September 13, 2024
The second road race of the fall Masters Grand Prix season is this Sunday, September 15th in Highlands NJ. Athletes contest the 12 Km Championships on the roads of Sandy Hook National Gateway and Recreation Area. Four American Records were broken here in the last three years. Overall, age grading, age division and team championships are at stake. Those who are comfortable running in warm temperatures with a touch of humidity will have the edge. Beautiful weather for the beach, but the weather a week ago was more comfortable for a road race. With the 9 AM start time, apparently the earliest allowed by the National Park Service, it will be sunny, with temperatures near 70F at the start, and a dewpoint in the low to mid 60's. Hydration will be important.
OVERALL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS
WOMEN Roberta Groner looms as the Women’s overall favorite. Top American Marathon finisher at the Doha World Championships, Groner knows about running in warm conditions! She won here three years ago with a fast 42:14 and has not slowed down. This summer she cracked a 34:01 10K in winning the Queens 10K in New York. Elizabeth Wakeling, who finished third here last year in 46:44, will try to deny Groner the win. Her 1:02:41 outing at the Garden State Ten Miler in March and her 38:03 at the Essex County Cherry Blossom 10K show that she is ready to turn in another fast time. Karen Bertasso ran two sub-1:19 half marathons in 2023 if it is the same person. A 38-year-old Bertasso from Fort Collins CO ran a 1:17:49 at the 3M Half Marathon in Austin TX in January 2023. That Bertasso could be 40 now. Three months later a 38-year-old Bertasso from Selkirk NY, who could also be 40 now, ran 1:18:34 at the Druthers Helderberg to Hudson HM. If either of those are the Bertasso who will line up at Sandy Hook on Sunday, she could well have the fitness to crack 44 minutes on a good day. Sarah Bishop stopped the 2018 Yuengling Shamrock Half Marathon clock at 1:16:40, finishing 3rd. That is a faster time, but it was six years ago. She ran in the 2023 USATF Masters Half Marathon Championships at Syracuse in 2023. That was an unseasonably warm day and a hilly course; she finished fourth overall in 1:23:17. On a flat course on a cooler day, Bishop would have been closer to 1:20. That suggests a time under 46 on a good day should be possible for Bishop. Bishop will be in the mix but should not be a threat to Groner. Groner looks likely to win again. After that it should be close among Bertasso, Bishop and Wakeling, with that possibly being the finishing order. We shall find out on Sunday.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Karen Bertasso Sarah Bishop Roberta Groner
MEN The defending champion is back! Brian Flynn burned up the pavement last year with a 39:01 effort! His 1:11:17 at the Ashland Half Marathon in Virginia last month shows that he is fit. Had Mario Vazquez not shown up on the entry list late last week, I was prepared to install Flynn as the strong favorite for a repeat win. After Vazquez won the 2023 Masters 10 Km Championships overall in 31:50, New England Runner started referring to him as 'Super Mario!' He came back in 2024 and ran even faster, 31:02, but ran into the buzzsaw of Joseph Gray, a newly minted Masters athlete and former World Mountain Running champion, who cracked 31 minutes to win. Two months after that race he clocked 1:07:43 at the Fairfield Half Marathon in Connecticut, following that up in August with a 1:10:26 at the Ocean Beach HM in honor of John Kelley, of Boston Marathon fame. Vazquez will be tough to beat! If he has a really good day, Vazquez could even threaten the seemingly unassailable 45-49 AR of 37:17, held for the last dozen years by the great Masters runner, Mbarak Hussein. Fabian Daza, who finished fourth here last year in 40:02, is also ready to challenge; he clocked 1:10:54 at the Jersey City Half Marathon in April. David Angell has had two top ten finishes here in the past when he was battling a gimpy ankle. With that healed, he claimed a podium spot at the Masters 10 Km Championships last year in 33:00 and just finished second at the Masters Ten Mile Championships in Flint Michigan. His 55:09 on the hilly course at Crim suggests he can run close to 40 flat over 12K on a good day. Dickson Mercer, sixth last year, was fifth this year at the 10 Km Masters Championships in 32:54 and had a nifty 2nd Masters finish of 53:17 at the prestigious, and fast, Cherry Blossom Ten Mile in Washington DC. Those both point to sub-40 possibilities on a 12K course. Michael Dixon and Joseph Gaynor, who finished seventh and eighth here last year, in 40:45 and 41:13 will try to move up. Sanjay Rawal finished 2nd at the 2023 Masters Half Marathon Championships. That 1:14:46 would have been faster on a cooler day and a flatter course. He could well break 41 minutes. He ran 2:45:28 at Boston this year. Aaron Totten-Lancaster finished 6th here last year in 41:34. His 56:50 at the Garden State Ten Miler earlier this spring and his August 16:39 at the Asbury Park 5K suggested he was coming in with the same or better fitness. A last-minute argument with his Achilles seems to have been resolved. It looks like Vazquez is the fellow to beat, with Flynn right in there. After that it is a tougher call. Most likely it is a battle between Daza and Mercer for the bronze, with Mercer possibly enjoying a slight edge. But with a loaded field like this, one of the others could always win the day!
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Brian Flynn Dickson Mercer Mario Vazquez
AGE DIVISION NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS
MEN 40-44 Flynn and Mercer are from this age group as is Daza. See Overall section above for details. That gives me those three and a likely order of Vazquez-Flynn-Daza. That is not to say that Dixon and/or Gaynor are going to roll over and let them have it!
Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Fabian Daza Brian Flynn Dickson Mercer
45-49 Angell, Rawal, and Totten-Lancaster would constitute a terrific 45-49 podium. Unfortunately for them, they share the division with the Overall favorite, Vazquez, also the likely winner of this division. Angell, Rawal and Totten-Lancaster come in with similar potential. That will be a battle and any one of the three could easily win it. Given the slight argument with his Achilles, I will leave Totten-Lancaster off the predicted podium and let him prove me wrong with a strong run on Sunday!
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
David Angell Sanjay Rawal Mario Vazquez
50-54 A last minute entry by David Guzik has churned up this division. Until that, I had Frederick Dolan, dubbed 'Fast Freddie' by some teammates, as the favorite. Dolan comes in fresh from an M50 silver medal at the Masters 10 Mile Championships in Flint, MI. His 1:00:46 on that hilly course suggests he should be ready to crack 46 minutes and that seemed to be enough for a win. But Duzik comes in fresh from an M50 win, on Labor Day, at the Faxon Law 20K in New Haven. His 1:14:21 there translates into a sub-44-minute effort on a similar 12 K course and day. That is strong enough to move him into the favorite's role. But if Guzik runs more like his day at the June Faxon Law Fairfield Half Marathon where he took the division in 1:21:26, it is likely that Dolan can hang with him over 12K, and then it could be a duel to the finish. Others who have a good shot at making the podium include Dolan's teammate, Brian Sydow. After a couple of years of less active participation, Sydow is now back as an important contributor to his team. Sydow finished -within a half-minute of Dolan at the Masters 5 Km Championships. There was a bigger gap at Dedham over 10 Km, but Sydow still turned in a top ten finish in the division at 38:32. That suggests Sydow is probably primed for a 47-minute or better effort over 12K. Sydow will have to battle Luis Absalon, who finished fifth here last year in 45:31. Absalon's efforts this winter and spring, a 1:04:21 at the Super Sunday 10 Miler in February and a 59:35 15K at the Spring Distance Classic, are also consistent with a 47-minute 12 K effort. Overall, I would go with Guzik over Dolan and then Absalon and Sydow close with, perhaps, a slight edge to Absalon for his fast top 5 finish on this course last year.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Luis Absalon Frederick Dolan David Guzik
55-59 Brian Crowley returns as the defending champion and favorite. His 42:32 not only gave him the 55-59 win, but his 42:31 chip time gave him a top 5 age grading finish. Crowley's 55:38 15K at the Spring Distance Classic in April shows that his fitness was still strong this spring. In June he ran 17:31 at the Fitzgerald Lager 5K, another piece of evidence in favor of his being likely to crank out a similar 12K time this year as last year. Mark Hixson finished third last year, just 41 seconds behind Crowley. Hixson has been focusing on shorter races recently. But his 36:31 M55 silver medal effort at the 10 Km Championships stands out. His 29:01 at the Brantford 5 Miler in mid-June adds to the impression that he might be able to stay with Crowley. Hixson's last three summer 5K's were 17:58, 17:43 and 17:23. Could be a race! Interestingly, both Crowley and Hixson are in their last year in the age division. Shane Anthony is one of the new kids on the block, just 55. He can stay with Crowley and Hixson and may be able to beat them. His 57:04 at the Credit Union Cherry Blossom Ten Miler in D.C. in April equates to something like a 42-minute or better 12K. Anthony finished 2nd at Cross Nationals in Richmond VA this January. He cracked a 17:11 5K in March. Looks like it could be a three-way race! Scott Siriano finished fourth here last year in 45:31, a minute and change behind Hixson. This spring, Siriano clocked 37:40 to finish 6th at the Masters 10 Km Championships. He finished 5th last month at the 10 Mile Championships with a 1:04:56. Siriano is always dangerous, a consistent high performer; it would take a superlative effort for him to make the podium. A newcomer to the 12K, Carlos Nunes could make some noise. His record matches up well with Siriano's although not at national championships. He ran a 37:20 10K at the Ridgewood Run in June. Back in February, he clocked 1:04:22 at the Super Saturday 10 Mile Run. It looks like a real barn burner between Anthony, Crowley and Hixson for 1-2-3. But do not count either Nunes or Siriano out. On a given day, either could pull the upset and wind up in the top three. The champ is the champ until someone beats him, so I give Crowley the edge going in. After that is anyone's guess. But I will give Hixson a slight edge for knowing the course and having performed well on it last year. Anthony can have the incentive of trying to prove me wrong on race day!
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Shane Anthony Brian Crowley Mark Hixson
60-64 Everyone expected Henry Notaro to show up on the entry list as one of the hometown favorites, along with Rick Lee and he finally did. On the same day, Nat Larson's name appeared. Larson, Lee, and Notaro finished 1st, 2nd and fourth in the division last year, at 42:26, 43:35 and 44:17. Larson enters the favorite. He holds every M60 American Record from the Mile to the Half Marathon. He took the win at Dedham over 10K in April at 34:59, finishing well over a minute ahead of Lee. Last year he won here, a minute ahead of Lee. Notaro was another minute back. Based on that history, it seems easy to say it should be Larson-Lee-Notaro for 1-2-3. But there are some wrinkles. I cannot find any results for Larson since late April. That is a little uncharacteristic although; to be honest, Larson does not compete in a lot of road races over the summer. In 2022 he competed at WMA Outdoors, but he did not compete this year. The question is whether Larson was just taking a well-earned break or was he perhaps rehabbing some niggling injury. For now, I presume he is here to compete at the front of the division and contend for a top age grading award as he typically does. Lee is not coming in quite as solidly as last year. He has had an up and down late summer, with some niggling issues with a calf. Lee is a tough runner, though. Despite that calf issue, he still ran 37:07 on a tough 10K course at WMA in Sweden last month. The calf, and racing in so many events, forced him to pull the plug three miles into the Half Marathon on the final day. Having said that, he still ran the Fifth Avenue Mile in early September, clocking 5:19. His enthusiasm for racing can, seemingly, overcome almost anything. Notaro, on the other hand, is coming in off a nice 3rd place finish at the USATF Masters 10 Mile Championship on August 24th. His 1:03:22 equates to a 46:26 12 Km effort on an equally challenging course, and probably faster on a flat course like at Sandy Hook. Lester Dragstedt finished5th at the 12K here last year and was 4th at the Masters 10 Km Championships this spring, at the end of April. Had he not incurred a stress fracture in late May, it is likely that Dragstedt could have tested the leading trio. Although he was able to break 19 minutes in the 5000M at WMA, it will probably be a while before he can challenge for a podium in this highly competitive division. There are several others who can break 50 but it seems unlikely that any of them will finish much under 47 minutes. With the information at hand it seems unwise to pick any other order than Larson-Lee-Notaro. Given the up-and-down nature of Lee's last month of racing, he is less certain than in the recent past.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Nat Larson Rick Lee Henry Notaro
65-69 This will be Jay Littlepage's first national championship in the 65-69 division. He has, perhaps, the strongest credentials coming in. He finished fifth at the USATF Masters 10 Km Championships at the end of April in 38:58. In June, Littlepage clocked a 1:34:17 at the Steamboat Half marathon at latitude. A better indicator might be his 1:28:41 at the Livermore Half Marathon in March of this year. That course is not flat but it is not at altitude. He will have to get past Ken Youngers, who won M65 at the 2022 10 Km Championships in 37:48. Youngers' results have been a bit more variable since then. He did not compete in the 10Km championships in 2023; this spring he finished 2nd in M65 there at 40:34. That was slower than Littlepage's effort on that day. But Youngers is coming off a fine second place effort on the hilly Crim course in Flint Mi for the USATF Masters 10 Mile Championships. His 1:05:00 there suggests he can give Littlepage a good battle if he can match his Flint effort. It should be a fun outing for those two! John Blaser, Kevin Dollard, and Carl Gensib appear to be the fastest runners in the hunt for the final podium spot. Blaser finished 4th in M60 at Dedham in the 10 Km Championships, a minute and a half behind Youngers. He finished fourth again at the ten mile championships in Flint three weeks ago, in 1:10:19. Dollard finished 47 seconds behind Blaser at Dedham but was only a single second behind him at the 10 Mile in Flint. All four times suggest that both can run somewhere in the 51-52-minute range for a 12K. Will it be third times the charm for Dollard or will Blaser maintain his edge? And what about Gensib? Last year he ran in the USATF-NJ side of the race, clocking 51:12. His 1:32:04 at the Jersey Shore HM, in early October 2023, converts to a 50:51 12K. But before one concludes that Gensib seems to be a favorite over Blaser and Dollard, we see that Gensib ran nearly ten minutes slower at the Princeton HM in November 2023. All we can say again is that it looks like a heck of a race...may the best runner win! Since I have to pick one of them to add to the likely podium contenders, I will go with Blaser and Dollard over Gensib because of more national championships experience, and then with Blaser. He has been just a bit faster than Dollard. The Champs the champ until shown not to be.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
John Blaser Jay Littlepage Ken Youngers
70-74 Joe Reda won the M70 10Km championships this year in 42:38 but Reno Stirrat was just a little over a half minute behind him in fifth place. It was closer at the 10 Mile championships in Flint where Reda's fourth place effort in 1:12:37 was just two seconds faster than Stirrat's fifth place finish. Not far back from those two are Don Morrison, Fernando Moura, and Eugene Myers. Just as Reda and Stirrat seem poised to battle for the win, these three are poised to vie for the bronze medal. Morrison was just 15 seconds behind Stirrat and 54 seconds behind Reda at the 10 Km Championships. Morrison won the M70 division here in Sandy Hook in 2021 with a 54:48. At the 10 Mile championships, Morrison was two minutes behind that duo. Myers was 40 seconds behind Morrison. His 1:08:51 15K that same month is consistent with the notion that Myers is close but a little behind Morrison right now. Morrison also had the edge at Cross Nationals in Richmond VA in January. Moura finished 3rd here at Sandy Hook in 52:02. Two years later, Moura probably cannot match that 52:02. But an age grading exercise suggests two years late that equates to something like a 53:21. His 1:39:27 Philadelphia Half Marathon converts to a 54:48, the same as Morrison's winning 2021 time. Based on that evidence, I give a slight edge to Moura but Morrison could certainly upset that guess. Myers will need a good day to get past both Morrison and Moura. I give a slight edge to Moura for the bronze and an edge to Reda over Stirrat.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Fernando Moura Joe Reda Reno Stirrat
75-79 This division is Jerry Learned's to lose. He finished third in this division in the Masters 10 Km Championships with his 46:35. No one else here has broken 50 minutes recently in a 10K. I, Paul Carlin, am the closest and I was not that close. I finished seventh in the division at Dedham in 51:33. Learned also finished 3rd in Atlanta in 23:35, well faster than anyone else entered in M75 this time. One could point to the lack of races longer than 10K in the last two years as raising a question. But 12Km is only 2 Km longer than a 10 Km. When healthy, Learned has had no difficulty in scaling his efforts up to a 15K. In 2022 on this course, he finished 5th in 70-74 in 55:54. He struggled the first half of 2023 with a health issue but once he got that sorted, he has run well. The evidence points to Carlin having the next best recent record coming in. Allen Joyce is not far off, but I have had the recent edge. In 2022, Joyce finished 8th in 70-74 in 1:01:25; I was 4th in 75-79 in 1:04:12. But in 2023 I ran faster, 1:02:19, partially due to the gentler weather in 2023 and partly to better fitness. This year I was able to come in almost two minutes ahead of Joyce at Cross Nationals and 45 seconds ahead a month later at the 5 Km Championships in Atlanta. Since then, we have not met. The only race I can find for him since April is a 26:06 5K in Georgia that is roughly equivalent to what he was running in February. I have not only the 51:33 in Dedham, but a good winning effort at the hilly Beach to Beacon 10K in Maine, in early August, at 53:08. My 1:28:19 at the 10 Mile Championships three weeks ago was, in some ways my worst race ever. If I run like that again, Joyce has a good shot at coming in ahead of me. We should be the top three. Bruce Langenkamp who ran 1:05:43 here last year and clocked 55:57 at the Ridgewood Run 10K could threaten for the podium if the day goes his way. Przemek Nowicki is always dangerous. He has won national championships in the past and he has good leg speed if a race comes down to the finish. But he has had challenges recently and does not appear quite ready to challenge for the podium. He ran 1:09:19 at Sandy hook last year. This August he clocked 57:07 at the 10K road race at WMA in Sweden, a sign that he is regaining his fitness.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Paul Carlin Allen Joyce Jerry Learned
80-84 Jan Frisby is the favorite but he has to get by Tom Jennings. Frisby ran 51:57 at the 10 Km Masters championship this April. That equates to something like a 1:03:12. Unfortunately he has been coping with a strained glute since May. He had to skip some track races at WMA where he had hoped to compete. He did run in the 10 Km Road race but could only manage a 57:33. Frisby is coming with the goal of finishing in the top three for the Grand prix points and protecting the glute. He does not want to strain the glute again, but he wants to raise his M80 GP point total closer to 500. Jennings has had a couple of good outings this spring, a 44:31 at the Spring Lake 5 Miler and a 1:29:36 at the fast Blue Cross Broad Street Ten Miler. Those equate roughly to a 12 Km effort in the 1:06 to 1:07 range. That is about where Frisby hopes to be as well. Not far off those two is Edward Leydon who ran a 1:34:05 Ten Miler in Annapolis MD. That equates roughly to a 1:08-1:09 12 Km effort. It does not look like any of the other entrants can run under 1:20. If any of those top three has an off day, Tony Fiory, who ran 1:24:25 to finish 2nd in 80-84 here last year, is most likely to move up.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Jan Frisby Tom Jennings Edward Leydon
WOMEN 40-44 Bertasso, Bishop and Wakeling are mentioned prominently as contenders for the overall win, and they are all from this division. Hence, they are the favorites in this division. Jessica Francis ran 29:36 at the Belmar 5 Mile run last September and clocked a 1:22:31 half marathon in November at the Wildwood Beach Festival. Maria Mahoney ran a 39:21 10K at the Ridgewood Run and Whitney Heavner ran a 1:04:20 at the Credit Union Cherry Blossom 10 Miler in D.C. Any of those three could break onto the podium if any of the top three are not at their best.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Karen Bertasso Sarah Bishop Elizabeth Wakeling
45-49 Roberta Groner, favored to win the Overall race, is the favorite to take this 45-49 title as well. Jeanelle Jamison deserves the second mention. Her 1:31:29 half marathon at the Philadelphia Distance Run last September suggests a time around 50:00 should be possible for a 12K. Her 1:08:05 at the Blue Cross Broad Street 10 Mile Run this May confirms that suggestion. Natacha Smith's 44:35 at the Revolutionary Run 10K on the 4th of July and her 37:02 8K effort ten days later are consistent with a 54-56 minute 12K. She just added a 1:41:39 half marathon to her results. That is comparable to Alicia Eno's 1:41:06 at the Lincoln Half Marathon in May. That and her 4th place 45-49 finish, in 1:16:35, at the Masters Ten Mile Championships in Flint last month, both point to a 56-minute 12K. As both races are well over 12K, and the Crim course is hilly, and Eno is not a long-distance specialist per se, those may understate her potential for a fast 12K. If so, she should be primed to give Smith a battle for the bronze medal. With the exception of that potential duel between Eno and Smith, the order seems clearly to start with Groner and Jamison 1-2. If I have to choose between Eno and Smith I could give Eno the edge on the basis of her greater experience in Masters national championships or for running a half marathon a half minute faster.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Alicia Eno Roberta Groner Jeanelle Jamison
50-54 Hortencia Aliaga has upped her game this year. She enters as the favorite for the 12K. Aliaga was 7th overall and 1st in 45-49 last year in these 12 K championships with a 50:34. She gave an early indication of her improved fitness with a 38:55 10K at the Essex County Cherry Blossom Run. That equates roughly to a 47-minute 12K effort. At WMA this August she knocked that 10 K time down, even though I understand the course was challenging. Her bronze medal run in 38:09 converts to a low 46-minute 12K. Abby Dean has had more challenges over the last year and a half or so after running at the top of this division for a couple of years. She is just a little behind Aliaga right now. Dean finished 3rd in 50-54 at the 10 Km championships in 40:03 and then at WMA she finished about a minute behind Aliaga, finishing 5th. Alexandra Marzulla finished 6th here last year in 52:32. Three weeks ago she finished third again at a national championship, clocking 1:12:07 to claim the bronze medal at the ten miler in Flint. To run that time on a hilly course suggests Marzulla might have the fitness to run a faster 12 K this year. If any of those three are not at their best, one could make a case for any one of six athletes to break onto the podium. Kimberly Aspholm was 8th in 50-54 last year in 53:45. Her 44:22 at the Cherry Blossom 10K from this April converts to a similar time. If Polly Harrison can run as she did at the Runapalooza Half Marathon, clocking 1:37:48, she can likely run under 55 minutes at the 12K. Which Katherine Huggins will we see? The one who ran 1:39:07 at the Greenbrier HM in West Virginia in May or the one who ran 1:31:45 at the Celebration Half Marathon in Cleveland in July? If the latter, Huggins becomes the favorite for the bronze medal; if the former, she is just one of those in the hunt to pry Marzulla off the podium. Maria Narvaez, Gabrielle Panepinto, and Alysia Puma al have results consistent with mid-50 or better 12K's. For now, I leave Marzulla as a podium contender and let the others try to prove the list wrong on Sunday, if they can.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Hortencia Aliaga Abby Dean Alexandra Marzulla
55-59 Last year Fiona Bayly cracked the top 5 overall here and won the division in 47:34. She struggled a bit at the ten-mile championships but still enjoyed a silver medal in 1:07:27, consistent with a sub-50 minute 12K. And do not forget that Bayly clocked 1:24:32 to win this division at the UA NYC Half Marathon in March consistent with a 47-minute 12K. None of the other athletes in the division look likely to run that fast. In November of last year, Lori Kingsley ran a 1:04:04 15K at the Stockade-a-thon and followed that up with a 1:34:20 at the Race The Lake Half Marathon. They are consistent with a 51-52 minute or better 12K. There are three athletes poised to run somewhere between 57 and 59 minutes. Anabelle Broadbent finished 6th here last year in 57:36. Her 1:17:44 in the Blue Cross Broad Street 10 Mile Run this May confirmed that fitness. Maureen Massell finished 12th in the division at the 10 Km championships this year in 47:20, consistent with a 57 minute or so 12K. Her outing at the Ten Mile championships earned her a bronze W55 medal. The time is not as fast, but the Crim is a hilly course. Karyn Sable Feder finished 7th here in this division last year in 58:54. Laura Delea is a question mark. A top runner for years, Delea has had an up and down last couple of years. In 2022 when the weather was warm and humid, Delea clocked 56:52 at the 12 Km championships, finishing 9th in the division. A month later she ran 54:17 at the East Brunswick 15K. Last year she did not compete in the 12K. This year started off better with a silver 55-59 medal at Cross nationals in Richmond. This summer she has run a series of 5K's between 21:29 and 21:49. If she can scale that up, she could crack 55 minutes and be a threat for the podium. But it is not clear if she has been able to build up that kind of endurance. Bayly and Kingsley appear to be comfortable picks for 1-2. After that, I will go with Broadbent whose Sandy Hook outing last year and her longer ten mile run this year both confirm her fitness for a 47 minute 12K. But Massell, Sable Feder, or Delea could pull the upset.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Anabelle Broadbent Fiona Bayly Lori Kingsley
60-64 Suzanne La Burt won here last year in 49:12. At Dedham in April this year she won the 10K division championships in 40:58 and ran 12 seconds faster in June at the Citizens Queens 10K. But she really raise her game at the ten-mile championships when she won the division and finished 2nd in age grading. Her winning gun time of 1:05:23 converts to a 47:28 12K effort. That cements her as the favorite in this division. Mary Cass was the top runner in the division before La Burt aged up. Since then, she has been a close second often but has not yet found a way to come in ahead of La Burt. She was a little less than a minute behind la Burt in the 12K last year and a little over a minute behind La Burt in the 10K this year. Cass seems likely to run in the low 50-minute range again this year. Dana Blum ran 44:34 at the San Francisco Giant 10k last month, converting roughly to a low 53-minute 12K, probably not fast enough to challenge Cass. Blum does not run many races that are over 10Km, with the exception of Bay to Breakers which is more party than a race. Donna Grocki may be able to challenge Blum for the bronze medal on that basis. Grocki finished 7th here last year in 54:34. Grocki ran a 45:58 at the Philly 5K three weeks ago. It could go either way. La Burt and Cass going 1-2 seems a safe bet. I will go with Blum's speed over 10K to make the difference.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Dana Blum Mary Cass Suzanne La Burt
65-69 Three years of 12 Km national championships on the Jersey Shore and three years of Nora Cary wining the 65-69 division. Her times have been 51:09, 54:10, and 52:35. She is riding the wave! Three weeks ago, Cary age graded over 100% with her win at the Masters 10 Mile championships with a 1:11:01, averaging 7:06 per mile! Just as Cary has a lock on 1st place, Candace Stanton looks to have a firm grip on the silver medal finish. She finished 2nd to Cary here last year in 56:02 and she has not let up. At the Spring Distance Classic this April, Stanton ran a 1:10:51 15K, which converts roughly to a 55:49. It appears that Diane Rothman may be the only other runner with a good shot at hitting the one hour mark. Her 1:16:36 15K at the Spring Distance Classic converts to a 1:00:21 12K. But Rothman will have to stay ahead of Lisa Vaughn who finished 7th at the 10 Km Championships last April with a 52:06 effort. She just came in fourth three weeks ago at the 10 Mile Championships in 1:26:39. Both convert roughly to low 1:03 12K's. The division is packed this year. Hilary Fandel, Kim Hart, and Susan Stirrat have all run recent 10K's almost as fast as Vaughn's. Cary and Stanton and Rothman look good for 1-2-3 but there is no room for an off day. The division is too strong this year.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Nora Cary Diane Rothman Candace Stanton
70-74 In February 2023, Marybeth Campau ran a 31:19 5Km. If one converts that race to a 12Km time and adds a year of age, the calculator converts it to a 1:19:43. If that equivalence works, she has the fastest 'predicted' time coming in. But there is lots of uncertainty. Converting a 5K to a 12K is a lot easier on paper than it is in real life. In real life, you have to log the miles and do some speedier miles too. The other worry is no races, at least not ones I can easily find between then and now. The athletes who have been finishing just off the podium have their chance this year. The record-breakers are not here this year. Roberta Geist, who finished fourth last year in 1:23:49, returns this year as do the 6th and 7th place finishers, Debra Bernstein, 1:32:45, and Roseann Svihra, 1:36:37. Margaret McHale clocked 1:02:38 at the Spring Lake 5 Mi race this spring, coming in a couple of minutes ahead of Svihra. My guess is that Geist will move up and take the win this year. Exactly how to factor in Campau is a puzzle. Without her in the mix, I would probably put Bernstein and McHale as most likely for 2nd and 3rd. I will stick with that on the expectation that if Campau has taken time off, whether for injury or some other reason, her capacity to take on a 12 K is not what it was a year and a half ago. But I will not be surprised to see her on the podium either.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Debra Bernstein Roberta Geist Margaret McHale
75-79 Bonnie Brunish finished 5th here in 70-74 last year with a 1:25:14. Her 1:55:21 15K in the Spring Distance Classic this past April suggests her fitness may be slightly off. But it will not matter whether that is so or not. She is not in a new age division, one that attracted only Brunish as an entrant. She must finish, not necessarily easy on a sunny, humid day by the sea. But she is ready and will be on the podium at the end of the morning, no doubt!
85-89 There is a wrinkle to that 75-79 story in this division. Sandra Folzer finished 2nd in 80-84 in 2021, running 1:21:00. She took the gold medal in the division the next two years in 1:24:15, 2022, and in 1:28:10 last year. Folzer goes for her third gold in a row. But this year she has no rivals. Like Brunish in 75-79, Folzer's main task is to finish. There is little doubt that she will do so and will stand tall on the podium at the end of the morning tomorrow.
AGE GRADING NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS
Age Grading is an exercise that rates each runner against the World's Best performance for that precise year of age. If the World's Best 12K performance for a 60-year-old male was 40 minutes for example, and a 60-year-old ran 50 minutes, his performance level percentage PLP, would be (40/50) x 100, or 80%. The more I am around the sport, the less enamored am I of the association between 90% and above as World Class, 80% and above as 'national class'. Terms like 'World Class' and 'National Class' seem to suggest relative competitiveness. It appears that PLP levels vary across age groups and across genders. Yet there does not seem to be similar trends in terms of winning medals at world championships. More on this in a future post. There is no doubt that the top PLP's go to the fastest runners across age divisions, those who perform near the top of their age division whenever they are fit and healthy.
WOMEN In the Women’s contest, Nora Cary, 69, goes for two in a row. The winner at Flint with a score of 100.26 percent, Cary enters the favorite. Suzanne La Burt, 61, who finished 2nd to Cary in Flint at 97.27 percent, along with Groner, 46, Hortencia Aliaga, 52, Fiona Bayly, 57, and Mary Cass, 63, will make sure the winner has earned it! Last year Cary, Cass, and La Burt finished 2-3-5 in age grading here at the 12 km Championships. Their PLP's were: 97.7, 94.6, and 93.5. Bayly was at 92.1. Aliaga was down in the emid-80's but has, arguably, shown the most improvement. Aliaga’s 10K bronze medal at the World Masters Championships earned 90.33 percent. Three years ago, Groner's winning time of 42:14 at age 43 graded at 90.29%, good for 6th place. This year it appears she has a similar fitness. She is likely to see her PLP rise. Whether it will rise enough to make the podium this year is an open question. My guess is that we shall again see Cary, Cass and La Burt on the podium. Given the performance of La Burt at the 10 Mile championships, it may be that she can move up from 3rd to 2nd. We will find out tomorrow.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Nora Cary Mary Cass Suzanne La Burt
MEN Nat Larson, who holds all the M60 American Road Records from the 1 Mile to the Half Marathon, will compete, once again. In my brief pre-race preview, written before registration closed, I thought, wrongly that Rick Becker, who won the age grading at the ten mile championships three weeks ago, would compete. Apologies to Rick! Other top contenders include Vazquez, Brian Crowley, Rick Lee, and Ken Youngers. Last year Larson and Lee went 1-2 here, with Crowley fifth. Their PLP's were: 93.7, 92.4, and 91.0. Youngers finished 3rd at the ten-mile championships last month with an 89.43 PLP. Vazquez split Larson and Lee at the Masters 10 Km championships. Larson, Vazquez, and Lee finished 1-2-3 with PLP's of 93.62, 91.84, and 91.33. I am not sure there is a good reason to think the order might be different on Sunday. Lee has had enough ups and downs recently that his spot is, arguably, the least secure. Crowley is, perhaps, a bit more likely to move up onto the podium than Youngers, should Lee, or either of the other two run into problems.
Likely Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order
Nat Larson Rick Lee Mario Vazquez
TEAMS NOTE: Preview based on Status of Entries as of Thursday night when online registration closed. I had no access to any team changes made at packet pickup on Saturday. I don't specifically identify an order of finish although I do talk about it and, in some cases, do include a few guesses. It is always tricky to guess outcomes of team races because there are so many unknowns and so many possible challenges to success. But here goes anyway! [The treatment here is more free-wheeling than the rest.]
M40+ With Flynn, Daza, Gaynor and Totten-Lancaster all drawing a mention in the Overall Championships section, the Garden State Track Club is a solid favorite in this division. Shore AC Edward Ross, Joseph Maranzani, Christopher Whitehead, and Andrew Yeardsley looks good for a battle with Fleet Feet/Essex Brian Rock, Danny Santos, Glen Freyer for the silver medal position.
M50+ The Atlanta Track Club Christophe Cadou, Frederick Dolan, Brian Sydow and the Shore AC Jeff Conston, Joseph Demetrick, Ken Ginsburg look closely matched for the team win. It may be equally close between the Greater Springfield Harriers Nat Larson, Mark Hixson, Francis Burdett and the New jersey Pacers Carlos Nunes, Alberto Perez, Ed Kavanagh depending on what Burdett brings to the 12K this weekend. Burdett had hip replacement scheduled at some point. But I cannot remember if he was already on the way back from that at Dedham or if it had been postponed and will have happened in the interim. If he runs as well as he did in Dedham or better, the lead that Larson and Hixson build up should certainly be safe. If he is in worse shape than that, perhaps from recovering from the replacement surgery, then the NJ Pacers may get the bronze.
M60+ It looks like Atlanta Ken Youngers, Lester Dragstedt, Casey Hannan, Greg Oshust have four athletes who can break 50 minutes. So even if Dragstedt's stress fracture recovery is not full or if one of the others runs into an unexpected problem, they look like a pretty robust 2:26 or so. Shore Henry Notaro, Donald Schwarz, Carl Gensib, Kevin Dollard should start with an advantage from Notaro, but their other three runners are all probably more like 51 to 52-minute runners for a 12K. If so, that gives Atlanta a small edge, but an edge. It looks closer between Ann Arbor Track Club Larry Sak, Rich Power, Ward Freeman and the Genesee Valley Harriers Mike Mertens, Wayne Crandall, Tim Riccardi. If Sak and Power can hand with Mertens and if Freeman is not too far adrift of Crandall and Riccardi, their total times, by guess and by golly, come out around 2:35. That looks like a toss-up for the bronze medal.
M70+ Shore Reno Stirrat, Peter Auteri, Bill Bosmann, Ken Wilson should get an initial lead from Stirrat. But then the Greater Philadelphia Track Club Don Morrison, Fernando Moura, Tom Jennings should have both Morrison and Mora finishing shortly after Stirrat. But then Auteri and Bosmann should finish right around an hour. Then it will be a waiting game to see if Jennings can have the exceptional 1:05 or better he would need out of the 80-84 division. If he can, the gold medals could go either way. But Shore is favored with GPTC a close second. With neither Kirk Larson nor Dave Glass on the roster, Atlanta Jerry Learned, Ward Irvin, Allen Joyce will probably be looking at the bronze medals and 80 points toward the M70+ Grand Prix.
W40+ Garden State Elizabeth Wakeling, Maria Mahoney, Jeanelle Jamison looks good for the win, although Shore Jessica Francis, Karen dos Santos, Natacha Smith is not far off. If Wakeling stays close to Francis, or vice versa, Mahoney comes in a little ahead of the rest, with Jamison staying with dos Santos and both finishing well ahead of Smith, GSTC gets the win. Local NJ clubs, who are mainly focused on the USATF-NJ GP points will, nonetheless, compete for the bronze medals here. They are: Fleet Feet/Essex racing, Clifton Road Runners and Raritan Valley, with that being, perhaps, the likely order of finish.
W50+ Garden State Hortencia Aliaga, Kim Aspholm, Katherine Huggins, Gabrielle Panepinto, Greater Philadelphia Abby Dean, Mary Swan, Anabelle Broadbent and Shore AC Ali Marzulla, Alysia Puma, Laura Delea battle for the win. GSTC appears to have the edge. Aliaga should be first finisher and two of the three, Aspholm, Huggins and Panepinto should at least hold their own against the second two of GPTC and Shore. It could be close between GPTC and Shore. Dean gives GPTC the early edge but if Marzulla is not too far back and if Puma and Delea can run with or ahead of Swan and Broadbent, Shore could get the silver medals.
W60+ Shore Suzanne La Burt, Nora Cary, Donna Grocki should take the win here. Liberty AC Mary Cass, Amanda King, Mary McNullty looks good for second. Even if Cass can stay close to La Burt, Cary should come in well ahead of King and McNulty, with Grocki a good bet to edge both or at least be very close. Impala Racing Dana Blum, Suzanne Cordes, Teresa Quan is probably here mostly for the team GP points. They sent three very talented runners but they will have a hard time matching up with Shore and Liberty.
That is it! We can hope that the weather is not much of a factor and that all have good, solid races tomorrow.
