June 18, 2023 From Southern California to New England, from Oregon to Florida, folks are converging on Indianapolis for the 2023 1 Mile Championships. The first preview focused on record opportunities and there are many. This will focus on the individual Overall and Age Division Championships. The field is somewhat smaller than last year but very comparable to the years in Flint. The fields are very strong though; there will be excellent competition, as you will see below.
Conditions, followed by Overall, then Age Divisions, Age Grading and finally Teams.
CONDITIONS: Course As noted earlier, the course is certified, flat, and record eligible. Rob Mullett, Senior Events Manager for the race noted that the road was paved between last year's race and this one. He added that the two 90-degree turns are not as sharp as they first appear, that runners can soften them by pursuing a soft curve on the cross-over street, St. Clair, in front of the Main Library. Mullett, a sub-4-minute miler in his day, speculated that the new course is not only record eligible but may be as fast or faster than the old 'straight-shot' course down Meridian Street. The turns break it up a bit. There will be a clock and timing mat at the halfway point and a Volunteer has been found to call out splits at the quarter mile.
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| It's All Out from Here to the Finish! |
Weather The current projection for Saturday during the Masters races is for clear skies and mid-to-upper 70's temperatures with relative humidity below 70% and a dew point of 61. That would be warm for races of 10 Km and up but for a mile, it seems fine. By one standard that is on the borderline between comfortable and slightly uncomfortable [too warm]for some runners. Winds are forecast to be in the low range under 5 mph, but with possible gusts up to 8 mph. This race is in the Midwest and like most places, weather forecasts can change from day to day. But, all in all, most runners will be happy to run a Mile in these conditions.
OVERALL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS
WOMEN The top entrant thus far is Katie Sherron Tallahassee FL; Gulf Winds TC, who won the Masters Women's Race overall at the 2022 edition of Club Cross in Tallahassee. On April 15 she ran 17:34 on the Palace Saloon 5K, a certified course in Tallahassee. The last 2600 meters are a straight shot, so it is not record eligible even though it drops way less than a meter per kilometer. The course could be fast. If not, that 17:34 suggests Sherron should be able to run a mile in something close to 5:00 flat. Her closest competition should come from Angela Giuliani Irving TX; Unattached. Giuliani finished 4th in the 35-39 division last year at the Fifth Avenue Mile in 5:16. Her Athlinks profile is private. The most recent result I can find from other sources is from 2015 when she ran 38:41 at the AJC Peachtree Road Race at the age of 32. That is roughly consistent with a 5:16 to 5:20 if we assume Giuliani is more competitive at shorter distances or is more fit now than in 2015. Giuliani finished 3 seconds ahead of Fiona Bayly New York, NY; Unattached at the Fifth Avenue Mile. Bayly, out of the 55-59 division, is one of the most competitive long-distance runners in America right now. Current holder of the 8km and 15 Km American 55-59 Records, Bayly has been an Overall podium threat at every Masters National Championship she has contested this season. She finished 5th overall at the 5 Km in Atlanta in 18:37 (chip), 4th at the Ten-Mile in Sacramento in 1:03:06, 4th in the Half Marathon, and then 3rd at the 10 Km Championships in Dedham MA in 38:10. Bayly took first in her division at the fifth avenue Mile in 5:19! Bayly is no stranger to the podium at Masters National 1 Mile Championships. She finished 2nd overall at Flint Michigan in 2019. It should be almost impossible to do that well this year at the age of 55, but I doubt anyone could convince Bayly of that.
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| Jennifer Bigham and Michelle Rohl lead the Women's Wave at the 2022 USATF Masters 1 Mile Championships at the Rochester Mile Photo courtesy of GVH |
Jennifer Harvey New York, NY; Central Park Track Club-Tracksmith could also make a run at the podium. She ran a 5:23 Indoor Mile in early March at the NY Road Runners 'Night at the Races.' Last July she ran a 5:29 at the Liberty Mile in Pittsburgh. Hidi Gaff Ft. Wayne IN; Three Rivers Racing finished 6th overall at the Masters 5 Km championships in Atlanta in 18:39 (chip). The Age Grade equivalent for the 1 Mile is 5:21, which should be fast enough to put her in the mix. Bayly edged her by 2 seconds in that race. Gaff's two indoor track efforts that bookend that 5 Km, raise some questions about that equivalence. On January 7th, Gaff ran a mile indoors at the Twilight Indoor Chicago Meet in 5:38. In mid-March, she ran a 5:12.97 1500M finishing 3rd in her 25-44 heat of the Masters Indoor Championships in Louisville, 1st 40+ Masters in the heat, 3rd Masters 40+ over all heats. That, interestingly, is also equivalent to a 5:38. The key for the slower times is either strategic racing or running more than one race in a short time. In Chicago. Gaff also turned in a 10:59 3000 Meter Run in the same evening. In Louisville, she ran a 10:39.91 3000M on Friday evening and the 1500M run the next afternoon. And on June 10th, Gaff ripped off a 17:58 5K at the Brian Diemer 5K in Grand Rapids, taking 1st Masters. That 17:58 equates to a 5:09. The Brian Diemer race is known as one of the fastest 5K races in the Midwest, but that result adds weight to the notion that Gaff, at the top her game now, is likely to cross the finish line in something under 5:20! Abby Dean Wilmington DE; Greater Philadelphia TC, the 2022 Masters National Grand Prix 50-54 Champion, finished 6th overall last year at Rochester in 5:33. She has multiple age division wins already in 2023. A longshot to make the podium, Dean cannot be counted out. In late May, she ran the Memorial Main Street Mile in 5:24. The 18:51 she turned in at the Haddonfield Adrenaline 5K in March is also consistent with that kind of time. Perry Shoemaker Vienna VA; unattached has made a name for herself at longer distances. She claimed the Overall win at the first set of USATF Masters 12 Km Championships in Alexandria VA, from 2013-15. Her winning time improved each year, from 44:14 to 42:54, and, finally, 42:04. It was a similar story with the Credit Union Cherry Blossom Ten Mile Run. Shoemaker took 1st Masters in 2016 with a 1:00:53, skipped 2017, but then came back and took 1st Masters in 2017 in 58:56. The next year, the 'smart money' was on the Olympic Marathon Bronze medalist from 2004, Deena Kastor, but Shoemaker proved them wrong by improving her time yet again, coming in well ahead of Kastor in 57:29 and taking the 45-49 age group win from Kastor as well. After a few years away from the Masters LDR circuit, Shoemaker surfaced in 2021 as a 50-year-old, finishing 3rd overall in the Masters 12 Km National Championships, and taking first in her new age division in 46:09. And here she is again, ready to contest the Mile. Her most recent credits include a 2nd among 40+ Masters in the 3000 Meters at the recent National Masters Indoor Championships in Louisville, with a 10:07.36 clocking. Two days later she was the first woman to finish the Lucky Leprechaun 5K in Virg0inia, with a time of 18:08. A week later she took the Masters crown at Cherry Blossom yet again with a 1:00:37. The 18:08, if the course is well measured, represents an equivalent of a 5:12 Mile. The 3000M time is also consistent with Shoemaker covering a mile in well under 5:20. That suggests that Doreen McCoubrie's 5:18 American Record for this age division might be at risk. Shoemaker had not entered when my earlier piece on record attempts was created.
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| Katie Sherron takes the win in the Masters Women's Race at the 2021 USATF Club Cross Country Championships in Tallahassee FL Photo courtesy of Michael Scott |
I will go with Sherron-Gaff-Giuliani in that order. Bayly defeated Gaff by a single second gun time and by two seconds chip time at the Masters 5 km Championships. I am guessing that the longer distance, relative to the mile, and the hilly finish in Atlanta worked in Bayly's favor. Perhaps I am wrong? Bayly, Dean, Harvey or Shoemaker can prove it out on the course!
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Hidi Gaff Angela Giuliani Katie Sherron
MEN The top favorite is Mark Guyer Fishers, IN; Indiana Elite AC. As a 39-year-old in 2022, Guyer christened the new Monumental Mile course with a swift 4:24.05 which rounds, by rule, for road events, to a 4:25. That was good for the win in the Open Division. He recently ran a 1:14:57 Half Marathon and a 2:29:12 Marathon. In late 2021, he clocked 16:09 in a 5k, and last summer, ran 16:34 in a 3.17 Mile Run (Area code for Indianapolis). That 3.17 Mile Run equates to a 16:13 5K. Split those two and their age-graded mile equivalent is 4:46. That calculat1ion suggests that Guyer is either much faster at the Mile than the 5K or that the Mile course at Indy is super0 fast! Either way, the prime contenders should take hope from the fact that Guyer's other recent efforts are not quit0e as spectacular as that 4:25 Mile. One of Guyer's Indiana Elite teammates, Bryan Lindsay, Zionsville, IN; Indiana Elite AC, was a standout middle distance runner for BYU. He ran a 3:38.31 to finish 2nd in the 1500 meters at the 2005 NCAA Outdoor Championships. More recently he took the overall title at the Masters 5 Km Championships in Atlanta in 2022. His time, 15:35, was on a course that is 'Atlanta Flat' meaning, 'kinda hilly.' He won convincingly with an 11 second margin of victory. That 15:35 equates to a 4:36. But we would expect to see a faster time from Lindsay on a flat course. Lindsay finished 9th, at 4:21, in the Men's Elite Wave of the 2017 Monumental Mile, when he was 36. Another of Guyer's teammates, Thomas Burns Westfield IN; Indiana Elite AC just ran a 4:16.9 1500 Meter at the USATF Indoor Championships in March in Louisville, converting to a 4:38 Mile. Burns finished 2nd, 0.6 seconds ahead of Jaret Herter Rochester, NY; Genesee Valley Harriers GVH . Herter was 3rd overall last year at the 1 Mile Championships in Rochester; he will try to reverse the finishing order with Burns in Louisville and move up on the podium. Herter's time in Rochester was 4:35 but he ran two seconds faster at the Fifth Avenue Mile and 6 seconds faster at the Main Street Mile in Pennsylvania last summer.
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| Start of Masters Men's Race at the 2022 USATF Masters 1 Mile in Rochester NY Photo by M. Nier courtesy o fGVH |
Two athletes from 45-49 and one from 50-54 deserve mention even if they are longshots to make the overall podium. David Angell Blue Ridge VA, unattached finished 3rd at the 2017 1 Mile Masters Championships in 4:39. Angell struggled to deal with long-standing foot and ankle issues over 2021 to 2022 but appears to have turned the corner. He ran 33:15 at the 10 km Masters championships in Dedham MA at the end of April, finishing 3rd overall. That would suggest an upper 4:40's time. Interestingly enough, Angell clocked 15:48 at the Braveheart 5K in Virginia; if he could match that age grade in a mile, it would come out the same 4:39 time he clocked in 2017. Jasen Ritter Indianapolis IN; Indiana Elite AC finished 5th at the 2022 5 Km Masters Championships in Atlanta with a 16:01 (chip). If he can match that effort on Saturday, he should come in under 4:45 and perhaps under the 4:44 he ran on the straight-shot Monumental Mile course in 2021. Ritter's speed has not diminished. He clocked 15:58 at the Colts Back to Football 5K in August of last year. Mike Madsen Flagstaff AZ; Team Run Flagstaff is coming to town with his eye on the 50-54 One Mile American Record of 4:40. In looking for a piece of data that would suggest a good chance, I noticed his 4:46 performance last 4th of July at the Downtown Flagstaff Mile. Mid 4:40's does not sound that fast until you remember that Flagstaff is at almost 7,000 feet. The course is basically two loops around a square. The NCAA has an altitude adjustment converter for races run at altitude. Applying that suggests the 4:46 is equivalent to a sea level 4:36! Interestingly Madsen ran a second slower than that in finishing 2nd Overall in the Masters 1 Mile Championship in Flint MI in 2019.
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| Bryan Lindsay takes the Overall Win at the 2022 USATF Masters 5 Km Championsh5ips at the PUBLIX Atlanta Marathon Weekend 5K Photo by Marathon Photo courtesy of Atlanta Track Club |
Angell, Ritter and Madsen are long shots for the podium, but no one should ignore them! It is tempting to put Lindsay, with his NCAA pedigree, ahead of Guyer, but running a 4:24 and change on this Monumental Mile course should get Guyer the favorite's mantel. If Lindsay, Burns and Herter run true to form, it could be an Indiana Elite sweep. I will go with Guyer-Lindsay-Burns and give Herter the incentive to break them up and land on the podium! And watch out for Angell, Ritter and Madsen; they won't be far back!
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Thomas Burns Mark Guyer Bryan Lindsay
AGE DIVISION NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS
MEN
40-44 If the analysis of the Overall Championships pans out, then Guyer, Lindsay and Burns will go 1-2-3 in this division, in that order, as well. Jaret Herter will try to break up the Indiana Elite trio. He was only a second behind Burns at their most recent meeting. Chris Bielsa-Brown clocked a 4:51 in the Grand Blue Mile in April; he should run faster in June in Indy. His recent set of 5K's in the 15:59 to 16:31 range confirm the potential to go under 4:45. Mike Olson ran two 5K's last summer. The early one was 16:57, the late one 16:03. If the 16:03 Olson shows up he will be right there pushing the pace with Bielsa-Brown, taking no prisoners, keeping the rest of the entrants honest!
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Thomas Burns Mark Guyer Bryan Lindsay
45-49 David Angell and Jasen Ritter were highlighted in the analysis of the Overall Championships as having a podium chance. If Angell's return to competition continues on its trajectory a low 4:40's to high 4:30's is possible. If Angell can get there, he should be able to close down Ritter's shot at a division win.
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| David Angell winning the overall Title at the 2018 USATF Masters 5 Km Championships at the Atlanta's Finest 5K Photo by Jason Getz, courtesy of Atlanta Track Club |
Ritter ran a 4:44 at the Monumental Mile in 2021. The following year, Ritter finished 2nd in the division at the Masters 5 Km Championships, in 16:02. Six months later he ran a 15:58 at the Colts Return to Football 5K. Both suggest a low 4:40's was capable then. Low 4:40's might be just short of what it will take to win the division. Jonathan Bishard Kansas City MO; KC Smoke and Christopher Hernandez Charleston SC; GVH will be in the crunch for the final podium spot. A year ago, Bishard clocked 4:36.95 at the Music City Distance Classic MCDC. But at the Masters0 TF Indoor Championships this March, Bishard came up short, finishing 5th 45-49 in the 1500M in 4:26.4. His time converts to a 4:48 Mile. But Hernandez was 2nd in the division in that same race, ahead of Bishard by 2 seconds. If Bishard can kindle the spark that got him to the line in 4:37 at MCDC, he can have a big day. But, as of now, it looks like Hernandez is the one to beat for the final podium spot. He would repeat his 3rd place finish at Rochester a year ago when he ran it the mile in 4:48. What about Matthew Di Pretore Newtown Square PA; Greater Philadelphia TC. Di Pretore, 44 at the time, ran 5 seconds faster than Hernandez in the 2022 Masters 5 Km Championships in Atlanta. That would carry more weight if Hernandez had not come in 7 seconds ahead of Di Pretore at the Rochester Mile six months later. I will opt for Hernandez on the final step of the podium. That gives me Angell-Ritter-Hernandez in that order.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
David Angell Christopher Hernandez Jasen Ritter
50-54 This division should belong to Mike Madsen Flagstaff AZ; Team Run Flagstaff, who is coming down from the mountains seeking to lower the 50-54 American Road Mile record below 4:40. According to the NCAA calculator, Madsen's 4:46 at the downtown Flagstaff Mile at 7000 feet is equivalent to a 4:36 at sea level. But Madsen also knows his own fitness and has opted for the attempt. In 2019 he went to Flint MI for the 1 Mile championships and came within a fraction of a second of the Overall victory. He probably will not get the Overall victory this year either, but he should get the division win easily and, more importantly, the record. It would taste so sweet!
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| Mike Madsen winding it up in the final spring to the finish at the 2019 USATF Masters 1 Mile Championships at the Michigan Mile Photo courtesy of the HAP Crim Festival of Races |
No one else in the field at present seems a threat to break 5:00. Jason Newport Avon IN; Indiana TC should come the closest; he christened this course with a 5:10 last year. Newport did not have a great outing at the Masters 5 km Championships in Atlanta this year, finishing 13th in the division in 19:40. Six months earlier he had run an 18:56 at the JMF RWR 5K. In November 2021, Andrew Hector Indianapolis IN; Indiana Elite AC ran an 18:26 at the Indianapolis Monumental Marathon 5K. That was equivalent, at the time, to a 5:25. But his more recent 5K's have been in the 19:14 to 19:30 range, very similar to those of Matthew Cutrona Wilmington DE; Greater Philadelphia TC up through early March. Cutrona was ten seconds back from Newport in Atlanta but has posted two impressive times since then. He ran 18:48 in the Haddonfield NJ 5K and posted a 5:13.65 at the Memorial Main Street Mile in May. And last year, Cutrona posted a 5:07 at the Main Street Mile after finishing 9th in the division with a 5:12 at Rochester. Newport still looks the better bet for 2nd, but Cutrona should be right there! If either Newport or Cutrona has a tough day, Hector could be the surprise athlete on the podium! I am looking for Madsen-Newport-Cutrona, in that order.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Matthew Cutrona Mike Madsen Jason Newport
55-59 Like Madsen in 50-54, Christian 'Cush' Cushing-murray Orange CA; Cal Coast TC is flying in from the west, focused on an American Record try. He went to Portland a couple of weeks ago to have a try for the 55-59 Track Record but came up just short at 4:39.28. Here Cushing-murray goes after the 4:49 road mile record, set by Nat Larson at Flint in 2017. Check out the previous article on these championships for Cushing-Murray's pedigree as a sub-4-minute miler in the 1990's, his 6th place finish in the US Olympic 1500 M Trials, and international competition. More recent exploits as a Masters athlete include his 50-54 win at age 54, of the 2022 USATF Masters 5 Km Championships in Atlanta off a 16:43 (chip) effort. Three months later he took the same division title at Carlsbad in 16:27. Whether Cush can get the record or not, and it looks like a good shot, he should take the win in the division and have a chance at an age grade prize as well.
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| Christian Cushing-Murray takes the 55-59 win and a Top Ten Age Grading Overall at the 2023 USATF Masters 5 Km Championships in Atlanta Photo By Joaquin Lara courtesy of the Atlanta Track Club |
Todd Straka Broomfield CO; Boullder Road Runners should break 5:00 with room to spare. He chased Cushing-Murray around the track at Portland, clocking a 4:52. The last time Straka ran in a national championship road mile, he took 2nd in 4:56 at Flint MI in 2019. Last summer, Straka took 2nd in 55-59 at the Masters Outdoor Championships in 4:39. This March he went a few seconds faster in nabbing another silver medal at the Masters Indoor Championships in 4:35; that is age grade equivalent to a 4:57. Straka will surely break 5:00. Is there anyone else? At Flint in 2019, Straka finished 2 seconds ahead of Jeffrey Conston Hopewell Jct, NY; Shore AC and 4 seconds ahead of John Borthwick Dillon CO; Boulder Road Runners. At Rochester last year, Conston finished 6th in 50-54 at 5:07. That would have been 4th in 55-59, right behind Borthwick in 5:05. Conston is running well this winter and spring. He clocked 18:09 for 5th 55-59 at Atlanta in the 5K. Apart from his duels with Conston, Borthwick picked up a 5:12 at the end of April at the Grand Blue Mile. He should be ready for a 5:10 or better in Indy; the temperature in Des Moines was 60F, according to Athlinks. At Outdoor Masters Nationals last summer, Mike Nier came in six seconds behind Straka, but twelve seconds ahead of Borthwick, taking 6th place 55-59 in the 1500M in 4:45, which equates to a 5:08. The final order should be: Cushing-murray- Straka- Nier. Borthwick and Conston will be battling each other and, should any of the favorites have an off day, the victor of the battle might find himself on the podium.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Christian Cushing-Murray Mike Nier Todd Straka
60-64 Some of the biggest names in the division are entered. Three of those are: Rick Lee, Dan King, and Joe Mora. Prior to 2020, King was known primarily for his Cross Country prowess; starting in 2015 when he won his 55-59 division at both Cross Nationals and Club Cross, King was always a podium threat on the turf. In 2020, King started focusing his attention and energy on breaking the Outdoor Mile Record for Men 60-64. He came close at the Music City Distance Carnival in 2021 with a 4:57.27. On July 18, 2021, King had the record when he ran 4:51.45. No stranger to Road Miles, King has competed at the Pearl Street Mile, the Mile High Mile and the Fifth Avenue Mile. King has struggled with injury since last1 year; his outing at the Fifth Avenue Mile was an experience but not as fast as he would normally have expected. King ran 5:12 at the Portland Track Festival. Disappointed with his time, he has had very solid workouts since then. I am sure he hopes to be under 5:10, and maybe under 5:05. Rick Lee is a runner who not only knows no boundaries but seeks out unusual races. He has raced across the Sahara and just two weekends ago completed the 55 Mile Comrade's (Ultra) Marathon from Pietermaritzburg to Durban in South Africa. His recovery turnaround time after races is as amazing as his choice of races. He thinks nothing of running a 5K soon after an ultra. And he does them all at high quality. he is the 60-64 American record holder at 50K, 3:31:44, and the 50 Mile, 6:27:30. Despite that prowess at long distances, Lee won the 60-64 Half Marathon Championship last year and took 2nds at the 10 Km and 1 Mile Championships, the latter in 5:04 at Rochester. This year he won the 5 km Championship in Atlanta with a time of 17:31, which equates to a 5:09. A big question will be whether Lee still has the Comrades Marathon in his legs, especially his quads. [It was the downhill year for Comrades.] The runner Lee lost to in Rochester last year is Joe Mora, a much more traditional middle-distance guy on the track who runs Cross Country and longer road distances for his team. If he can stay close to Lee in the mile or the 5Km, he is likely to win with a kick. Mora won at Rochester last year but the times, when rounded were the same. At Atlanta in 2022, Mora was able to kick away from Lee to take the win. When Lee won this year, Mora was not entered, but Lee's time was 20 seconds faster than in 2022. Those three should battle for the win. Nothing is ever certain though.
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| Rick Lee heading for the Finish and the 60-64 Win at the 2021 USATF Masters 12 Km Championships in Highlands NJ Photo courtesy of Jason Timochko |
In 2017, Dave Bussard Elkhart IN; CHT Elite finished 2nd in 55-59 at the Flint MI National Masters championships in 5:01. During the Covid suspension of races and after, Bussard was rehabbing. But last year he started to turn in mid-18:00 5K's and last weekend recorded a 17:42 at the Brian Diemer 5K; that equates to a 5:12 Mile. His teammate, Eric Stuber Lansing MI; CHT Elite, finished 3rd in 55-59 at the 2018 1 Mile national championships. Stuber ran several local Michigan 5K's this past summer and fall in the 18:02 to 18:20 range, suggesting he should crack 5:20 and might go faster. Both will push the pace and if anyone is off their best, could crack onto the podium. Mark Zamek Minneapolis MN; Shore AC also deserves mention. Zamek won the 2019 1 Mile National 55-59 title in Flint Michigan with a 4:55. He had been rehabbing various nagging injuries for months leading into this year. Zamek seemed to be on the road to full recovery. Although not quite as fast as he would like, Zamek finished 4th in Atlanta with a 17:47 and then was able to run a 36:12 at the 10 Km national championship to take 3rd in 60-64 at the end of April. He started to ramp up his training for the Outdoor track season. Within a week, he announced increased pain during workouts, with a diagnosis shortly thereafter of Proximal Hamstring Tendinopathy PHT. That has progressed off and on, and Zamek had hoped to race full out on Saturday. His most recent assessment is to run at 'tempo' pace to finish for the team. Tim Mylin Noblesville IN; Indiana Elite AC is running for the Indiana 50's team. He was a solid sub-18 5K runner up through his mid-50's. He has apparently raced less frequently in recent years. But he ran a 5:21 at the 2021 Monumental Mile and last summer clocked 19:02 to win 60-64 easily at the certified and sanctioned JMF RWR 5K. Saturday will probably be his first challenging age division race in some time. It will be interesting to see what he can do.
Despite the uncertainty, the most likely podium seems to be: Mora-Lee-King, possibly in that order.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Dan King Rick Lee Joe Mora
65-69 Early on it appeared that this division would belong to David Westenberg Wellesley MA; Greater Lowell Road Runners. Not only had he won the division at Cross Nationals in Richmond VA and at the 10 Km in Dedham MA, he set the Indoor Mile and 1500M records for 65-69 this past winter. He ran a 5:10.61 Mile on December 3rd. He would be going after Tom Bernhard's 5:18 Mile Record.
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| David Westenberg heading fo rthe 65-69 Win at the 2023 USATF Masters 10 Km Championships Photo posted on FB by D Westenberg |
But then Jacob Nur Elk Grove CA; SRA Elite entered. Nur currently holds 65-69 records at the Half Marathon, 1:18; the Ten Mile, 58:34; the 10 Km, 35:42; and the 5 km, 17:00. Nur ran that 5 km last November; it is age grade equivalent to running a 4:59 Mile. But equating down from 5 Km, already at the short end of Nur's range, to a 1 Mile, suggests a wider band of uncertainty. Nur ran the first 1-mile race I can find for him on May 8th. At the Mile of Truth in Danville CA, he ran 5:19. That could be due to his fast twitch muscles not being as trained as his slow-twitch endurance muscles. Or perhaps he ran it tentatively as a test and did not go all out. He ran in the 50+ heat, finishing 5th and beating all 60+ athletes by a wide margin. On the other hand, there were other Masters 50+ athletes there to compete with. I think the distance still favors Westenberg, but no one would be that surprised to see Nur crack one off and go under 5:10. If so, the race is his!
The 65-69 field is deep. Michael Lebold was able to defeat Westenberg in the 800 meters at the Indoor Nationals. If this race were a Half Mile rather than a Mile, Lebold might be the favorite. Roger Sayre Golden CO; Boulder Road Runners is a high-altitude runner. Sayre ran a 5:43 at the Carnation Mile in the Denver area last August. The NCAA altitude adjustment calculation puts that as equivalent to a 5:35 at sea level. Sayre finished 2nd at the 5 Km in Atlanta in 18:24. That suggests a faster time for Sayre is possible, perhaps in the mid 5:20's. In 1984, Fred Torneden set a new course record when he won the Twin Cities Marathon in 2:11:34 and set the American record for the 20 Mile distance along the way. He has not been active in national Masters events until recently. At the Masters Indoor Championships in early March, Torneden ran a 5:06.56 1500 Meters, finishing second, seven seconds behind Westenberg. That time is age grade equivalent to a 5:32. He showed he might be a little faster than that when he ran a 5:30 at the Ad Astra Running Irish road mile a week later. Reno Stirrat Rockaway NJ; Shore AC has been coming into championships banged up or in rehab with some uncertainty about how he would do. But he has held up well in the actual race. Despite having to stop and walk on occasion, he still took 4th in the division at the Half Marathon championships and 5th at the highly competitive 10 Km Championships in Dedham. Last year, Stirrat ran for the team despite his injuries; Stirrat is a Master at competing when hurt but figuring out where the dial should be, so he does not set back a rehab effort. This year, this rehab stretch may be over; Stirrat has been training well recently. With the depth of the field; it would be an incredible accomplishment for Stirrat to make the podium. He will certainly run his best for the team and who knows what might happen? I will go with a predicted order of Westenberg-Nur-Sayre. If Torneden was still in his 'build' phase in March, he could be much faster, given his past accomplishments, on Saturday!
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Jacob Nur Roger Sayre David Westenberg
70-74 Robert Qualls finished 3rd at the 1500 Meter Run in the WMA (World) Championships last June in 5:12.18, which equates to a 5:38 Mile. Since then, he has been the 70-74 champion at every cross country and road championship from the 5 Km to the Half Marathon. At Rochester last May he finished 2nd to track legend, Nolan Shaheed, 5:39 to 5:40. His win in Atlanta over a hilly 5Km in 20:02 suggests a time around 5:53. But it seems more likely Qualls will come across the line under 5:50.
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| Robert Qualls winning the 70-74 Race at the 2022 Masters 12 Km National Championships in Hig0hlands NJ Photo courtesy of Jason Timochko |
If so, no one is likely to be too close. Doug Bell Greeley CO; Boulder RR, Doug Chesnut Keller TX; Boulder RR, and James Linn Harleysville PA; New Jersey Pacers appear to be closely matched. At Rochester last year, Bell finished 5th in the division at 6:06; his 3rd place finish in Atlanta in February at 20:51 equates to a 6:07. I look for Bell to go under 6:05 and maybe 6:00 if his training has been going well. Chesnut has been a step ahead of Bell for much of the past year. He finished 8 seconds ahead of Bell in Atlanta, claiming 2nd behind Qualls. Whether that can translate to the Mile is an open question. I do not find any recent efforts from Chesnut shorter than the 5K. Linn, on the other hand, has run a few road miles this year already. He ran both the Mile and the 10K at the Ridgewood Run, clocking 43 and change for the 10K and 6:11 for the Mile. That being part of a double suggests he could run faster. At the RUNway Mile on June 10th, Linn did; he clocked 6:02. In 2018, Kirk Larson Atlanta GA; Atlanta TC finished 2nd in 65-69 at 5:55. But this year, Larson was a half-minute behind Chesnut and Bell at the 5 Km, suggesting something in the 6:10 to 6:15 range would be more likely. Keeping that in mind, it looks like Qualls-Linn-Chesnut, with Bell and, possibly Larson, looking to prove me wrong!
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Doug Chesnut James Linn Robert Qualls
75-79 Were this 5 Km or up, I would have no hesitation in suggesting Dave Glass as the winner by a good margin. He has been winning everything in sight this year except when Gary Ostwald shows up. He still comes in ahead of everyone else. Ostwald is not entered in the Mile. Glass won the 75-79 5 Km in Atlanta in 22:54, over a half minute ahead of Keith Yeates in 2nd.
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| Dave Glass heading for the 75-79 Win at the 2023 USATF Masters Half Marathon Championships in Syracuse NY Photo courtesy of Syracuse Half marathon |
When they have run together in the same race over the last half year, Yeates has finished in front of his teammate, Jim May. Yet last year, when Glass was running as well as he has this year, May was able to beat Glass by a step, taking 2nd in 6:34 to Glass's 6:35. Does that mean that both Yeates and May will beat Glass this year? It seems doubtful. Yeates was well back from May and Glass last year so the Mile may not be his best event. May got out fast in the 10Km; Glass did eventually catch and pass him, coming in well ahead. But 10 Km is more Glass's distance so May again showed the possibility that he might have greater leg speed available for short distances. Jan Frisby is always a threat at the Mile but he is a scratch due to an inner Ear problem that cropped up over the last couple of days. The only other runners who might be close are Liam Finnigan Farmington NY; GVH and me, Paul Carlin Three Oaks MI; Ann Arbor TC. Finnigan was running for the team last year when not at his best, but he beat me by a couple of seconds at the 10 Km championships a month earlier. Still, even if he can run with me, it would be doubtful that we can run with Glass, May and Yeates. I finished 5th last year at Rochester in 7:15, and my 3rd place finish at Atlanta was in 24:30. That 5K time is age grade equivalent to a 7:11. In 2017, I took 2nd in 70-74 at 6:16. But even if I could recapture that speed, it would only equate to a 6:54 at 77. It should take a 6:40 or better to make the podium. I will go with May-Glass-Yeates, and give Glass an extra incentive to run hard!
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Dave Glass Jim May Keith Yeates
80-84 Masters Hall of Famer, Doug Goodhue Milford MI; Ann Arbor TC rarely loses in this division. Even though he had difficulty with a dicey hamstring at Atlanta, he still won in 26:27. That equates to a 7:45. Ed Bligh Alpharetta GA; Atlanta TC finished 2 minutes behind Goodhue in 2nd. That time equates to an 8:21. Bligh's teammate, Charlie Patterson Mount Ida AR; Atlanta TC ran an 8:06.5 1500M at the Masters TF+ Indoor Championships this March. MileSplit converts that to an 8:45 Mile. There are always uncertainties in every race but I have no reason to suggest anything other than Goodhue-Bligh-Patterson in that order.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Ed Bligh Doug Goodhue Charlie Patterson
85-89 Adrian Craven Greenville SC; Atlanta TC took the 85-89 division last year at Rochester in 10:40, beating his teammate, Sid Davis. Davis will not challenge him this year. He did not enter; nor did anyone else. Craven will take the win. It will be interesting to see if he can better his time this year or not.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Adrian Craven
WOMEN
40-44 If the analysis of the Overall championship turns out to be accurate, then Sherron, Giuliani and Gaff should go 1-2-3.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Hidi Gaff Angela Giuliani Katie Sherron
45-49 The two favorites seem to be Julie Mercado Springboro OH; Dayton Track Club and Euleen Josiah-Tanner Atlanta GA; T.H.E. Track Club. On June 30th last year Mercado ran 5:33 in the Dash for Cash Mile. That gave her the Masters win and 4th woman overall. A month later she finished 5th 40+ Masters at the 1500M run at the Masters TF Outdoor Championships with a 5:13. That converts, via the MileSplit calculator to a 5:39. But Mercado should be capable of a faster mile without having to run with a 19:05 5000 meter run in her legs. Mercado's 5K's this spring have ranged from 19:28 to 20:28; the fastest of those, on Memorial Day weekend, equates to a 5:35. That evidence confirms the projection of a low 5:30's mile effort on Saturday. Josiah-Tanner will push Mercado for the win. She took 3rd in the division at the Masters 5 Km Championships with a 19:20, equating to a 5:33. At the World Masters Athletics WMA Indoor Championships, she ran the 3000 Meters in 11:18.15, finishing 4th in this 45-49 division. If that were on the roads, it would equate to a 5:35. She also competed in two non-stadia events, the 10 Km in 39:27 and the Half Marathon in 1:26:28. If it comes down to endurance, Josiah-Tanner probably has the edg0e; if it comes down to speed, Mercado may have the edge.
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| Euleen Josiah-Tanner finishing 4th for the USA in the Half Marathon at the 2023 World Masters Athletics Championships in Finland Photo courtesy of Todd Straka |
Yasamin Dahlstrom Indianapolis IN; unattached and Hiroko Guarneri Villa Rica GA; Atlanta TC should battle for the final podium position. Dahlstrom ran 6:23 on this course last year. A month later, Dahlstrom posted a 26:35 time for a 6K race; that equates to a 6:20. Guarneri counters with a 22:50 for 10th place in the division at the Masters 5 Km national championships in Atlanta. That equates to a 6:33 Mile. As noted earlier, the 5Km course in Atlanta is comparatively challenging. I could imagine it being equivalent on a flatter course to something closer to 22:40. and that would be equivalent to 6:30. I am largely ignoring a 6:56 in the Spring Midweek Mile & Dash on May 10th. That was primarily an event for youth and the course meanders around a large park in Atlanta. Was Guarnieri running all out or was she doing it as a workout before or after a daughter or son, perhaps, was running in the main event? My guess is that Dahlstrom has the edge because she has run a faster recent Mile than Guarnieri. She also is familiar with the course. My picks: Mercado--Josiah-Tanner--Dahlstrom to go 1-2-3.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Yasamin Dahlstrom Euleen Josiah-Tanner Julie Mercado
50-54 Abby Dean and Perry Shoemaker were featured in the analysis of the Overall Championship. The time projections for Dean and Shoemaker suggest that Shoemaker should have the edge, but it will be a close race either way.
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| Perry Shoemaker kicking it in for the 50-54 win at the 2021 USATF Masters 12 Km Championships in Highlands NJ Photo courtesy of Jason Timochko. |
At the moment, Cassandra Crane Chittenango NY; GVH is a strong runner but is not likely to challenge Shoemaker and Dean. Her eyes are on the team prize, in any case. Crane competes mostly in longer races, from the 10 Km to the Half Marathon. She finished 8th in the division at the Masters 10 Km championships in 46:57, helping her GVH team to a 50+ win. Crane ran a 31:32 4-Miler this past March at the Tipperary Hill race; that equates roughly to a 6:58 Mile. Her 10 Km time suggests a stronger mile than that, perhaps closer to a 6:35. But it is tricky equating from a race that is 6 times as long. Either way Crane would not be close to 2nd place but will make a real contribution to the team effort. Prediction: Shoemaker to win, Dean 2nd, and Crane 3rd place.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Cassandra Crane Abby Dean Perry Shoemaker
55-59 Fiona Bayly and Jennifer Harvey were mentioned as contenders for the overall win, out of the 55-59 age division. How amazing is that?! The analysis of the overall contest does not indicate a finishing order for these two. Despite being in contention, I do not predict that either will, in the end, make it onto the podium. Bayly has the faster recent mile, her 5:19 at the Fifth Avenue Mile. Harvey did not compete that year, but the year before Harvey clocked 5:17 at the Fifth Avenue Mile, to win the 50-54 division. Bayly did not compete that year. However, Bayly has not competed in a race this year shorter than 5 Km; Harvey has competed on the Indoor track and at the Grand Blue Mile. Will those matter as tune-ups? It looks like a 'barn burner' of a race. it will come down to the runner who has the better day. Lisa Veneziano Fenton MI; Pursuit of Excellence TC is also in the field. She is a terrific competitor at the Mile, and a fine runner at every distance up through the Marathon. She holds the 55-59 12 Km American Record at 46:13. Veneziano finished 2nd in the division last year at Rochester in 5:40. Veneziano also finished 2nd in 50-54 at the 2019 Masters Mile Championships in Flint MI, clocking 5:35. Bayly won the division that year in 5:23, finishing 2nd overall. Bayly, by the way, holds the 55-59 American Records in the 8 Km and the 15 Km at 30:05 and 58:35.
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| Fiona Bayly claims the 50-54 Title at the 2019 USATF Masters 1 Mile Championships at the Michigan Mile in Flint MI Photo courtesy of HAP Crim Festival of Races |
Melissa Chiti Durham NC; Pursuit of Excellence TC and Roxanne Springer Durham NC; Pursuit of Excellence TC are two strong runners who are likely to run in the upper 5:50's to lower 6:00's. Chiti and Springer are likely to finish close to one another. Chiti ran a slightly faster 1500M at the WMA Indoor Championships in late March than Springer did at the USATF Masters Indoor championships in early March. The more likely podium is Bayly-Harvey-Veneziano, probably in that order, but the first two are incredibly close on paper.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Fiona Bayly Jennifer Harvey Lisa Veneziano
60-64 Suzanne La Burt Greenwood Lake NY; Shore AC, Doreen McCoubrie West Chester PA; Greater Philadelphia TC and Deb Torneden Manhattan KS; unattached go head-to-head in this division. La Burt finished 3rd last year at Rochester in 55-59 with a 5:57. A month after Rochester, La Burt clipped two seconds off that time. With a straight-shot mile ahead of her at the Fifth Avenue Mile, La Burt lowered her mark still further with a 5:41. La Burt is almost always on the podium at national championships across the distances, including a notable win at the 2022 Masters 10 Km Championships.
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| Doreen McCoubrie claims a 55-59 Silver Medal along with a Bronze Medal in Age Grading overall at the 2019 Masters 1 Mile Championsh8ips in Flint MI Photo courtesy of the HAP C=rim Festival of Races |
McCoubrie had the edge over La Burt at last year's 1 Mile championships in Rochester. McCoubrie took 2nd in 60-64 in 5:50; La Burt was 3rd in 55-59 at 5:57. McCoubrie has been active in the Mile this spring with a 5:38 at the Memorial Main St Mile at the end of May and a 5:53 at the RUNway Mile where you run on an airport runway! That suggests McCoubrie will be ready to roll on Saturday! Torneden is not far off those two; at the Masters Indoor Championships last summer, Torneden took the 60-64 1500M win in 5:36. The MileSplit calculator converts that to a 6:03 Mile. This March, Torneden confirmed that with a 6:01 at the Ad Astra Running Irish Mile in Lawrence KS. La Burt's teammate, Anything can happen, but McCoubrie-La Burt-Torneden looks to be the most likely order of finish.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Suzanne La Burt Doreen McCoubrie Deb Torneden
65-69 Susan Stirrat Rockaway NJ; Shore AC is the reigning 65-69 Individual National Grand Prix champion. She finished 3rd last year in Rochester in 7:30 and ran ten seconds slower two months later at the NJ Association Championships at the Big Bang Mile. She will have to contend with Carol Poenisch Northville MI; unattached. If this were a longer race, Poenisch would definitely be favored. Stirrat has run two half marathons this year, both around, or slightly over, 2 hours. Poenisch has run three half marathons with times ranging from 1:54:44 to 1:56:08. But this is a Mile. In 2018 she ran in the 1 Mile Championships at Flint, clocking 7:20 to take the 60-64 bronze medal. But Poenisch has no recent Mile times to examine. She has two recent 5K's, a 25:26 at the Corktown 5K in March and a 24:21 at the 'I Ran the D 5K' in May. Both are certified so the difference may be just in terms of having more speed in May than in March. Those times are faster than Stirrat's but not way faster. Stirrat, for example, finished 3rd in this division at the 5 Km national Championships in Atlanta in 25:48, at the end of February. Her most recent effort was a 26:05 in June. Overall, it looks as if Poenisch is the favorite, but it will not be a cakewalk. Stirrat could be right on her heels.
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| Carol Poenisch approaching the finish line and a 65-69 Win at the 2023 Dexter-Ann Arbor Half Marathon Photo courtesy of DXA2 |
The third entrant in the division, Linda Cullison Bloomfield IN, Unattached ran a 31:09 5000 Meter Run at the Masters TF Outdoor Championships last July. She is likely to finish over a minute behind Poenisch and Stirrat, but will happily collect a Bronze Medal for her efforts, nonetheless. It should be: Poenisch-Stirrat-Cullison.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Linda Cullison Carol Poenisch Susan Stirrat
70-74 Two teammates, Jeanette Groesz Redmond OR; Team Red Lizard and Sabra Harvey Houston TX; Team Red Lizard enter as co-favorites. Recent races suggest their current fitness is close. Historically, Harvey has been the faster. The 2017 Masters Athlete of the Year, Harvey still holds many 800M and 1500M American records on the track, including 60-64, 65-69 and 70-74 division records. The lone road record she still holds is the 65-69 record for the 1 Mile at 6:06, set in 2017. Groesz is a very strong runner as well, especially on the turf. She placed first in the 70-74 division at the highly competitive Club Cross Country Championships in San Francisco. She finished 2nd in the division at the 5 km National Championships in Atlanta, clocking 23:50. That is age grade equivalent to a 6:50 Mile.
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| Jeanette Groesz on her way to the 70-74 Crown in the Women's Race at the 2021 USATF Cross Country Championships in Tallahassee FL Photo courtesy of Michael Scott |
The only recent short distance result for Harvey is from a 23:57 'parkrun' 5K in Houston, which would be equivalent to a 6:52. The temperature for that Houston race is listed as 87 degrees so that may be an underestimate of current speed. If not, Groesz's 5K time from February is actually faster. The third member of the Lizards, Suzanne Ray Jacksonville OR; Team Red Lizard, prefers longer races and, recently at least, triathlons. She was able to win the 70--74 division at the National Masters Half Marathon Championships this year ahead of Groesz in 1:51:43 on a (too) warm day in Syracuse. She runs 5K's though, and her 24:06 in the Pear Blossom 5K in early April suggests a mile, at that time, would likely have been under 6:55, perhaps faster. Ray last competed in a triathlon (Olympic Aquabike) at the end of April. I heard a couple of weeks later that one f the Team Lizard crew was injured. If that was Ray, which seems likely as she is a late entry, perhaps she was waiting to see if the injury was far enough along in recovery that she could run a mile without endangering the recovery? If so, her time might be much slower. Given Harvey's history, however, I have to make her the favorite, with Groesz a close 2nd. I find no recent results for the fourth entrant, Hannah Phillips Alexandria VA; Potomac Valley TC. In 2017, Phillips ran a 28:08 5k and a 15:08 3000M on the track. Phillips may finish more than a minute behind Harvey and Groesz. That probably leaves enough room for Ray to take the bronze medal even if injured. The likely order of finish is: Harvey-Groesz-Ray.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Jeanette Groesz Sabra Harvey Suzanne Ray
75-79 As noted in the previous article about potential record breakers, this division belongs to the 2019 Masters Athlete of the Year, Jeannie Rice Concord Township OH; Unattached. Rice just averaged 8:08 per mile, running the 26.2-mile Boston Marathon in 3 hours, 33 minutes, and 15 seconds! She won the 75-79 division, of course! And they were running with a moderate headwind, an important consideration for a point-to-point course like Boston. The 8:08 average is notable because the 1 Mile American Record is 8:36. Rice breaks that by almost a half-minute if she just runs her average marathon pace! Of course, she will run faster. Rice is the holder of the 70-74 American record for the Mile; she won the 70-74 division in 2019 at the Masters National Championship with a 6:24. That record should stand for a long time! Last year, Rice won the 70-74 division at 6:49.
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| Jeannie Rice on her way to a 70-74 Win and the American Record at the 2019 USATF Masters 1 Mile Champiionships at the Michigan Mile of t1he HAP Crim Festival of races in Flint MI Photo courtesy of HAP Crim Festival of Races |
There are at least two indicators that her current fitness is better than it was last year. She ran 20 minutes faster in the Boston Marathon in 2023 compared to 2022. And she ran almost a minute faster in Johnny's Run, an Ohio 5K, run at the end of May in both years. She is not likely to run a 6:24, but a time close to 6:30 is certainly within her reach. I fully expect her to set a mark that will stand for years to come. The other two competitors in the division are there to compete for their team in the 70+ competition. Andrea McCarter Duluth GA; Atlanta TC finished 2nd in the division in Atlanta at the Masters 5 Km national championships. Her 36:59 suggests a mile time around 10:30 should be possible. Carol Patterson Mount Ida AR; Atlanta Track Club finished 3rd in the 75-79 division at the Masters TF National Outdoor Championships, with a time of 10:24. The MileSplit calculator converts that to an 11:14 Mile. Patterson may be able to run faster than that; she ran in four additional flat events from the 400M to the 10,000 meters, not to mention the 2000M Steeplechase. I will make McCarter the favorite for 2nd, but Patterson could certainly surprise! The likely order of finish is: Rice-McCarter-Patterson.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Andrea McCarter Carol Patterson Jeannie Rice
80-84 No entries
85-89 Joyce Hodges-Hite has found a way to travel for championships this year. She won the division at Cross Nationals in Richmond, VA; at the 5 Km Championships in Atlanta, and the 10 Mile Championships in Sacramento. Now she is signed up to travel to Indy for the 1 Mile Championships. No one from this division has ever done so in the past. She will not only win the race when she finishes, she will establish a new American Record. Hodges-Hite is breaking boundaries and inspiring others to imagine what can be achieved.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Joyce Hodges-Hite
AGE GRADING CHAMPIONSHIPS
WOMEN It would be amazing if anyone other than Jeannie Rice wins the Age Grading. She will likely grade in the upper 90% range. When she set the 70-74 record at the Mile in 2019 she graded at 97.23%. Fiona Bayly, Sabra Harvey, Doreen McCoubrie, Perry Shoemaker, Lisa Veneziano are the strongest additional candidates for the age grade podium. In that 2019 Mile at Flint, McCoubrie graded at 94.19 and Bayly at 91.55%. It is not a Mile but this year in Atlanta, the age grading order was Rice-Veneziano-Bayly-McCoubrie. Harvey's 23:57 5Km grades at 93.11% and Harvey is stronger at the mile so she is also a threat for the top prize. Shoemaker's 18:08 grades at 92.92%, but she is not known primarily as a middle-distance runner. It will likely be close. I will venture to suggest an order of Rice-Harvey-Bayly but any of the others could prove that inaccurate. McCoubrie loves the Mile and she excels at it; Veneziano also seems to love a good mile race. Shoemaker is a strong all-around runner, so maybe she can run a great Mile too!?
Likely age grading podium in alphabetical order:
Fiona Bayly Sabra Harvey Jeannie Rice
MEN Jacob Nur is the favorite; his recent American Records and national championships efforts are grading, typically at 94% and above. If he should run a 5:17, which seems plausible, his grade would be 93.72%. If David Westenberg would edge him in the race but have the same time (all times are rounded up to the next whole second), his age grade would be 92.05%. If Christian Cushing-Murray gets his 4:48 and the AR, his age grade would be 93.15%. If Madsen gets the 50-54 AR by a second in 4:39, his age grade would be 92.33%. If Rick Lee can match his age grade from last year at Rochester, it would be amazing, just 2 weeks after a 55-mile race. But, if so, he would age grade at 92.71%. If Dan King merely matched his 5:12 at the Portland Track Festival, he would grade at 92.72%. King was disappointed with that effort and recently report1ed that his training was going well. I will take that as a sign we are likely to see a good performance from King and that his age grade will move up accordingly. The 'crystal ball' is dim but I will go with Nur--King--Cushing-murray.
Likely podium in alphabetical order:
Christian Cushing-murray Dan King Jacob Nur
TEAM CHAMPIONSHIPS
Up to 5 athletes declared per team. Fastest three times are added for a cumulative team time. Lower times rule! Team predictions, especially, should be taken with several g0rains of salt; there are so many athletes at different stages of commitment, injury, health, etc. I treat the numbers without specifying the broad band of uncertainty around each one. Otherwise I would be making qualifying remarks every few words. Any team with just 3 entered always run the risk that one may run into difficulty getting to the event or may be unable to finish. The 'fortunes of war' are not considered below.
MEN
40+ The Indiana Elite AC look to dominate this division as the home team. There is no reason to bet against them. If Guyer, Burns and Lindsay run as expected, they can run under 13:40 as a team. No other team should crack 15:00. GVH looks to have the edge for 2nd but not by a huge margin. If Herter can get close to 4:30 again and Hernandez close to 4:45, then Passamonte, dropping down from 65-69 only has to run a 6:05 for GVH's total to be around 15:20. Cal Coast, Greater Philadelphia, and the 'B' squad of Indiana Elite look to be all between 15:40 and 15:48 depending on the individual performances on the day. Indiana will run with hometown pride on the line. Cal Coast runs with a lot of historic success, both as a team and as individuals. Greater Philly needs points to move up in the Club Grand Prix. After a slow start, they could still pull themselves up onto the GP podium with strong scores in the last three events of the GP season. With Cushing-murray high 4:40's and a lot of guesswork on two guys who have not run a lot lately but were good a while back. I am guessing Sullivan for something like 5:15 and Bryson for something like 5:40. That puts Cal Coast with a cumulative time around 15:45 or so. But, with a lot of imponderables, it looks tight. Olson should lead the way for Indiana B. Can he come home a few seconds ahead of Cushing-murray, maybe a 4:45 or so? If Awe can hit 5:20 and Daugherty 5:35 or better, they might just total 15:40 and nip Cal Coast. Greater Philly has Cutrona coming back from injury, maybe running 5:15; Di Leva maybe a 5:02, and Conheady, dropping down from 65-69 with a 5:30. If so, that looks like a 15:47 and they wind up losing to Indiana B and Cal Coast. The pressure is on! I can almost hear the talk among the Cal Coast and Philly guys...'Can you imagine? A 'B' team picked to beat us?! Time to show 'em!'
Best guess: Indiana Elite AC GVH Indiana Elite AC 'B'
50+ The Boulder Road Runners, with Straka a bit under 5, Borthwick a bit over, and Adam Feerst dropping down from 60+ to give them a credible third scorer, are the favorites. They should be able to break 16 minutes as a team. Feerst had a tough bike crash a couple of days ago let us hope the residual soreness does not slow him down. GVH should have the edge for 2nd. With Nier able to run around 5:05 or under; Flanders able to contribute a 5:20 and Mertens a 5:40, they should clock in right around 16:05 or so. The Indiana Elite AC and Shore AC+ should battle for 3rd. Mylin, dropping down from 60+ might lead the way for Indiana but they should have a pretty tight pack with Mylin a bit under 5:30 and Gonzalez and Hector maybe right around 5:30 for a cumulative time just under 16:30. Conston should lead the way for Shore AC around 5:10 to 5:15, with Rinaldi giving them a 5:35 or so, and Di Leva a 5:50. If so, they score around 16:35 or so. The numbers point to a finishing order of Boulder-GVH-Indiana.
Best guess: Boulder Road Runners GVH Indiana Elite
60+ Shore AC 'A' looks good subject uncertainties surrounding Lee's recovery form a 55 Mile race 2 weekends ago and Zamek's PHT and his intended tempo run of around 5:20. If Lee can run between 5:05 and 5:10 and Zamek runs around 5:20, then a 6:00 effort from Weisinger gives them somewhere between 16:25 and 16:30 and that should be enough for the team win. But there is not a lot of room for error. If Zamek's tendon is not up to it, then all bets should be off. The 'new' CHT Elite team should run close to that. Running in the teens as Playmakers Elite, this group has stayed away from national championships for a few years. Bussard may be able to give them a 5:15. If Stuber can deliver something like a 5:22, and Lambrecht a 5:55, the team score is 16:42, just 12 seconds higher than the projection for Shore. GVH should be in contention as well. Mora should give them something like a 5:05. If Riccardi chips in a 5:40 and Rybinski a 6:07, they are at 16:52 and probably good for third. Of course this all assumes that Boulder follows through on their plan to drop Feerst down to the 50+ squad. Unless I am wrong about Cottrell, we should expect him to run around 6:36. If Sayre can clock 5:20 and Spale 5:40, they are still at 17:36 and out of contention for the podium. They are still likely to pick up 70 GP points however. Shore has designated Weisinger to run on the 'A' team; they must expect the B team to total 18:00 or higher.
