Thursday, August 22, 2019

Masters Athletes with Speed to Burn at the 2019 USATF Masters 1 Mile Championships

August 22, 2019.  Fleet Masters athletes will be burning up the roads this Friday evening, August 23rd. The USATF Masters 1 Mile National Championships are hosted for the 6th consecutive year by the Michigan Mile at the HAP Crim Festival of Races Weekend. It looks to be another near-perfect evening for racing this year. The race time forecast is for 71 degrees under mostly sunny skies with low humidity, 47%, and winds at 8-9 mph. The Men’s race goes off at 6:45 pm with the Women at 7 pm. The course is the same as last year, is record eligible and USATF certified. The event is sanctioned which means that any records set will be validated once the paperwork is submitted.
The Start of the Men's Race at the 2018 USATF Masters (Road) Mile Championships Hosted by the Crim Foundation's Michigan Mile [Photo by Carter Sherline, Frog Prince Studios]


Overall Championships
MEN Chuck Schneekloth, is the top returning Men’s athlete from the 2018 Overall Championships. He claimed 3rd then in 4:49, and won Silver Medals this year at the NCCWMA Championships in the 800- and 1500-Meter events. His 4:20:22 in the 1500 Meters is considered roughly equivalent to a 4:41 Mile, so Schneekloth may be even more formidable this year. He just clocked 4:34 to break the Masters Course record at the Midland Mile! His chief rival will be Mark Andrews, the 2016 10K Masters National Champion, who just took the Bronze Medal Overall at the 5K Masters Championships in Atlanta in 15:57. That time is age-grade equivalent to a 4:35 track mile. So the potential is there for Andrews to challenge Schneekloth. Others in contention include Philip Potvin,  who finished 4 seconds behind Schneekloth last year; Athlinks has no race results for him since then. That suggests he may not be at top racing fitness. Ben Van Male ran a 4:50.0 mile in July 2018 and ran a 4:52.66 in the Wisco Mile in June; the Wisco Mile is on the track and is designed to be fast by including pacing rabbits, music, and special announcing. Mark Walchinsky ran a 4:55.1 at the Loudoun Street Mile in May and then a 4:45.8 Mile on the track in July. The Loudoun Street Mile is a straight shot Mile so is likely a faster course than at Flint. Todd Straka and Nat Larson finished 4th and 6th in 2017 on this course (reversed) in 4:48 and 4:49. Larson was on the top of his game that year; he ran a 15:54 to set the M55 American 5K Record a few weeks later. Given his recent 16:54 after coming back from an absence, it seems unrealistic to expect him t match that time.  Straka ran 4:32 in the Superior Downhill Mile, but the course in Flint is definitely not downhill, and not straight. Although Straka is probably better at the Mile than the 5K, his recent 17:05 5K time suggests a 4:49 may be a stretch too far as well. But we shall see. I cannot find a recent Mile time for Tim Van Orden but he has had a fine running year already with a 28:11 at the challenging Bridge of Flowers 8K and a 16:00 at the Run Westfield America's Fastest 5K! If that means he can run a 16:30 on an ordinary course, he could well run a road mile in something like 4:45.
Chuck Schneekloth     Mark Andrews     Tim Van Orden

WOMEN The favorite is Sonja Friend-Uhl, who took the 800-meter and 1 Mile crowns at the Indoor National Championships in 2:21.5 and 5:21.8. She displayed excellent current fitness winning the Silver Medal at the 5K Masters Championships this past weekend in 17:34. Her strongest challenges will come from Fiona Bayly, who ran a 5:20 at the Fifth Avenue mile last year and finished 4th in the 5K in Atlanta last Saturday in 18:23. Bayly had a non-racing injury in March that affected one of her ankles. So approaching 5:20 may not be a reasonable expectation, especially on this more challenging course. Doreen McCoubrie finished 3rd here last year in 5:34. Her teammate, Marisa Sutera Strange, was 5th in the Mile last year in 5:39 and 5th last week in Atlanta in 18:38. Those two might crack the podium. Jill Braley  took 2nd at the 5K Masters Cross Country Championships and ran a 5:26.8 on the track at the Music City Distance Carnival this spring and an 18:12 5K in June. That pedigree is offset, though, by the 19:22 clocking in Atlanta last week. That raises questions about current fitness. Melissa Gacek, who took 2nd Overall last year, had to scratch due to family responsibilities. Jennifer St. Jean, who finished 3rd Overall at the 10K Masters Championships in April, suffered a stress fracture in May. She ceased training but resumed in mid-July. On August 18 she ran 5:23 in the Midland Avenue Mile. That suggests she is primed for a good effort on Friday. Cristina Burbach, who ran 5:37 at the Loudoun Street Mile and 5:35 at the Liberty Mile, will be right there in the lead pack, pressing for a podium finish. In 2017, Renee Tolan ran the Liberty Mile, won this Championship (reverse direction), and the 5th Avenue Mile. It is an imperfect indicator but suggestive. Tolan's times were 5:21 (Liberty), 5:24 (Flint), 5:03 (5th Avenue).
Sonja Friend-Uhl     Jennifer St. Jean     Fiona Bayly
The Start of the Women's Race at the 2018 USATF Masters (Road) Mile Championships Hosted by the Crim Foundation's Michigan Mile [Photo by Carter Sherline, Frog Prince Studios]

Age Grading Championships 
WOMEN Symbolic of the best performance, relative to age, across all age divisions, age-grading scores range from 0 up to 100 with 90 considered ‘World Class’. The favorite on the Women’s side is Jeannie Rice, 71, who won here last year with a 100.73%. She also set the W70 American Record. Strange, 56, who took the title last weekend at the 5K Championships with a 94.86%, is a good bet for 2nd. Not far back from Strange in the 5K were Friend-Uhl, 48, at 92.06, and Bayly, 52, at 92.04--How's that for close!. McCoubrie, 56 last year, outpointed Strange, 55, in 2018, with a 96.90. Rice has several 5K's in the 22 and change range this summer; her August 3rd effort was 21:17. That age-grades at just over 100%. Unless something has gone wrong in the last two weeks , Rice is a safe bet for the win. McCoubrie beat Strange last year but Strange was a bit off her game last year at this time. 
Jeannie Rice     Marisa Sutera Strange     Doreen McCoubrie
Jeannie Rice finishing off her American Record setting performance at the 2018 USATF Masters (Road) Mile Championships Hosted by the Crim Foundation's Michigan Mile

MEN The favorite is Nat Larson, who took the age-grading title at the 5K Championships last weekend with a 92.20%; he took 2nd in the 2017 Mile Championships with 91.75%. Mark Andrews finished 3rd in age-grading last week with 91.10%. Doug Goodhue, the 'Silver Bullet', finished  5thwith 90.82. Both will be in the thick of the age-grading race again this week. Dave Bussard returns to the Grand Prix circuit; he earned an 89.60 at these Championships in 2017, finishing 3rd. Todd Straka, who took 5th in Age-Grading here in 2017 at 88.36%, will also be in contention. Ken Youngers had an off day in Atlanta at the 5K. If he runs as he did in Dedham, he could also be a threat; he scored 92.02%.
Nat Larson     Mark Andrews     Doug Goodhue
Nat Larson white singlet pacing just off of Christian Cushing-Murray's shoulder on his way to another M55 win and the Age Grade Win at the 2018 USATF Cross Country Championships in Tallahassee  [Photo by Michael Scott]


Age Division Championships 
M40 Chuck Schneekloth will try to outkick Philip Potvin, Ben Van Male, and Mark Walchinsky. Based on the information indicated in the Overall section above, Schneekloth should claim this divisional Championship on his way to the Overall podium. Walchinsky and Van Male look close. I will opt for Walchinsky as his most recent outing, the 4:45.8 on the track, is faster than Van Male's two track outings. As Potvin has nothing on the books since last August, I am guessing he is not as sharp as last year. That could easily be wrong.
Chuck Schneekloth     Mark Walchinsky     Ben Van Male
Chuck Novak makes his move to pull away from Chuck Schneekloth, Sam Teigen, and Tim Rieth to claim the overall Silver Medal at the 2018 USATF Masters (Road) Mile Championships Hosted by the Crim Foundation's Michigan Mile [Photo by Melissa Gacek]

W40  Based on her recent 5:23, Jennifer St. Jean, who is picked for the Overall podium, is the favorite, despite her stress fracture in May. Jill Braley should be the best of the rest even though her 19:22 5K last week in Atlanta was far off her 18:12 5K in June. If that was just a bad day, she could even challenge St. Jean for the win. Hiroko Guarneri showed last week that she could outpace Vanessa Lordi in a 5K. If that carries over to a 1 mile run, Guarneri should take 3rd. Melissa Gacek would have been in the hunt for the win here but family responsibilities got in the way.
Jennifer St. Jean     Jill Braley     Hiroko Guarneri
Jennifer St. Jean strides to the finish line, capturing the Overall Bronze Medal at the 2018 USATF Masters10 Km Championships Hosted by the James Joyce Ramble [Photo by Michael Scott]

M45 Mark Andrews is the favorite to take this division crown on his way to the Overall podium. His chief challenge should come from Atlanta teammates, Brent Fields and Brian Sydow who ran 16:28 and 16:25 last week in Atlanta. Michael Madsen, who ran a 16:20.0 5000 meter on the track in 2018, could also figure into the podium scramble.
Mark Andrews     Brian Sydow     Brent Fields
Mark Andrews holds off Peter Hammer for the Overall Gold Medal at the 2016 USATF Masters10 Km Championships Hosted by the James Joyce Ramble

W45 Sonja Friend-Uhl, favored for the Overall win, should take the Division title on the way. Cristina Burbach has two strong road miles to her credit, a 5:37.1 at the Loudoun Street Mile and a 5:35.0 at the Liberty Mile in Pittsburgh. That should be enough to give her 2nd place. Erin Larusso who ran 5:56 here last year was 11 seconds behind Burbach at the Liberty Mile.
Sonja Friend-Uhl     Cristina Burbach     Erin Larusso
Sonja Friend-Uhl with another Overall Podium Finish at the 2018 USATF Cross Country Championships in Tallahassee [Photo by Michael Scott]

M50 Todd Straka, who should be in the hunt for an Overall podium finish, should take this Division title. In 2017, Straka came in 9 seconds ahead of Mike Nier. Again this year, Nier has a 4:57.8 Indoor Mile to his credit. Tim Van Orden ran a 28:11 at the challenging Bridge of Flowers 8K, and a 16:00 at the very fast Westfield 5K. Even given that it is fast, a 16:00 is nothing to sneeze at!  Kent Lemme would, ordinarily, be in the thick of things up front. He ran some low 17 minute 5K's earlier in the year, and a 16:31 at Westfield, but then had a 17:56 in Atlanta last week. Was that a one-off bad day? If so, Lemme will be right there with Straka, Van Orden, and Nier. Others who will be pushing the pace include Michael Slinsky who ran 17:37 last week in Atlanta and Scott Ursum who has run a couple of 5K's right around 17:30 and the Brian Diemer 5K in 17:08.
Todd Straka     Tim Van Orden    Scott Ursum
Todd Straka with 600 meters to go on his way to 4th place Overall at the 2017 USATF Masters (Road) Mile Championships Hosted by the Crim Foundation's Michigan Mile [Photo by Melissa Gacek]

W50 Fiona Bayly is the favorite. Her 18:21 in Atlanta last week, combined with her 5:20 last year at the fast 5th Avenue Mile suggest a time around 5:35 is within reach. She will need that as Lisa Veneziano, who is not nearly as fast as Bayly at longer races, seems to love the Road Mile; she ran 5:39 here last year. Last year Amy Fakterowitz, Laura DeLea, and Kimberly Anderson battled for the podium, finishing 2nd, 3rd and 4th in 5:53, 5:59, and 6:03. All three are back and primed for another speed contest. Fakterowitz has a 5:55 in her pocket already from the Seneca St. Mile; DeLea scored a 5:59 for the Midland Mile. 
Fiona Bayly     Lisa Veneziano     Amy Fakterowitz
Fiona Bayly rounds the final turn on her way to an Age Division Win and the Age-Grading National Championship at the 2018 USATF Masters5 Km Championships Hosted by the Atlanta Track Club's Atlanta's Finest 5K [Photo by Michael Scott]

M55 Nat Larson has ruled this division since entering it a couple of years ago. I thought it could change last week when Larson was coming in after a few months with no race results posted in Athlinks. Even though his 16:54 was slow by his recent standards, he still had the Division win by a wide margin. Two years ago, when he was running much faster 5K's, he ran 4:49 here. If he runs in the mid-4:50's in Flint, he will be pressed, but should emerge on top once again. Alan Wells ran 4:58 here last year. His Athlinks profile is private; I have no recent results to go by. Another who could push Larson is Mark Zamek who was only 11 seconds behind him in Atlanta last week. Zamek ran 4:57.9 in the Midland Mile the day after Atlanta. Alan Evans and John Borthwick should also be in the mix. Evans refers longer races but his 35:51 in the 10K Championships in Dedham suggest a 5:00 mile is not out of reach. Borthwick ran 4:58 in the Grand Blue Mile associated with the Drake Relays in April. I find nothing since then so I give the edge to Zamek who is race-tested.
Nat Larson     Alan Wells     Mark Zamek 
Nat Larson closing hard at the finish to take the Age Grade Championship at the 2017 USATF Masters (Road) Mile Championships Hosted by the Crim Foundation's Michigan Mile [Photo by Carter Sherline, Frog Prince Studios]
W55 Last year Doreen McCoubrie took the honors in the division over her teammate, Marisa Sutera Strange, 5:34 to 5:39. I 2016, when McCoubrie did not run, Strange took the win in 5:27. Last year at this time, Strange was off her best. A 5:27 seems to be out of her reach at present, given her 18:38 5K in Atlanta, but she may be able to give McCoubrie more of a challenge this year. McCoubrie is on her game again this year as she showed by winning the Division at the Saucony Mile in Pottstown PA in 5:38. Michelle 'Shelly' Allen ran 5:36.4 at the Big Chief 1 Mile Championships in June and a couple of weeks ago ran a 6:12 Mile as part of a 5K-1 Mile double. Lorraine Jasper ran 5:49.4 at the Hartshorn Indoor Mile in January and ran 5:47 at the Saucony Mile.
Doreen McCoubrie     Marisa Sutera Strange     Lorraine Jasper
Doreen McCoubrie closing out her W55 Division Win at the 2018 USATF Masters (Road) Mile Championships Hosted by the Crim Foundation's Michigan Mile [Photo by Carter Sherline, Frog Prince Studios]

M60 Ken Youngers is a slight favorite in this division. He ran 5:20 last year and I would expect him to run faster this year based on his races earlier this year. The one conundrum is that Youngers had an off day in Atlanta last week. That may well be a one-off. If so, I look for him to be closer to 5:10 than 5:20, and that should be enough to take the division crown. David Westenberg who is not as fast at the longer races, focuses more on the track middle distances. He ran 2:24.5 and 4:56.1 in the 800- and 1500-meter races at the USATF-NE outdoor Championships. The 4:56 is considered roughly equivalent to a 5:19 mile. He ran faster than that at the Newburyport High Street Mile, described as a flat, fast, straight-line course, clocking 5:10. Jeffery Dundas finished 14 seconds behind Youngers in Atlanta and could well break 5:20 if he has a good day. Michael Young focuses on longer runs but can cook a mile as well, running 5:33 here last year (after running a 5:35 at the Dart for Art Mile). This year he ran 5:37 at the Dart for Art so is prepped to run mid 5:30's.
Ken Youngers     David Westenberger     Jeffery Dundas
Ken Youngers kicking home to take the M60 Division Crown at the  2018 USATF Masters10 Km Championships Hosted by the James Joyce Ramble [Photo by Michael Scott]

W60 Patrice Combs has not competed here before but typically tops the division at other distances. Jennifer Teppo was able to take the honors at the 10K Championship in Dedham, but
Combs has wins this year at the 8K in 34:29 and the 5K in 21:22. Checking Athlinks back through 2011, I find no races for Combs shorter than a 5K and many longer. It will be interesting to see what Combs does in a Mile Run. Were Nancy Simmons not entered, Combs would be the favorite. Simmons has a recent 6:02 Mile to her credit along with a 20:13 and 20:57 5K. Simmons appears to be too fast for Combs, but that's why we run races. It will be fun to watch. Simmons's teammate, Ruby Ghadially, should close out the podium. She ran a 22:40 5K in May and a 6:16 Mile in June. Mireille Silva, who ran 23:04 last week in the 5K Championships won't give up without a battle.
Nancy Simmons     Patrice Combs     Ruby Ghadially
Patrice Combs rounds the final bend to claim the W60 Title at the 2018 USATF Masters5 Km Championships Hosted by the James Joyce Ramble [Photo by Michael Scott]

M65 Joseph Reda and Reno Stirrat renew their new rivalry. Stirrat has run the Masters circuit every year, the mainstay of his Shore Athletic Club team. Reda ran a few races 5 years ago and appears committed to the circuit this year, his first, like Stirrat, as a 65 year old. Stirrat had the faster time by a half minute at the 8K Championship but Reda reversed that result at the 10K Championships with the same margin. At last week's 5K, they met again; Stirrat set the pace but Reda raced strategically, timing his move perfectly to shoot past Stirrat just before the finish line and capture the title, both with a gun time of 19:14. Stirrat may have the edge at this shorter distance; he ran 5:46.5 at the Midland Mile. Bob Deak is fast, but will have a hard time keeping up with Reda and Stirrat. He ran 5:29 at the Macklind Mile and clocked 19:28 at the 5K Championship last week. Like many other Road Miles, Macklind takes the 5th Avenue Mile approach-straight shot, downhill overall, so Deak is unlikely to match that time in Flint. Still, tht time suggests neither Reda nor Stirrat should take him for granted; a sub 5:50 is likely and a sub-5:45 certainly possible. Kirk Larson would have battled Bob Deak for 3rd; Larson ran 5:55 here last year. He had a freak non-running accident two days before the 5K race in Atlanta; that will sideline him for a couple of weeks, but luckily no permanent damage. Expect to see him next at either San Diego or Tulsa. 
Reno Stirrat     Joseph Reda     Bob Deak
Reno Stirrat holds off a younger B.A.A. Rival at the 2018 USATF Masters10 Km Championships Hosted by the Atlanta Track Club's Atlanta's Finest 5K [Photo by Michael Scott]

W65 Jill Miller-Robinett returns to the circuit for the first time in over a year. She is the favorite, and not only because she knows the ropes. She ran a 23:13 at Carlsbad and a month later ran a 23:07. She finished 2nd here in 2017 (reverse course) in 6:41. If the Age Grade equivalency approach has merit, Miller-Robinett won't be able to match that kind of time this year, but she can run fast enough for the win. Hannah Phillips has a 27:50 and a 28:08 5K to her credit recently. The equivalent Mile time of 8:40 or so shold be good enough for 2nd. Victoria Salvador, who runs her 5K's in the 32+ minute range should claim the final podium spot.
Jill Miller-Robinett     Hannah Phillips     Victoria Salvador
Jill Miller-Robinett conquering the elements at the 2018 USATF Club Cross Country Championships in Lexington KY  [Photo by Michael Scott]

M70 Terry McCluskey took the win in Atlanta in 20:48; that's age-grade equivalent to a 6:02 and should be fast enough to take the division. Last year Lloyd Hansen won this race in 6:03. Unfortunately Hansen's sciatica has come back, along with a strained hamstring. A gutsy runner, Hansen ran for the team at Atlanta. He will need a break now to recover. Atlanta teammates, Jerry Learned and Dave Glass chased McCluskey to the finish in 21:38 and 21:40, and they will likely battle for 2nd and 3rd again. In Atlanta Hansen was able to edge Doc Rappole for 4th, 22:57 to 23:02. I, Paul Carlin, am returning to the circuit again after missing the 10K and 5K Championships because of conflicts. In the interim I was able to clock a 22:34 and a 23:17 5K; neither course was as tough as the Atlanta 5K course, however. So I will have my work cut out for me to stay with Rappole.
Terry McCluskey     Jerry Learned     Dave Glass
 Terry 'Wild Man' Mccluskey cresting a hill on the way to his M70 Win at the 2018 USATF Club Cross Country Championships in Spokane WA [Photo by Michael Scott]

W70 There is no  stronger division favorite than Jeannie Rice. The W70 American Record holder at the 1 Mile in 6:37, the Half Marathon in 1:38:42 and the Marathon in 3:27:50, it would be astounding if anyone else from the Division kept up with her. Susan Hartman who ran the AJC Peachtree Road Race (10K) in 1:05:35, hitting a 10:35 per mile pace, should take 2nd with plenty to spare. Carol Rhodes has a recent 48:40 4-miler to her credit along with a 35:51 5K in January. She should claim 3rd ahead of her teammate, Judy Melton.
Jeannie Rice     Susan Hartman     Carol Rhodes
Jeannie Rice enjoying her Age Grade Gold Medal at the Awards Ceremony at the  2018 USATF Masters (Road) Mile Championships Hosted by the Crim Foundation's Michigan Mile [Photo by Carter Sherline, Frog Prince Studios]

M75 Hall-of-Famer, Doug Goodhue, should have little trouble picking up another National Championship this week. He won the Division 5K last week in Atlanta in 21:24 with almost two minutes to spare. It should be closer this week as Jan Frisby continues his return from injury, albeit with a sometimes troublesome heel still. He tweaked it about 5 days before the 5K and took it easy over the first mile or so. That he wound up running 23:15 to take 2nd suggests the heel wasn't too troublesome during the race. He may be able to go out a little more aggressively in this race. Still, Goodhue could crack 6:15 and Frisby is unlikely to break 6:30 even if it is a really good day. David Cohen is running for his team, just a week after running in the Ultravasan 90 Km run in Sweden. He was the oldest finisher by far of that race, and was the subject of several interviews. His job this week is to finish one mile rather than 56, and if he does, he will also wind up on the podium with a Bronze Medal.
Doug Goodhue     Jan Frisby     David Cohen
Doug Goodhue capturing the M75 Title and the M60 and up Age-Grading title at the 2018 USATF Masters 5 Km  Championships in Buffalo, NY [Photo by Andy Martin]

W75 Catherine Radle  ran 10:15 here last year; this year she is unopposed.
Catherine Radle

M80 No Entries

W80 Tami Graf won here unopposed last year in 11:31 (11:29 Net.) That 11:29 time is now the W80 American Record. Graf also won this year's Masters 10K Championships in 1:22:13 and the 8K Championships in 1:04:40. Her most recent effort is a 39:42 5K in early August. Now that Madeline Bost has aged up to the W80 division, Graf will have a real challenge. Bost's most recent effort is a 43:06 5K but earlier in the spring she ran 5K's in 37:19, 38:10, and 39:32 on successive weekends. 
Tami Graf     Madeline Bost
Tami Graf concentrates as she finishes off her American Record setting W80 win 2018 USATF Masters (Road) Mile Championships Hosted by the Crim Foundation's Michigan Mile [Photo by Carter Sherline, Frog Prince Studios]

M85 In 2016 Jon Desenberg took the M80 Division title unopposed. This year he will have that honor in M85. That will match up nicely with the 5K title he captured at the Senior Games in June in New Mexico in 36:12.
Jon Desenberg

W85 No Entries

M90 Nathan Finestone and Richard Soller will renew their rivalry at a shorter distance. Soller took the 8K title in March in Finestone's absence and Finestone returned the favor at the 10K. They finally met at the 5K in Atlanta, where Finestone took the title with minutes to spare. That should be the story here, too, except now they are probably good pals and will enjoy the camaraderie.
Nathan Finestone     Richard Soller

Team Championships
All race prognostication is difficult. It is much trickier figuring out team races as there are so many more variables and some runners expected to contribute may not be able to run at all or may show up for the team and run slower than their norm. Below are my educated guesses at likely outcomes.
M40+ The Atlantic Track Club is favored to edge the Garden State Track Club. M50+ The Greater Springfield Harriers are slight favorites, with Atlanta, the Genesee Valley Harriers (GVH), and the Playmakers Elite New Balance in a podium ‘dogfight’ right behind them. M60+ Atlanta is the favorite, with the Ann Arbor Track Club and the Shore Athletic Club tightly matched for 2nd and 3rd. M70+ The Ann Arbor Track Club looks to take its second Championship in a row, with Atlanta and GVH close behind, attempting to supplant them.

WOMEN 
W40+ The Atlanta Track Club is unopposed; they take the win as their third runner crosses the finish line.
Atlanta Track Club
W50+ The Athena Track Club is favored. Using best guess at individual mile times, the top three for Athena, Doreen McCoubrie, Marisa Sutera Strange, and Lorraine Jasper are all capable of breaking 6:00. Atlanta has some fine runners; Mary Shah could break 6:00 and Kris Huff can do it on a good day, even though she ran 6:52 here last year. That would be a stretch for Maureen Martin. 
Athena Track Club     Atlanta Track Club
W60+ The Impala Racing Team is favored over the Atlanta Track Club for this one, but not by much. I had a likely 5K time for each team and just figured how the two teams would do at a 5K and applied that to the mile. No doubt this is a close one. If everyone runs as they have been running recently, Impala has Nancy Simmons, Ruby Ghaddally, & Jill Miller-Robinett accumulating up to about 66:25 for 3x5K and Atlanta with Patrice Combs, Mireille Silva, & Margaret Taylor (or Cindy Williams) accumulating to 67:05. A projected 40 second difference probably means it is too close to call but I will stick with the Impala-Atlanta order.
Impala Racing     Atlanta Track Club
W70+ The Atlanta Track Club is unopposed; they take the win as their third runner crosses the finish line.
Atlanta Track Club

MEN 
[For the Men I used the 5K approach used above for W60+]
M40+ I have Atlanta with Brian Sydow, Brent Fields and Mark Weiss adding up to about 50:40. The Garden State Track Club  is not far off. When I add up likely times for Chuck Schneekloth, Mark Zamek, and Dave Ferrugia, I get 51:25. I have GVH with Mark Andrews, Christopher Hernandez, and Stephen Ruchlin at 53:12. First and 2nd is again too close to call, but I will stick with the analysis. 
Atlanta Track Club     Garden State Track Club     Genesee Valley Harriers
M50+ This division race will be a 'Barn Burner'! The Greater Springfield Harriers have ruled this division for the last couple of years; it is hard to go against them even when they are 'banged up.' Both Nat Larson and Kent Lemme are off their best. But with Alejandro Heuck's help, they may have just enough firepower to pull out another win as they did at the 5K last week. I have them at about 53:10. But I have both GVH with Mike Nier, Alan Evans, & Dale Flanders and the Playmakers Elite New Balance with Scott Ursum, Dave Bussard (on the comeback trail), & Tim Lambrecht at 53:40. The 4th team in the race, Atlanta Track Club with Alan Wells, Michael Strickland, and Jeff Haertel at 54:15. With a projected spread of about a minute on a 3x5K calculation, that is something like a 20 second spread at a mile. It is anyone's for the taking.
Greater Springfield Harriers     Genesee Valley Harriers     Playmakers Elite
M60+ Atlanta appears to have too much up front speed for the other teams to handle. The Ann Arbor Track Club, with Michael Young, Hugh Kuchta & Eduardo Matsuo gets a 59:45. I have thenm with Ken Youngers, Jeffery Dundas & Mike Anderson around 55:35. Shore AC with Reno Stirrat, Kevin Dollard, & Scott Linnell are accumulated to about 60:00. I have the Kansas City Smoke with Stan McCormack, John Blaser & Randy McDermott at 62:22. If everyone runs exactly according to these projections, which is highly unlikely, it comes out as below. Atlanta should take the win with no problem although the Grand Prix pressure is off. Apparently as Boulder did not send a team, ATC has clinched the Team GP 1st place this year. It will be a dogfight between Ann Arbor and Shore, with the KC Smoke right there to hop onto the podium if either of those two run into difficulty.
Atlanta Track Club     Ann Arbor Track Club     Shore AC
M70+ Ann Arbor took the title last wek at the 5K with Terry McClsky, Doug Goodhue & an injured Lloyd Hansen. Hansen is out on rehab this week, but I (Paul Carlin) am back in. With recent 5K's in the 22:40 to 23:17, I should be not too far off an injured Hansen performance. That should be enough. I have them at around 65:30. I have Atlanta with Jerry Learned, Dave Glass & Sam Benedict at about 69:30 and GVH with Doc Rappole, Tony Gingello, & Jim Glinsky around 71:42.
Ann Arbor Track Club     Atlanta Track Club     Genesee Valley Harriers

Best of luck to my fellow runners!
Many of you will prove me wrong, and I will be delighted if you outperform your 'prediction'! [Maybe not quite as delighted if you are in my division though, lol.]

No comments:

Post a Comment