on GPTC's B team at Lehigh, running 39:49. DeSchriver finished 17th in M55 at the 2018 USATF 5 Km Masters XC Championships in Buffalo, and ran a 20:51 5K in March just before the Covid-19 virus threw things out of whack. Putting this all toghether, here is my best guess for GPTC: Shields 19:20, Vetere 41:30 (10K), Conheady 19:25,  Reynolds 20:10, Carver 19:40, Hayes 23:00, Dykes (scratch), Jones 23:00, Smith 23:40, DeSchriver 20:45. If those pan out that way, then GPTC has CS-82.84, NV 80.4, TC 83.95, BR- 80.83, MC-80.68, JH-69.64, TJ-68.99, DS- 67.68, TD-77.19. The top 5 sum, after rounding, to 409 Percentage points (avg. = 81.8)
Chuck Shields L and Tim Conheady R apply the pressure up front at the 2019 Club XC Championships at Lehigh Photo by Mike Scott

Nick Vetere keeps his gaze ahead at the 2019 Club XC Championships at Lehigh Photo by Mike Scott
 
Bob Reynolds #1512 Maintains momentum around a muddy turn at 2019 Club XC Championships at Lehigh Photo by Mike Scott

Shore Athletic Club Kevin Dollard 64, David Huse 62, John Kilduff 68, Scott Linnell 63, Reno Stirrat 66, Paul Deykerhoff 68, and James Wright 67. Stirrat is normally the leading runner for Shore; at the Memorial Day Week event, he was on the comeback trail from a hip injury, but still provided valuable points in the form of the third-highest age grade score by toughing it out to a 20:47. Since that itme his back has proved difficult. He announced on June 28th that his hamstring had acted up during the Fitzgerald Lager Virtual 5K and he had to shut it down. Since then it has been walking and elliptical only.  Stirrat has come back many times over a long running career. He knows how to do it. I look forward to seeing his name at the top of the leader board again soon. Kilduff had the highest age grade for Shore at the earlier event, running 20:35 at age 68. Then it was Harold Leddy with a 20:11 at 65, but he is not in this event. After Stirrat 3rd, it was Huse with a 20:11 at age 62, and Dollard at 64 with a 20:35. Linnell contributed a 21:01 at 63. Harold Nolan contributed a 23:47 at 73, but cannot make it this time. Deykerhoff ran a 53:35 10K at age 68. James Wright joins the remaining competitors; he ran on Shore's C team at Club Cross, finishing 12 seconds ahead of Deykerhoff in 40:55. It appears that Deykerhoff ran into trouble at the Memorial Day event or was recovering from injury. What does that suggest? Kilduff-20:30-83.17, Huse-20:00-80.75, Dollard 20:20-80.82, Linnell 20:50-78.24, Wright 53:00 (10K)-65.44. Rounding those and adding up gives Shore 376 percentage points (avg. = 75.2).
Kevin Dollard closes out another massive effort at the 2019 USATF Masters 10K Championship Photo By Mike Scott

Silverbacks Russ Otani 61, David Longmuir 72, David Anderson 65,  Les Sharpe 69, Jim McGill 71, and Patrick Dwyer 73. This team was brought together to give the individuals a chance to compete. Technically, as the team has only three members under 70, it cannot meet the requirement that allows only one runner 70 and over to score for the team. Nonetheless it should fun to see how they can do. I know that Longmuir is a strong XC runner; if he is as strong on the roads he would add a nice age grade score. In 2019 Otani ran 5K's in the 19:13 to 19:33 range, and 10K's in the 41 to 42 minute range. Longmuir was rehabbing in the middle of last year when he ran a 21:49 5k. But even in 2018 he ran his 5K's in the low 21 minute range. He ran the Green Lake Gobble 10K in 44:31. He is much more ferocious on the XC turf. Longmuir, along with Craig Andersen, led the Eastside Runners to 4th place in the M70+ division at Club Cross in Bethlehem PA. The year before in Spokane, he finished 4th in M70+ leading his club to 4th. In 2017 Longmuir captured the individual M70 win and led his team to 2nd at Lexington KY. Anderson ran 'The Social Distance', a Virtual 30K in May; his time was 2:44:34. The time was not earth-shattering but it is hard to motivate oneself to take on 30K in the absence of competitors and spectators.It appears that he ran a 23:41 5K last November. He then ran unattached, finishing 8th in M65 at Club Cross, finishing a minute ahead of Atlanta's Larson. That suggests the 23:41 may have been an off day or that he was in the process of a comeback. Sharpe finished a minute and a half behind Anderson, helping Club Northwest to a 5th place finish in M60+. He ran 20:49 in the Haggen to Haggen 5K in May 2019, and ran and ran 35:13 in the Nordstrom Beat the Bridge 8K. McGill was the 4th runner for the 4th place Eastside Runners M70+ team at Club Cross, finishing about 5 minutes back from Longmuir. He runs his 5K's around 24 minutes, and ran the Beat the Bridge 8K in 40:13. Dwyer ran 32:34 in the 2018 USATF 5 K Championships in Atlanta, and was #4 runner on the GVH 'B' team that finished 7th in M70+ at Lehigh. Putting that together, I get Otani 19:20, Longmuir 21:00, Anderson 22:30, Sharpe 21:00, McGill 23:50, Dwyer 32:00. If I ignore the rule requiring 4 f the 5 runners to be under the age of 70, I get for the top 5: RO-82.84, DL-85.24, DA- 73.7, LS-82.06, JM-74.06. Rounding and adding up, the Silverbacks get: 398 percentage points (avg. = 79.6).
Les Sharpe #1333 takes the middle route as John Hadcock #1488 opts for the inside path on a slippery corner at the 2019 Club XC Championships at Lehigh Photo by Mike Scott
 
David Anderson #1864 keeps his stride going to avoid a pile-up at the 2019 Club XC Championships at Lehigh Photo by Mike Scott

If everyone runs exactly as I suggest in this analysis the final order of finish would be:
  
Atlanta TC 87.8 avg    Boulder Road Runners 86.6   Athletics Boulder 84.4,
Greater Lowell TC 82.8   Greater Philadelphia TC 81.8  Silverbacks 79.6
Bowerman TC 79.2   Shore AC 75.2

But that won't happen; some runners will have a break-out race while others will struggle more than expected or may not even run. The analysis suggests that Boulder is likely to finish closer to Atlanta this time but Atlanta still appears to have a slight edge. If Tom McCormack runs much faster than last time, the gap will be larger. But if he does not submit a time, Boulder could win. If Sayre is further along in his rehab than I allowed for and he cracks a 38:30 or better, that will close things up. And a lot of small changes can add up. Even with Dan King at the top of his game, it seems unlikely Athletics Boulder can quite stay with the top two teams. But they should be able to edge Lowell for the final podium spot. Muse can make things interesting for Lowell if he can run faster than I suppose, a 40:00 for example. Lowell has a shot at the podium, no doubt. Greater Philadelphia could move up past Lowell if I am right about Muse, but wrong about Dykes. Over the last few years, Dykes has been a master at recovering from setbacks, running ultra long trail runs on a Sunday and then running a fast 8K the following Saturday. If his PF eases up, it is not impossible that he could give it a go and run. He ran his two 5K's last year in 19:23 and 19:54. If he ran 21:00 or so he could grade in the mid-80's and raise his team's average by a point, pulling them roughly even with Greater Lowell. There will, no doubt, be many surprises. Most have already run their virtual races but I do not know the results of gtheir efforts. It will be fascinating to see the outcome tomorrow evening. What a great idea to spice thing sup for the Masters Running community!


 

4 comments:

  1. I'm afraid you've mixed up two David Andersons. I, the one on the Silverbacks, did run that 30K and the 23:41 5K you mentioned. Two years ago I actually ran a sub-22:30, but that was a PR.
    Meanwhile, I skipped XC Club Nats last year. I ran in 2015 and felt good just to be in the middle quarter of the pack. I also ran in Spokane in 2018, but I was working through an injury and only went because it was in our state and to root on our 70+ speedsters, who were running for the Eastside Runners. (Many Silverbacks are changing club affiliations this year. But that's another story.)
    Thanks for putting this together. Sorry our common names make it more difficult.

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  2. Great write-up Paul. I can confirm that on the Greater Philly team you have identified the correct Tim Conheady & Mark Carver. Thanks

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