August 22, 2024. This Saturday, August 24, 2024 sees top Masters Long Distance Runners heading to Flint MI. From 2014 to 2019 the USATF Masters 1 Mile Championships were held in Flint the Friday night before the Crim Fitness Foundation's signature event, the Crim 10 Mile Run. This will be the 47th running of this historic race. In its early years, iconic Open runners like Herb Lindsay, Greg Meyer, and Bill Rodgers vied for prizes during the transition from amateur to professional road racing. Two years before winning her 1984 Olympic Marathon title, Joan Benoit took the women's title at the Crim. We had a break to cheer on Team USA at the outstanding Olympic Games of 2024 in Paris. Now it is time to crown Masters National Champions once again. With a forecast of temperatures in the low 60’s, with winds at 5-6 mph and humidity moderate, conditions look good.
The course can be challenging but plenty of fast times have been run on the course. Based on examining a Strava post, it appears that the first mile sees a rise of 90 feet. Right after the halfway point, runners face a 100-foot climb. But the back end of the course seems to be a gradual rolling downhill. That is where runners can recoup much of their lost time on the uphill portions. The weather can also make a difference. The early forecast is favorable. With a start time of 7am, the temperatures are forecast to stay in the low to mid-60's. Winds are at 5 mph (gusting to 9). Humidity, 86% at the start falling into the upper 70% range, is not ideal. But the dewpoint is expected to stay below 60 throughout the race. Runners who are sensitive to humidity will feel it. But many in the Midwest and East, not to mention the Southeast, have been training in dewpoints well above 60 and will find the humidity manageable. We will look at the race for the overall Championships first, followed by age Division, Age Grading, and Teams.
OVERALL CHAMPIONSHIPS
WOMEN Five women are prime contenders for the top spot overall: Hidi Gaff Three Rivers Racing, was the top Masters finisher at the Glass City Half Marathon in April at 1:24:22 and clocked 1:39:11 to take the Masters title at the Amway Riverbank Run 25K in May. The RBR 25K run time is age grade equivalent to a 1:03:05 ten-mile effort. She has experience at national championships; in 2023 she finished 6th overall at the Masters 5 Km Championships and 3rd overall at the Masters 1 Mile Championships. Carla Snell Ann Arbor Track Club finished 4th overall and first Masters athlete last year at the Crim 10 Miler in 1:04:19. Her more recent efforts are not quite as strong. Her 1:29:51 at the UA NYC Half marathon in March was followed by an outing at the Glass City Half marathon that was a few minutes slower. That suggests an injury or other problem. If she has fully recovered, she is a definite threat for the podium. Erika Suhy ran 1:04:22 at the EQT Pitsburgh 10 Miler last November. Suhy improved on that this spring. Suhy earned a top 10 Masters finish at the nationally prominent Credit Union Cherry Blossom 10 Mile this spring with a 1:03:56. Jacqueline Cooke Impala Racing finished 5th in 1:03:25 at the 2023 Masters 10 Mile Championships in Sacramento. This year she clocked a 1:25:54 at the Urban Cow Half Marathon and improved to a 1:23:57 at the San Francisco HM (2nd half) in late July. The latter is equivalent to a 1:03:51. Fiona Bayly Urban Athletics took 3rd overall at the 2023 Masters Half Marathon Championships and finished 4th overall at the 2023 Masters 10 Mile Championships. This year she has clocked 1:24:32 at the UA New York City Half Marathon in March, equivalent to a 1:03:32 10 Miler. In July, she ran 30:48 at the NYRR Team 5 Mile run, which equates to a 1:03:46 10 Miler. A year earlier she had run 30:05 to set the 55-59 American record. It should also be mentioned that Bayly finished 19 seconds ahead of Cooke at that 2023 Ten Mile Championship. It is difficult to pick a likely order of finish when the top athletes are as closely matched as these four are. But that is my task. I will put Gaff at the head of this class, in part because she took on the 25K RBR which has hills and she did well. I will go with Bayly. It does not appear she is slowing down much, and she was ahead of Cooke a year ago. Suhy ran well at the Cherry Blossom 10 Miler but it has no hills to speak of. I will go with suggesting a likely finishing order of Gaff-Bayly-Suhy with Cooke and Snell very capable of breaking onto the podium. Notes: In these previews, if a team affiliation is not listed the first time for an athlete, they are competing as unaffiliated. Time equivalencies across distances are done via the age grading system. If I know a course is unusually challenging or easy/downhill, I take that into consideration. Any equivalencies are in terms of an average course of ten miles length; I am not specifically taking into consideration whether the Crim course is harder or easier than average.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Fiona Bayly Hidi Gaff Erika Suhy
MEN Joel Conn, a newly minted Masters runner, has
top credentials, among the Men. At the Gate River Run, Conn finished among the
top thirty men Overall this past March, right behind the Elite Open runners. Conn, 39 at the time, enjoyed a margin of almost 4 minutes on the Masters winner, clocking 48:56. Conn also knows the Crim
course, where he finished 6th Overall in each of the last two years. His 2023 time was 51:45. His chief rival is David Angell Roanoke Valley Elite, who finished 1st Overall at
the Masters 5 Km Championships in Atlanta this past February and 3rd
Overall at the Masters 10 Km Championship in April. His 33:15 at that 10 Km Championship equates to a 54:56 10-miler. In November, Angell ran 1:12:27 at the Richmond Half Marathon, equivalent to a 54:45 10-Miler. John Fernandez Lake Erie Lightning, Matt
Yacoub Cal Coast, and John Yoder Boulder Underground will also be in the hunt. Fernandez finished
third Overall at the Masters 5 Km Championships in February. At longer distances, Fernandez clocked 1:18:49 at the Haunted Forest HM last October and 1:19:09 at the Ohio Health Capital City HM this April. Yacoub finished in 1:15:55 as
2nd Masters athlete at the Akron Half Marathon in September. A month later, Yacoub demonstrated consistency in running a second faster at the Detroit Free Press Half Marathon. Yoder was the
top Masters finisher, 2nd Overall, at the Newport Oregon Half Marathon this June in 1:16:18. In Philadelphia last September, Yoder's time was even more impressive, running 1:14:41 at the Philadelphia Distance Run Half Marathon.
If all goes according to form, Conn will fly over the course, crossing the finish line in first with minutes to spare. But things do not always go to form, as Jakob Ingebrigtsen would, no doubt, acknowledge. We are flesh and blood, not robots. Angell and the others will toe the line with high hopes and determination; they will let the day unfold as it will. Angell is the favorite for 2nd place. His half marathon times have been consistently faster than the others. He has experience at national championships over these longer distances. He was on the Overall podium all four times he competed at the 15K Masters Championships from 2016 to 2019. After that it appears that Yacoub and Yoder will battle for the third spot. Yoder was faster at the Half Marathon last year. But Yacoub has been faster this spring. I would give the edge to Yacoub, as well, because the DFP HM has two significant uphill climbs. The Newport OR HM appears to be net downhill. That leaves me with a likely finishing order of Conn-Angell-Yacoub. But Fernandez and Yoder will give it their all, and either, or both, could wind up on the podium if fortune smiles on them.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
David Angell Joel Conn Matt Yacoub
AGE DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIPS
MEN 40-44 Joel Conn, a sub-50 performer over ten miles, carries his Overall favorite role into this age division. John Yoder is an overall contender so is favored for 2nd in 40-44. Roger Davenport who ran 1:25:54 at the Indianapolis Monumental Marathon last November is picked for the bronze medal.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Joel Conn Roger Davenport John Yoder
M45 David Angell, picked for the podium overall has the target on his back for this division. He is capable of running under 55 minutes in a ten miler. Three athletes who ran in Dave's 10 Miler outside of Toledo this January will try their best to chase him down. David Padgett, who finished 5th overall and 1st Masters in 58:56 has the best shot. Kevin Egan was 57 seconds behind Padgett in 6th. In 2023, Timothy Carney finished 12th in 1:05:02. Padgett's 1:17:22 in the Dexter-Ann Arbor Half Marathon in June reinforces the impression that he is likely to prevail over Egan and Carney. Carney ran 1:21:33 at the Rock CF Rivers HM this spring. Egan does not have an equivalent HM this spring but ran the Glass City Marathon in April in 2:55:30, three minutes faster than Carney's Boston Marathon effort this spring. These data suggest a likely finishing order of Angell-Padgett-Egan. Although Carney is not far behind Egan based on recent efforts.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
David Angell Kevin Egan David Padgett
M50 Matt Yacoub, picked for the overall podium, carries the favorite's mantel to this division. His ten mile time should be well under an hour. His chief rival should be Frederick Dolan Atlanta TC who finished 4th in this division at the Masters 10 Km championships in April, an effort equivalent to a 58:30. When equating from a shorter distance it is always good to have a time from a longer race to provide perspective. Dolan ran 2:55:59 at the Bayshore Marathon this spring. That equates to a 1:03:23 ten-mile effort. Taken together these two races suggest something under an hour is likely for Dolan. Jason Newport and Todd Germana appear to be closely matched. Newport clocked 1:25:42 at the Parkersburg News Sentinel HM last August, which equates to a 1:04:42. He ran better than that this spring at the Little Miami 10 Mile run, clocking 1:03:41. Germana ran 1:04:49 at Dave's 10 Miler in January, but looked more impressive with his 1:23:55 half marathon at the Rock CF Rivers run in March. That equates to a 1:03:22. It appears to be a toss-up between the two. I will give the edge to Germana for the faster HM time and for the progression from January to March. But I would not be surprised whichever way that matchup turns out. That gives me a likely order of Yacoub-Dolan-Germana, although if Dolan's Bayshore time was off his best, it could be closer between Yacoub and Dolan.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Frederick Dolan Todd Germana Matt Yacoub
M55 John Fernandez, mentioned as an overall contender, comes into this division as the favorite. He appears to be a solid bet for a sub-hour 10 Miler. His closest rivals should be Michael Mallon Boulder Road Runners, Scott Siriano Boulder Road Runners, and Brad Wotring. Mallon ran 1:19:35 at the Bayshore Half Marathon in May, equivalent to a 1:00:03 ten miler. This July he ran 42:25 at the Quad City Bix 7 Miler in Iowa. That equates to a 1:01:52, but the Bix is known to be a challenging race. So a time close to an hour seems within Mallon's reach. Siriano's recent equivalence comes from the Masters 10K championships in Dedham MA, where he ran 37:40, finishing 6th in this division. That equates to a 1:02:21 ten miler. I go back to April 2023 to find a race as long or longer than ten miles. Siriano ran 1:26:30 to finish 4th in the division at the Masters HM Championships in Syracuse. That would equate to a slower ten-mile time but that was an unseasonably hot day. Almost everyone dialed it back, running a minute or two slower than their best. That leaves Siriano close to Mallon although I still give the edge to Mallon. Wotring ran 1:00:51 at Dave's 10 Miler in 2021. Aging via Age Grading suggests that equates to a 1:02:30 ten miler in 2024. Scott Ursum CHT Elite could be in the mix as well. His 1:40:49 over 25K at the Amway Riverbank Run in May equates to a 1:03:32. Seven years ago, Rob Arsenault Cal Coast was on the 50-54 division podium at the 15K Masters National Championships in Tulsa. Since relocating to Iowa, Arsenault has restricted his national championship activity to cross country. He has run on the roads in the Quad Cities, though. Arsenault clocked 44:04 over 7 Miles at the Quad City Running Festival (not the QC Bix) in 2022. Taking both distance and age into account, that equates to a 1:05:26. The aging may be trumped by fitness though. This past November, Arsenault clocked 30:10 in a Turkey Trot 5 Miler, which would equate to a 1:03:27. My guess is that Arsenault can run under 1:05. If he has someone to race against, he is a competitor. Dale Flanders Genesee Valley Harriers appears to be competitive with Arsenault. Flanders competes often at national Masters Championships but typically at distances 10K and under. An exception is the 2023 12 Km Masters national championships in Highlands NJ. Last September Flanders finished 7th in this division at 47:07, equivalent to a 1:04:17 ten miler. In the end, I go with a likely order of Fernandez-Mallon-Siriano but this division is very competitive and one or more of the others cold break up that trio.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
John Fernandez Michael Mallon Scott Siriano
M60 Henry Notaro Shore AC and Steve Schmidt Ann Arbor TC lead their respective teams into one of the most competitive team divisions and are also co-favorites for this division championship. Schmidt gained fame as one of the earliest two athletes to achieve the Amby Burfoot-coined 6DS3 club, completing six decades of sub-3-hour marathons. He has branched out to different distances more recently. His 36:52 10K at the 2023 Masters Championships translates, along with an age adjustment, to 1:01:41 for a ten-mile effort. His 1:21:12 silver medal effort at the 2023 Masters Half Marathon championships in Syracuse equates, also with a year of aging, to a 1:01:51. But that is misleading because that was an unseasonably warm day where runners tended to dial back their efforts. Schmidt has come in ahead of Notaro on the turf but that does not necessarily translate to the roads. Notaro ran 5 minutes faster than Schmidt at Boston this year with his 3:05:34. But Boston is so variable for marathoners from year to year it is easy to make too much of that result. After all, Schmidt ran 2:52:52 at London in 2022 when Notaro ran 2:54:46. On the other hand, Notaro also ran 44:15 to take the silver medal at the 12 Km Championships in NJ last September. That equates to a 1:00:23 ten-mile effort. A third runner could be added to the mix, Jeff Bennett. He ran 1:04:33 at the Frostbite 10 Mile run in Springfield IL but then came back in January of '24 to run a nifty 1:20:35 at the Naples HM, equivalent to a 1:00:47 Ten Miler. Those three should battle for the three podium spots. The runner who shows up with their best fitness will likely prevail. An argument could be made for each of the three. If we go mostly by recent performances, the likely order would be Bennett-Notaro-Schmidt.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Jeff Bennett Henry Notaro Steve Schmidt
M65 Rick Becker Atlanta TC is a three-time Masters Harrier of the Year. He has not run many road championships recently, but he won this division at the 5 Km Masters XC Championships in Boca Raton last fall and at Club Cross in Tallahassee last December. His most recent appearance at a road championship was the 12 Km at Highlands in 2022. He won his division with a 46:34 effort. That equates to a 1:04:55 effort on a ten miler. His closest challenger seems likely to be his Atlanta teammate, Ken Youngers. Youngers is more up and down now depending on a variety of circumstances but when he is 'on', he is tough. As recently as 2022, Youngers clocked 37:48 to take the 65-69 championship at the Masters 10K Championships in Dedham that year. This year he ran 40:34, finishing 2nd at Dedham. The former, with an age adjustment, equates to a 1:03:57. The latter equates to a 1:07:18 ten miler. Two months later, Youngers celebrated Independence Day by running 43 seconds faster at the AJC Peachtree Road Race, usually a slower race due to the warm conditions. That equates to 1:06:07 for a ten miler. Two others can approach that level of performance. At the World Masters Athletics Championships, they include a Half Marathon run outside the stadium, called a Non Stadia event. In 2023, Timothy Conheady ran 1:29:15 in that event. That equates via distance and age to a 1:07:57. His most recent road race, however, is a 27:04 four-miler on the 4th of July that equates to a 1:10:51. Later in July, John Blaser countered with a 49:57 at the Quad City Bix 7, equating to a 1:08:35. Blaser's 4th place finish in the division at the Masters 10 Km Championships, this April, in 42:04, equates to a 1:09:46. Blaser's more recent efforts suggest he should be given the edge over Conheady. But that will be one of many races within the race to keep an eye on. At this point, the most likely order of finish appears to be Becker-Youngers-Blaser.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Rick Becker John Blaser Ken Youngers
M70 Joe Reda might be considered the favorite. He claimed the M65 title at the 10 Km Masters Championships this year in 43:17, equivalent to a 1:11:51. Reda, who winters in Arizona, ran 1:31:06 at the Mesa Half Marathon in February. That equivalence to a 1:08:38 ten miler is perhaps a little suspect. Mesa is known as a 'smooth downhill' course with 160' of elevation drop. Still, the 1:11:51 gets Reda to the top of the list. Doug Chesnut Boulder Road Runners is, in a sense, the defending champion, although on a different course. Chesnut won the M70 10 Mile Championship in Sacramento last year with a 1:10:35. This April, Chesnut finished a half minute behind Reda, finishing 4th in that 10 Km national championship. Should Chesnut or Rea be considered the favorite. Reda has the head-to-head edge but over a shorter distance. Reno Stirrat, after a couple of up and down years with injuries/rehab appears to b=e running well again. His 43:56 at the 10 Km Championships earns him an equivalent ten-mile time of 1:12:56. But his longer runs do not quite back up a time that strong. His 1:43:04 at the E Murray Todd Half Marathon in March equates to a 1:17:39 ten-mile run. But his 1:15:13 at the Super Saturday Ten Miler shows that he can run faster than that on a good day. Denny Kurtis Ann Arbo r TC should also be in the mix. Kurtis finished 6th at the 5 km Masters Champs in 21:33. Last October he ran 1:37:15 at the Detroit Free Press Half Marathon, equivalent to a 1:13:17 ten-mile run Richard Boyle finished 13 seconds behind Chesnut at the 10 Km Championships. I cannot find any recent races beyond 10 Km for Boyle, so that raises some doubts about performance at a 10 mile race. If we would go by 10K performance, Doug Bell would be in the mix. But races well beyond 10 Km are not his cup of tea, nor his cup of coffee. Bell ran in the 10 Mile Championships last year but finished in 1:16:53, earning valuable points for his team. I will go with a likely finishing order of Chesnut-Reda-Kurtis. Stirrat has had a good couple oof months of training. He could break onto the podium.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Doug Chesnut Denny Kurtis Joe Reda
M75 Ever since we learned that there would be overlap between the WMA Outdoor Championships and this Championship, I worried that some fields might be thin. This will be the first time since I entered the 75-79 divisi0on in 2020 that we have not had a complete field. There are just two entrants, both from the Ann Arbor Track Club, Terry McCluskey and me, your author, Paul Carlin. We will go 1-2. In the ten years or so we have encountered each other in races, sometimes as teammates, sometimes not, McCluskey has beaten me almost every time. He beat me every time at every distance from 2013 through 2019. In the last couple of years I have come in ahead of McCluskey twice. The first time was when McCluskey choose to run with his good buddy, Doug Goodhue, for the fun of it at 2022 Club Cross in San Francisco. The other time was at the 12 Km Championships when some nagging injury acted up during the race. Most likely, McCluskey is in good fitness and should win. I hope to be competitive. My 1:00:14 at the 12 Km Championships last year suggest a 1:22:26 ten mile run is possible. That is close to the 1:22:34 I ran at the 2023 Masters Ten Mile Championships in Sacramento. On the other hand, the fastest 10K I have in the last year or so, is the 49:33 I ran last August at the Beach to Beacon 10K. In that same month, McCluskey turned in a 47:52 10K. In June he ran a 51:15 10K. The fastest I have run this year is 51:33 at the 10 Km Championships. If we go strictly by the numbers, I should be favored in a Ten Mile race. McCluskey has no recent strong races at over 10 Km, although he has plenty in his history, including marathons. It will be interesting to see how the race actually unfolds. Carlin-McCluskey is the pick for likely finishing order but no one would be surprised if it went the other way.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Paul Carlin Terry McCluskey
80-84 Masters Hall of Famer, Doug Goodhue Ann Arbor Track Club is the favorite. He has won so many national titles over the years that none of us can keep track of them. The last couple of years were hampered by a gimpy knee. But knee surgery in 2022 allowed him to start his comeback in 2023 with an M80 win at the 5 km National Championships with a 26:27. In August he won his division at the Crim 10 Miler with a 1:28:00. He has won here many times. he definitely knows the course. At the Detroit Free Press Marathon, he won his Half Marathon division with a 1:57:41, which equates to a 1:28:25 Ten Mile effort. His hamstring acted up during Club Cross in Tallahassee. But if his hamstring holds up on Saturday he should come in again under 1:30. No one should imagine it will be a cakewalk for Goodhue. He has two tough competitors. Don Owens won the M75 division in 2022 at the Crim Ten Miler with a 1:29:44. He reinforced that with a 1:59:00 at the Naples Half Marathon, age grade equivalent to a 1:29:28 ten miler. Harold Rosen is relatively new to Masters National Championships. He entered with a bang in Atlanta where he won the M80 5 Km Championship in 26:53. Two months later he took the division crown at the Credit Union Cherry Blossom Ten Mile Run in 1:30:19. The likely ten-mile times for these three athletes all within a couple of minutes of one another. That is not a decisive difference. One could imagine any one of the three might win, depending on the fitness they are able to bring to the starting line and how the day unfolds. Nonetheless, going strictly by the numbers, the most likely order of finish is Goodhue-Owens-Rosen. This is another one of the fascinating races within the race to watch!
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Doug Goodhue Don Owens Harold Rosen
WOMEN W40 Hidi Gaff and Erika Suhy are favored to go 1-3 overall. That means they are favored for 1-2 in this division. Melissa Kessler ran 3:03:35 at the Chicago Marathon last October. That is sufficiently ahead of Tracy Matuszko's 1:47:56 at the Bayshore Half Marathon to make Kessler a safe bet for the bronze medal. The most likely order of finish is: Gaff-Suhy-Kessler.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Hidi Gaff Melissa Kessler Erika Suhy
W45 Jacqueline Cooke and Carla Snell are contenders for the overall title. Snell appears to have been slightly faster last year at this time but her efforts earlier this spring were not consistent. Based on that, I will go with Cooke over Snell, recognizing that it could go either way. Christina Rooney looks to have the bronze medal all but locked up. Last November she ran 1:10:13 at the Wellington 10 Miler in Florida. In December, she ran the Jacksonville Bank Marathon in 3:11:21, equivalent to a 1:10:24 ten miler. No one else seems likely to break 1:15. That leaves the likely order of finish as Cooke-Snell-Rooney.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Jacqueline Cooke Christina Rooney Carla Snell
W50 Linda Spooner Central Mass Striders and Amy Wing Run GR are the top two competitors in this division. They are closely matched. Spooner won the W45 division at the Masters 10 Km Championships in 39:50 which equates to a 1:05:36 10-mile run. This past June she ran 1:07:21 at the Baltimore Ten Miler. Last August. Spooner ran a 1:06:44 at the Yankee Homecoming 10 Mile Run. Wing's credentials are just as impressive. She finished as 6th Masters last year in 1:09:04. More impressively, Wing ran 25K at the Amway River Bank Run in 1:44:27 this May. That equates to a 1:06:11, putting her at or inside of all of Spooner's recent races over 10K. The previous September she almost matched that with a 1:06:33 over the ten-mile course at the LMCU Bridge Run. Wing reinforces those results with the 1:27;38 Half Marathon she ran in April, the Rivertown Race in Grand Rapids MI. That equates to a 1:06:34. That consistency of performance over 2023 and 2024 gives Wing the edge over Spooner. Jennifer Malavolta and Alexandra Marzulla Shore AC will battle for the bronze medal. I am aware of three times Malavolta has contested a national championship. Each time she has been on the division podium and once on the overall podium. She ran 59:59 to win the bronze medal overall and the gold medal in the W45 division at the 2018 Masters National Championships in Tulsa. A half year later she won the W45 title at the Masters 8K National Championships with a 31:58 at Virginia Beach. Swing forward three years and Malavolta takes the W50 bronze medal at the 2022 Masters Half Marathon Championships with a 1:32:08. An age grade equivalence along with an aging factor to account for two years, suggests an equivalent 10 Mile time in 2024 of 1:11:41. That is surprisingly close to the equivalent time of Marzulla's from her 2023 Masters 12 Km third place effort of 52:33, which equates to a 1:11:31. Older results of Marzulla's at distances over ten Km, such as her 1:37:34 at the Superhero Half Marathon in May 2022, suggest slower ten-mile times closer to 1:16. Unfortunately I can find no trace of any results from Malavolta within the last two years. That gives Marzulla the edge. But, given her history, it seems unlikely that Malavolta would enter a national championship without having the fitness to contend for a division podium. Still, I will opt for a likely finishing order of Wing-Spooner-Marzulla and will let Malavolta prove the prediction wrong if she can.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Alexandra Marzulla Linda Spooner Amy Wing
W55 You would think that an athlete from the 55-59 division who is considered likely for the Overall podium would be an overwhelming favorite in her age division. But not so. In addition to Fiona Bayly, the division also includes Lisa Veneziano Pursuit of Excellence TC. Both are outstanding runners and both American record holders, Bayly at the 8K for W55 in 30:03, Veneziano at the 12K for W55 at 46:13. As noted in the overall discussion, Bayly has a 15K result from last December and a 5 Mile run from this June that suggests Bayly could well break 1:04 in a 10 Mile run. Veneziano is a little off that. She ran 1:04:28 at the Crim 10 Miler last year. This June, Veneziano ran a 1:26:56 Half Marathon at the Volkslaufe in Frankenmuth MI. A few weeks later clocked a 1:00:16 15K at the Bastille Day race in her hometown. The former was equivalent to a 1:05:46 ten miler, and the latter to a 1:04:48. There is not much difference between their records. Both are fierce competitors. It looks as if Bayly has the edge but you cannot count Veneziano out; she has the home course advantage. On the other hand, Bayly knows the course. She took first Masters overall in 2019 when she was 52. Her time was 1:02:57. That same year Veneziano was 5th Masters finisher in 1:05:05. I give the edge to Bayly but it would not be out of the question for Veneziano to take the division win. Maureen Massell is the third entrant. Her 47:20 time at the Masters 10 Km Championships and her 1:44:24 clocking at the E Murray Todd Half Marathon both suggest a ten mile time a bit under 1:20. That should give her the W55 bronze medal. The likely finishing order is Bayly-Veneziano-Massell.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Fiona Bayly Maureen Massell Lisa Veneziano
W60 Suzanne La Burt Shore AC, winner of the 2023 W60 Masters National Grand Prix, is a clear favorite. Three of her outings this year suggest she can run a 10 Mile in under 1:08. These include her W60 winning time of 40:58 at the Masters 10 Km National Championships; her 1:07:30 at the Blue Cross Broad Street Run in early May, and her 1:29:35 at the RBC Brooklyn Half marathon in mid-May. That should be good enough for the win! Kris Huff Atlanta TC looks to have an edge over the rest of the field. Her 1:36:42 at the Asheville HM equates to a 1:1:13:20 ten-mile effort. That might be a little generous as the Asheville course has been point to point with a 3meter per kilometer drop overall. On the other hand, Huff also clocked a 3:19:52 Boston Marathon, equating to a 1:12:40 ten miler. Her 1:37:45 at the Cleveland Celebration HM, equivalent to a 1:14:08, adds to the notion that a sub-1:15 ten miler is within Huff's reach. Deborah Capko Shore AC, Jodie Jensen Genesee Valley Harriers, and Karen Kemmis will likely be vying for the bronze medal. Capko ran 55:45 to finish 6th in this division at the 12 Km Masters Championships last September, equating to a 1:16:01 ten miler. But she also clocked 1:46:41 at the Myrtle Beach Half marathon in March. That equates to a 1:20:55. Jensen finished 5th in this division at the 10 Km Masters Championship off a 46:00 time. That equates to a 1:16:03 ten miler. But as we view 10 km projections to ten-mile races with some trepidation, it makes sense to consider a longer race. In 2022, Jensen ran in the Masters Half Marathon Championships in Syracuse over a hilly course. Her 1:45:35 equates to a 1:20:07 ten miler. Kemmis runs the Crim almost every year. Her time this past year was 1:20:26; it was sufficient to win the W60 division. It seems that both Capko and Jensen could run a ten miler anywhere between 1:16 and 1:20. The faster times are projected off of shorter races, the higher times off of longer races. Kemmis has the advantage that she ran 1:20:26 on the Crim course last year. Still, it appears everything would have to break Kemmis's way for her to manage a podium finish. Let us go with Capko. Her equivalent times are projections off of a 12 Km anda Half Marathon compared to Jensen's coming from a 10K and a Half Marathon. That gives us a suggested likely order of La Burt-Huff-Capko. But it would not be that surprising for either Jensen or Kemmis to race their way onto the podium.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Deborah Capko Kris Huff Suzanne La Burt
W65 Despite the presence of Patrice Combs Atlanta TC and Stella Gibbs Impala Racing, Nora Cary Shore AC is the favorite. The holder of the W65 AR for 12K has been in fine form this year. Last September she won this division at the Masters 12 Km Championships in 52:32. In March of this year she clocked 1:12:27 at the Garden State 10 Miler. In April she took the W65 crown at the Masters 10 Km Championships in late April, finishing eight seconds ahead of Gibbs. All of those point to a ten-mile effort in the 1:11 to 1:12 range. Clearly eight seconds is not a huge gap. But the gap may grow over longer distances. Gibbs finished 3rd in the W60 division last year at the 10 Mile Championships in Sacramento in 1:15:09. There is no reason to think the Garden State course is faster than the Sactown course. It is, of course, just one race, but is consistent with the 10 Km story. Combs did not run at the Masters 10 Km Championships last year. She did run the AJC Peachtree 10K in 44:14. I am guessing that the 2:28:36 Half Marathon in Savannah was a case of running with a slower friend or relative for fun, or perhaps being a pacer? If I go back to 2022, I find a 'Female Grandmaster' effort of 1:42:19 at the Invesco QQQ Thanksgiving Day Half marathon, consistent with a 1:17:29 10 Miler. Knowing Atlanta that is probably a more challenging course than either the Sactown or Garden State ten milers. It looks like a dandy race between three very strong runners. It does seem that, on paper, it lines up as Cary-Gibbs-Combs. It does not seem that anyone else is likely to break 1:20.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Nora Cary Patrice Combs Stella Gibbs
W70 Kari Chandler who won the Masters 5 Km Championships this year in Atlanta in 23:03. That might be enough by itself to make her the favorite. Add to that her 1:17:42 at the LMCU Bridge Ten Miler and her 1:45:48 at the Dexter-Ann Arbor Half Marathon and one can see that she is a force to be reckoned with. Victoria Crisp and Sharon Moore GVH appear to be more closely matched. I do not find many recent races for Moore but I did find the YMCA of Greater Rochester 5 Mile Run. Moore clocked 43:31 for that race, equivalent to a 1:30:35 ten miler. Crisp won this division at the Masters 5 Km XC Championships in Boca Raton last October in 26:07. More relevant for this championship is her 1:59:45 at the Fort Lauderdale Half Marathon this February. Two years earlier Crisp ran 1:44:48 in the same race, so the 1:59:45 may have been one of her slower efforts at the distance. The 1:59:45 is equivalent to a 1:30:33. Either way, one has more confidence in a ten-mile equivalence from a half marathon than from a 5-miler. For that reason, I consider the most likely order of finish to be Chandler-Crisp-Moore.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order
Kari Chandler Victoria Crisp Sharon Moore
W75 The only representative of this division is Jo Anne Rowland Impala Racing. But she will not be lonely. She will happily join in with her Impala teammates to have a good race and a fun time! She won the 2023 W75 Masters ten mile championship at Sacramento in 1:26:50. In September she turned in a 1:56:34 half marathon at the Urban Cow, equivalent to a 1:28:00. This April she reinforced that with a 1:28:11 at Sactown.
Podium Favorite
Jo Anne Rowland
OVERALL AGE GRADING CHAMPIONSHIPS
Note: Scores at or above 80% are considered National Class times; at or above 90% are considered World Class by the USATF Masters LDR Committee.
WOMEN The main contenders include Bayly 57, Cary 69, Chandler 71, Gibbs 65, La Burt 61and Veneziano 59. Cary, Gibbs and La Burt finished 2nd, 3rd and 5th in age grading at the Masters 10 Km Championships, with scores, based on net time, of 99.81 for Cary, 94.12 for Gibbs, and 92.55 for La Burt.
At longer distances, we have the following: Bayly was on the Age Grading podium at last year's Ten Mile Championships. Her 1:03:06 at age 55 earned a 93.36%. Cary's 1:12:27 at the certified and record eligible GS 10 Miler grades at 98.23%. Chandler's 1:17:13 10 Miler at the LMCU Bridge Run grades at 93.55%. Although, to be fair, her 1:43:13 Half Marathon shortly after her 71st birthday graded at 93.98%. Gibbs's 1:15:09 at the 10 Mile Championships last year merits an 88.16%. La Burt's 1:07:30 at the Broad Street Run earned a 92.99%. Veneziano's 1:00:16 15K effort merits a 95.61%. Bayly's 59:06 at the Ted Corbitt 15K last fall represents a 93.87%.
Based on the above, it seems likely that Cary and Veneziano will take the top two age-grading spots, in that order and that it will be very close among the rest, with Bayly or Chandler next most likely to stand on the podium. But all six of these athletes are extraordinary!
MEN The main contenders include Angell, Conn, Becker, Fernandez, Notaro, Schmidt, and Youngers. Angell's net time of 33:00 at the Masters 10 Km Championships merited an 87.83%. His 1:12:27 Half Marathon at Richmond last fall earned an 87.46%. Conn's 51:45 at Crim last year merited an 86.78%. Becker's 46:36 at the 12 Km Championships in 2022 put him atop the age grading podium at 90.48%. Notaro ran in the same championship, earning an 88.88% from his 44:20. To be fair, Notaro ran that race again in 2023, clocking 44:15 for an 89.84% age grade. It was much warmer at the 12 Km Championships in 2022 compared to 2023, which started earlier in the morning. At Atlanta, Fernandez's 16:13 merited a 93.01%. His best longer race, though, the 1:18:49 Half Marathon last October, scores at 85.49%. Schmidt's 36:52 at the 2023 Masters 10 Km Championships scored at 89.67%. His 1:21:12 at the unseasonably warm 2023 Masters Half Marathon Championships earned an 89.43%. The 37:48 that Youngers ran in the 2022 Masters 10 Km Championships earned an age grade score of 89.99. His 39:51 at the AJC Peachtree 10K this July scored at 87.04%. Without a recent longer distance race to consider, it is hard to know how to place Youngers among the ten mile age grading. Taking these data into consideration it seems that Becker, Schmidt and Notaro are most likely to make up the age grading podium, perhaps in that order. As noted earlier, all seven who are mentioned as among the top age graders are outstanding long-distance runners.
TEAMS Itis always tough to know what to do with teams. I can only go on the teams as they were registered. I do not know any of the changes made at packet pickup.
WOMEN: F40+ When registration ended, there were no complete F40+ teams. But the Impalas could all run in F40, even up through Jo Anne Rowland from 75-79. If Shore AC followed the same strategy, then would they move the W50 runners (who make up a complete 50+ team down to the 40+ runner? If either of those happen, all bets are off on what I write from here. F50+ Shore AC has the only complete team [Marzulla, Massell, Puma]. They win unopposed. F60+ This is where the battle is. Atlanta, GVH, Impala, and Shore all have complete teams. With La Burt and Cary leading the way, Shore looks to have the strongest team [with Capko at #3 and Brathwaite and Stirrat providing backup as necessary.]. Atlanta, with Huff and Combs leading the way, look good for 2nd place [with Keane at #3 and Tanner providing backup at #4]. The bronze medal is a tossup between GVH [with Jensen leading the way and Geiger, Newman and Moore all pretty evenly matched in #2 - #4] and Impala [Gibbs leading the way with Quan and Rowland evenly matched]. By the numbers, they look to be within a few minutes of one another.
MEN: M40+ As with the Women there are no M40+ teams. Unlike the Women it would be very surprising if a team drops down runners to have an M40+ team although some could. M50+ Cal Coast apparently did not get a 3rd team member to enter so they are an incomplete team and will not score. That leaves Flanders, Jensen and Mertens to take the M50+ title for GVH with no opposition. M60+ Like F60+ for the Women, this will be a battle. Ann Arbor, Atlanta, and Shore have complete teams. If Becker, Black and Youngers all are able to run their best, Atlanta looks to be a few minutes faster than the other two teams. Ann Arbor and Shore appear to be closely matched. It will depend on how the big three of each team fare. Those are Schmidt, Sak and Fiske for AATC, and Notaro, Dollard, and Hersey for Shore. That assumes no one blows up. If anyone has a bad day the 4th and even 5th runners can make crucial contributions. So Freeman and Mester are important for Ann Arbor; Anderson for Atlanta; and Linnell for Shore. M70+ Here it is Ann Arbor vs. Boulder vs. Shore. They are all close. But it looks as if Boyle, Stirrat and Wilson all run to their full potential, Shore can claim the top spot. The other two are too close to call--a half minute here, a half minute there from any of the top three can make the difference. The only advantage Ann Arbor has is a fuller team roster. Should any of their top three [Kurtis, Matsuo, Pratt] falter, they have Carlin and McClusky from M75 to hold the team score together. Boulder [Chesnut, Bell, Braun] and Shore [Boyle, Stirrat, Wilson] have just three runners each. Every athlete has to have a good day!
That is it! There are tremendous battles in almost every division and highly competitive team battles in several of the team divisions. It should be a great kickoff to the second half of the 2024 Masters National Grand Prix!
