Races for Overall Championships at the USATF Masters 12 km Championships in Highlands NJ

 September 12 2021. In the first preview, posted on September 11, I considered the possibilities for athletes to set American Records at the upcoming Masters 12 km Championships. Now let's look at the main contenders for Overall National Champion.

Note: In this article I use the concept of age grade equivalency. If a 40 year old man runs a 33:00 10K, that is an age grade score of 83.03; the 12 km time that generates the same age grade score is 40:00. So a 33:00 10K for a 40 year old guy is age grade equivalent or, in this article, just 'equivalent' to a 40:00 12K.

OVERALL

WOMEN  

From past performance, the main contenders look to be: Fiona Bayly Urban Athletics, Roberta Groner Shore AC, Dawn Grunagle Unattached, and Maggie Shearer Cal Coast TC.  

Bayly is the reigning Masters Overall 15 km Champion, having won the title in the 2017, 2018 and 2019 editions. Her time on the challenging course in Tulsa is not fully indicative of her strength. Still, her 57:58 in the 2019 Championships is age grade equivalent to a 45:48 12 km. 

 

Fiona Bayly heading for the final turn and a 4th place finish in 18:21 at the 2019 USATF Masters 5 km National Championships in Atlanta Photo by Michael Scott

Two years removed from that performance and concentrating more on Marathons this year, her chances of grabbing this overall title are diminished. She ran a 3:11:37 marathon this past March in Louisiana and followed that with a 3:08:20 in upstate NY in May. Neither suggests she is ready this year to run close to 46 minutes. The faster of those two is equivalent to a 50:40. Bayly also has an early August 19:20 in the Harlem 5K run though, equivalent to a 47:56. Bayly is getting faster! And Bayly rarely misses the podium; with the exception of Groner, everyone needs to be on the lookout for Bayly!

Groner has both past and recent performances to back up writing her in as the favorite for the Overall win. Groner became a running celebrity when she was the top American performer in the Marathon at the 2019 World Championships in Doha. Given the horrific conditions for racing, her time in that race is not indicative of her ability, but her earlier 2:29:06 at Rotterdam and 2:30:12 at the TCS NYC Marathon in 2019 are. The Rotterdam time is equivalent to a 40:34 12 km, which would be unbeatable! Those performances suggests she should dominate this 12 km race. Like other runners, however, she had to navigate the Pandemic. She apparently did a good job; she demonstrated her current fitness by clocking a 51:56 15K for a top twenty finish in the Open 15K National Championships at the Gate River Run in March. 

 

Roberta Groner celebrating her 6th place Marathon finish overall at the 2019 World Championships in Doha, the top American Photo by Alexander Hassenstine/Getty Images

 

That equates to a 41:05! The one ray of hope for her rivals is that her most recent performance, a 1:18:24 at the Presque Isle Half Marathon, equates to a 43:56. Which version of Groner will show up at the Sandy Hook 12 km course? It may not matter; either way it will be tough for her rivals to deny her the top spot.

In March 2019, Grunnagle ran a 34:24 10K to take the Women's 40-44 title at the World Championships in Poland; she was the first woman 40 and over to finish. That time is age grade equivalent to a 41:37 12K! She finished 2nd to Kate Landau among American Masters women at the 2019 Utica Boilermaker in 55:09, equivalent to a 43:39 12K. She ran 2:33:14 in the Berlin Marathon, equivalent to a 41:42 12K. 

Dawn Grunnagle Team USATF on the way to a 10K victory at the 2019 World Championships in Torun, Poland Photo by Roger Sayre

 

If Grunnagle were at her best, she would push Groner for the top spot. The lack of any races in 2021 suggests she is at least not race tested, so it may be a bit much to expect her to contend for the top spot. A podium finish is possible though.

Shearer finished 3rd overall in the Masters 6 km race at the 2018 USATF Club XC Championships in Spokane, and finished 2nd at 2018 Cross Country Nationals in Tallahassee. 

Maggie Shearer #248 battles with Sonja Friend-Uhl #95 and Jennifer Bayliss #10 for the win at the 2018 USATF Cross Country Championships in Tallahassee FL Photo by Michael Scott

 

Shearer ran 56:07 at Gate River, equivalent to a 44:23 12K. A 2:47:23 Marathon at Houston in January 2020 and a 17:47 in the Newport-Mesa Spirit Run 5K in March 2020 provides the most recent evidence of race fitness. The 5K equates to a 43:57 and the marathon, arguably more relevant for a 12k, to a 45:32. As with Grunnagle, the lack of any recent reported performances makes it impossible to assess current fitness. It may be that Grunnagle and Shearer are both pointing to a race down the road and using this as a 'rust-buster' as Brian Pilcher used the 20K in New Haven as his rust-buster reported in my September 11 post. We shall see.

Both Grunnagle and Shearer have faster Marathon times and faster 12K equivalencies, but those are 18 months to two years ago. My guess is that they will show up prepared to race for the podium. Should any of those 4 falter, there are plenty of others who could move up, including Karen dos Santos Shore AC, Karen Dunn Greater Philadelphia TC, Sara Girotto Philadelphia Masters, Gwendolen Twist The Janes Elite Racing, and Heather Webster Genesee Valley Harriers.

Roberta Groner            Fiona Bayly            Maggie Shearer

 

Men

The main contenders include David Angell Roanoke Elite,  Brock Butler Greater Philadelphia TC and his teammate, Chris Naimoli, along with Maine’s Judson Cake Dirigo RC., Brian Sydow Atlanta Track Club and Nicholas Thompson Brooklyn TC. Someone else could surprise, but those appear to be the strongest runners based on past performance.

Angell has already won National Championships at distances shorter and longer than 10 km. With each added year past 40, the overall wins become a little more challenging. Is it time we refer to Angell as a wily veteran of Masters Championships? In any case, Angell notched wins in 2019 at the 8K Championships in Virginia Beach 25:40 and the 5K Championships in Atlanta 15:41.  He claimed the 2018 10K Championships at Dedham MA 32:33. 

 

David Angell breaks the tape, winning the 2018 USATF Masters 10 km Championship Overall in 32:33 Photo by Michael Scott

When Angell does not win outright, he is almost always on the podium. What is the evidence fo current fitness? He ran 33:06 at Peachtree and 15:43 at the Fab 5K. The 33:06 equates to a 40:07 12K. The Peachtree course is known for its hills; it is Atlanta after all. Apparently the heat and humidity were not as bad as in some years, with temps in the low 70's and humidity in the upper 60's. The 5K, though less relevant for a 12K, equates to a 38:37!. Those two results taken together suggest sa sub-40 on the flat and fast course at Highlands is a real possibility for Angell, and a sub-39 not out of the question if everything goes his way..

Butler has not competed at Masters National Championships apart from Cross Country. At the 2019 Club Cross Championships at Lehigh, Butler clocked 34:49. Cross Country time and position do not always signal road results because the terrain and footing affects runners differently. Suffice to say that among runners entered in this road Championship, Butler trailed Angell by 6 seconds, who trailed Naimoli by 5 seconds. 

Brock Butler #1496 takes a muddy turn at the 2019 USATF Club Cross Country Championships at Lehigh University Photo by Michael Scott

 

That is close enough to suggest we will be looking at a tight race on Sunday! Still, that was almost 2 years ago. What is Butler’s current fitness? He has a 'poetic' 9 miler 49:49 from November 2020, equivalent to a 40:52, and a 15:57 5K Butterfly Run in March, equivalent to a 39:12.  Angell seems a bit closer to peak fitness fitness.

As well as having a slight edge from the 2019 Club XC Championships, Naimoli also notched a win over Angell at the 2019 Masters 15K National Championships in Tulsa. He crushed that hilly course with a 48:37, finishing over a minute ahead of Angell. 

Chris Naimoli finishes off his Maine Ironman 70.3 in style with a fast 10K! Photo posted on FB by Chris Naimoli

 

Naimoli has been training for triathlons recently so that focus may detract from pure running fitness. He devotes a lot of time to swimming and biking. If the focus is triathlons, you have to push on the bike and swimming  so that suggests the triathlete cannot develop running to the same extent. The advantage such athletes have over the pure runner should be less likelihood of injury due to overuse of specific muscle groups. Naimoli's big recent results were the Age Group Nationals Triathlon in Milwaukee. As reported by Naimoli, he achieved a 26th in his age division in Swimming 1500M-24:39, a 2nd in the bike 24.33 miles-56:14, and 1st in the 10K run 34:31. In Maine at the Ironman 70.3, he swam 1.2 miles, biked 54 miles with 2,000' elevation change, and finished off with a 1:15:12 Half Marathon. It is hard to know what a 34:31 10K or a 1:15:12 HM on the third leg of a triathlon equates to in a pure road race. But it is clear Naimoli cannot be far off the fitness of Angell and Butler.

Cake has not participated in USATF Masters National Championships. Cake ran the Mid Winter 10 Miler in February 2020 57:27, the Veteran’s 4 Miler in November 2020 22:51, followed by some trail races in the spring of 2021, and then two 5-Milers in July 28:05 and August 28:11. The faster of those two is equivalent to a 42:29. Cake seems just a bit slower than Angell, Butler and Naimoli but he will be right there if any of those three have an off day. 

Judson Cake at the Longfellow Frostbite 2.5K Road Race Photo posted by mainerunningphotos.com

 

Sydow is relatively new to the USATF Masters circuit but he claimed the 2019 M45 Masters Grand Prix title! That year he won the 8K and 15K M45 Championships and had four 2nd place finishes. His 26:26 at the 8K equates to a 40:13, and his 52:19 at the Tulsa Run 15K to a 41:22. The 8K race was flat and fast while the 15K course can be described as hilly. 

Brian Sydow heads into the final turn before the sprint to the finish line with a narrow lead on his rivals at the 2019 USATF Masters 10 km Championships Photo by Michael Scott

 

But both are in the rearview mirror. What does Sydow have recently? The most recent race recorded appears to be his 16:01 in the Hearts and Soles 5K from February 2020; that equates to a 39:27. But it was 20 months ago. With nothing recent on the books, it is hard to say if he is close to that level of fitness. He appears to be putting in some solid workout days running, alternating with Stationary Bike days Zwift. Without a race result, though, it is hard to know exactly whee his fitness is.

Thompson is also untested in National Masters Championships racing. He trailed Cake in the faster of his two 5-Milers this summer, running 28:12 to Cake's 28:05. In February 2020 he ran 54:59 in the PPTC Cherry Tree 10 Miler, equivalent to a 40:15. In 2019, at age 45,  he ran 2:29:03 at the Bank of America Chicago Marathon, age grade equivalent to 39:26.  

Nicholas Thompson finishing his BOA Chicago Marathon in 2:29:03 Photo posted at runnersconnect.net

Thompson's strength at the longer distances may help him to a faster time in this 12 km race.

It looks to be a race between Angell, Butler and Naimoli for the win, with Cake, Sydow and Thompson a half notch down and ready to spring if any of those three have an off day. Others who could play a role in the fight for the podium include: Dickson Mercer Pacers Running/GRC New Balance, James Osborn, Jr. Manchester Running Company, and Matthew Wagoner Greater Philadelphia TC.

Chris Naimoli            David Angell          Brock Butler 

 

Records At the USATF Masters 12 km Championships? A Sure Thing! Maybe... [2021 USATF Masters 12 km Championships-Preview 1]

September 11 2021  The last USATF Masters LDR Championship Road Race was on October 26 2019; the first Championship since Covid disrupted road racing is on the 19th of September at Sandy Hook National Park near Highlands NJ. That is a long time between Championships and the pent up demand has been palpable. Athletes have been signing up at an incredible rate. As of today, September 11 2021, there were 296 entrants, surpassing the 283 registered for the 2019 USATF Masters 10 km Championships in Dedham! That represents the largest field in a Masters LDR Road Race Championship, at least in known history. So that guarantees at least one record will be set!

Not only is the field large, it is one of the strongest and deepest. The desire to race against the best in the country on a course that is flat, fast and close to the water has drawn a terrific amount of interest. Mid-September also seemed favorable-not too hot and not too cold. The two big worries are humidity and wind off the ocean. And there is always the chance of a really bad storm. The Greater New York area got hit by two serious storms within the last few weeks. As of now the weather forecast looks delightful for beach-goers which means mostly sunny skies, a little warmer than ideal for runners, low to mid-70's, and definitely more humid than desirable, 80% at the start, dropping to 75% by the finish. The winds are forecast to be 10-11 mph out of the NNW. A slight improvement in those characteristics on the day is possible and would mean even faster times!

With that forecast in mind, consider the possibility of record-setting performances on the same course that hosted the By Hook Or By Crook 12 km race for the USATF-New Jersey Grand Prix. Up until this past Monday, I would have said that New Jersey's Nora Cary 66, who is not as well-known outside her home region as some, would have the best shot at taking down an American Masters 12 km Record. The current 65-69 12 km record is held by Edie Stevenson at 53:46. Cary ran 52:29 on this course in 2019. That is two years ago, but her recent outings have been high quality as well. She has a 43:06 10K and a 1:08:21 15K to her credit this year. 

Nora Cary strides to the Finish Line and a 43:40 10 km Podium Finish at the 2019 USATF Masters National 10 km Championships in Dedham MA Photo by Michael Scott

 

Those are age-grade equivalent to 52:19 and 53:51. If the winds stay relatively calm and Cary can deal with the humidity a record seems likely. 

This past Labor Day, Brian Pilcher 65, the 2013 Masters Athlete of the Year and holder of five American Records at the time, announced his return to racing at the Faxon Law 20 km in New Haven. After setting five M60 Records in 2016, Pilcher missed almost two years. He returned in March 2018 for a try at the 8 km record but missed it. Later that month he was out of action again. Pilcher described the New Haven race on Labor Day as a 'nice rust-buster.' It was nice enough to best the current M65 20 km American record of another Masters Hall of Famer, Doug Goodhue, by almost two minutes. He clocked 1:18:24! 

Brian Pilcher on his way to the Masters American 5 km Record for Men 65-69 Photo by Gavin Liddell

 

In terms of what we might anticipate, that time is age-grade equivalent to a 45:41 12 km. The current record is held by Terry McCluskey at 46:58. A long overlooked mark of John Keston's from Lilac Bloomsday in the 1990's is now listed as pending; it is 46:30. Either way, Pilcher looks to have a good shot. Pilcher indicated that he expects a strong challenge from Ken Youngers, who clocked a 36:47 at the AJC Peachtree Road Race on the 4th of July. 

 

Ken Youngers finishing off his 36:19 to take the 2019 M60 10 km National Championship at Dedham MA Photo by Michael Scott

That course is much hillier than either the New Haven or the Sandy Hook course. His 36:47 is age-grade equivalent to a 44:39! Although nothing is ever guaranteed, it seems likely that either Pilcher or Youngers will go home with a new American Record.

Surprisingly it seems that the 65-69 records both for Women and Men are most in danger. But many other records could fall. Jen Rhines holds the W40 record at 40:04, set in 2015. Roberta Groner 43, who was the top American finisher in the Marathon at the 2019 World Championships in Doha is entered in the 12 km Championship. Now 43, Groner ran a 51:56 15K at the Gate River Run. With its infamous Hart Bridge looming at the 7.5 mile mark, that course is not easy either.

Roberta Groner on her way to a Top Twenty Finish in the 2021 Women's National Open 15 km Championship at the Gate River Run

The 51:56 is equivalent to a 41:05. Groner definitely has a shot! Joan Samuelson set the W55 Record at 46:27 in 2014. The only runner who has exhibited recent fitness close to that mark did it on the track. Lisa Veneziano 56 won the W55 10,000 Meter title at the Masters Outdoor TF Championships in Ames with a time of 38:42. If that performance had been on the track it would have equated to a 46:54 12 km. Track times are usually a bit faster than road times so it would be a stretch to say Veneziano is likely to take down that record, but it will be interesting to see how close she can get. 

Lisa Veneziano left and Marisa Sutera Strange giving all they've got to secure the final Overall Podium spot at the 2019 USATF Masters Road Mile Championship in Flint Michigan Photo by Carter Sherline, Frog Prince Studios

 

There is certainly no shortage of competition! Suzanne LaBurt 58 and Doreen McCoubrie 59 should certainly push her for the win, even if they are, perhaps, not at peak fitness coming out of the Pandemic interruption. If Fiona Bayly 54 were focusing on mid-range LDR, like 12 km to 10 Mile, she might well have made a push for Shirley Matson's 50-54 record of 44:56. She indicated earlier this year that she would be concentrating her training and racing on the Marathon this year. No doubt the 12 km is a tuneup race for a fall Marathon. 

Fiona Bayly taking the overall Win at the 2018 USATF Masters 15 km National Championship in Tulsa OK Photo By Tom Gilbert

Perhaps next year, after she turns 55, Bayly will take aim for the 12 km record. Heide Moebius 82, a celebrated octogenarian will give the record attempt her best shot. June Machala set the W80 record of 1:13:14 9 years ago at Lilac Bloomsday. Moebius ran a 1:05:05 10K in early August. 

Heide Moebius on a training run Photo by Dan Marschka for

 

That is age grade equivalent to a 1:19:11. The 48:42 5-miler she ran on July 3rd is faster though, equivalent to a 1:15:18. If everything breaks her way on the day, a record effort is possible.

In addition to Pilcher and Youngers, Gene Dykes 73 and Roger Sayre 63 are the two likeliest men to threaten a 12 km record, even though it is a big task in the final two years of an age division. Dykes would be the M70 World Record holder in the Marathon had the 2018 Jacksonville Bank Marathon in Jacksonville FL been USATF sanctioned as well as certified. Dykes ran 2:54:23, faster than the record set by the legendary late Ed Whitlock. Because the race was not sanctioned by USATF, World Masters Athletics WMA could not recognize it as a record. But that shows you how fast he was. Earlier that year at the 10K Masters National Championship in Dedham, he set the M70 American Record of 39:02. In October he ran 2:55:17 in the Toronto Waterfront Marathon, just missing Whitlock’s record. In November 2018 he set the M70 Half Marathon American Record of 1:25:05. What a fabulous year! Dykes has had years since then that would be excellent by any other standards, but he has not yet shown the same comparative speed he had in 2018. At the Caumsett, Long Island course that has seen many records, Dykes set the 50 km American Record (pending ratification) earlier this year in 3:56:44. That is almost a minute per mile slower pace than his Marathon efforts. Perhaps he was only running as fast as needed for the win and the record.  Ultras and Trail Races are what Dykes seems to love most, but he prefers to get out to race as often as possible. 

Gene Dykes closing in on the finish and an M70 Win and Age Grade Podium at the 2018 USATF Masters Half Marathon Championship at the Dexter-Ann Arbor HM Photo Credit: Runphotos.com

His most recent effort was at the USATF Masters Outdoor Championships. He ran the 5000 meters Thursday evening and Saturday morning the 10,000 meter event. He won both handily, the 10,000 meters in 41:57, averaging 6:45 per mile. He can, no doubt, run faster than that. Known for his recovery powers, it is nonetheless possible that running a 5000-meter race 36 hours before his 10,000-meter effort slowed him down. If he is going to threaten Doug Goodhue’s 12 km record of 48:38 in New Jersey, he will have to average 6:30 per mile pace for a longer race. If conditions are favorable, Dykes definitely has a shot at it, but it is not a sure thing. Dykes just ran the Hood to Coast Relay. With his usual schedule, he could well have run another ultra between now and the 12 km Championship. Dykes is a master at fast recovery. 

Roger Sayre 63 got within 6 seconds of the M60 8 km American Record in 2018, and he is entered in the 12 km. It is a daunting task to break a record held by Tom McCormack. At 42:50, it requires a pace of 5:45 per mile. That is like running a 35:43 10K and keeping that same pace for another 2 km, a tall order at 60, much less 63. Sayre’s efforts in 2020 and early 2021 also reflect that he was on the comeback trail from an injury in late 2019. But by July he seemed to be all the way back. His 38:46 10K on July 24 in Colorado Springs, at 6,000 feet of elevation was a cannon shot! If we give him a 5% altitude conversion factor for Colorado Springs, the sea level equivalent would be 36:50. 

Roger Sayre sprinting to the Final Turn and an M60 Victory in 17:29 at the 2018 USATF Masters National 5 km Championships in Atlanta Photo By Michael Scott

 

That marks a return to excellent form as the adjusted time would be a 90.59% PLP (age grade) and equivalent to a 44:44 12 km. Even so, that is two minutes off the record. As with Veneziano, it will be interesting to see how close he can get! Nat Larson 59, the current M55 record holder in the 5 km at 15:54, would be a threat for the 55-59 American Record, established by Sean Wade earlier this year. In his last year in the division, and coming back from an injury, a record effort seems unlikely. It will be great to see him back racing again and to find out how close he is to his past form. 

There are still a few days to register and it could be one or two more with a decent shot at a record might sign up yet!