January 10, 2025. The Chapparal Ridge course at Lubbock Christian University is the site of the 2025 USATF Cross Country Championships this coming Saturday, January 11th. The course has hosted NCAA Division 2 Invitationals; this will be their first USATF national championship. If the weather forecast holds, it will be sunny and cold. When the Masters Women’s race goes off at 10:30 AM it will be in the upper 30’s. By the time the Men’s race goes off at 11:30, the temperatures are expected to rise to the lower 40’s. It may be in the 50’s for the Awards ceremony. The Texas panhandle received 1-2” of snow on Thursday. How will that affect the course? The races will also be complicated by winds in the teens, gusting to the 20’s. Situated at 3200 feet above sea level, runners who train at altitude will enjoy a modest advantage. NOTE: Although I mention times, it is perilous to compare cross country times too closely. Times achieved over the same distance on different courses will vary. Courses vary in terrain, elevation change and so on. Even the same course can be almost like two different courses on different days, depending on conditions. If it is soft and muddy one day and hard another, the times will be faster the second day. Rain or freezing temperatures can have a different effect on different surfaces, and terrain, as can snow or melting snow. You get the idea.
OVERALL CHAMPIONSHIPS
Women. This race features Renee Metivier, a frequent member of Team USA at World Athletics Cross Country championships during her Open career. As an Open runner, Metivier represented Team USA at 5 IAAF World Cross Country Championships and is a four-time national Open champion at distances from 3000M to the Marathon. As a Masters athlete, Metivier won the 2022 edition of these championships at Mission Bay in San Diego over 6Km in 21:50. She finished second in the 2024 edition at Richmond VA at 21:47. April Lund will challenge again this year. She finished third in Richmond a year ago, just 11 seconds behind Metivier. Lund won the 2023 edition of these championships, in 22:03, with over a half minute to spare. Those championships also served as the selection race for the inaugural WMA Cross Country Championships in Bathurst Australia. Lund claimed gold in her 40-44 division race, clocking 23:53 over a challenging Mt Panorama course with elevation changes, muddy pits, hay bales, and chicanes to weave through. Lund also proved herself last year on the roads, with a fine 16:58 win over a strong field at the Masters 5 Km championships in Atlanta. Those two will have to watch out for Alison Crocker. She seems to be getting better as the cross country season progresses. She went from 4th Overall at her Pacific Northwest Masters Championship to 7th Overall at Club Cross Nationals last month! Her time on that gusty day over a muddy course, was 23:42. If she takes one more step up, she will definitely be in the mix for the win. Jessica Hruska won the 2022 Masters 5 Km Championships [if no modifier is used a USATF championship in this article is a road championship] in Atlanta with an 18:15 and finished 2nd overall that year at the 5 km cross country championships in Boulder, at altitude, in 19:52. In December 2022 she finished fourth overall at Club Cross in San Francisco, with a 22:40 effort. But Hruska may not enjoy that same 2022 level of fitness; she finished 21st at Tacoma. And, in referring to Tacoma, I had best devote a line to Kristin Shaw who finished three seconds, and two places, ahead of Hruska last month. Metivier has to be the favorite over Lund, at least until Lund comes in ahead of her. But it should be a heck of a race! Most likely it will be Metivier-Lund going 1-2 in that order with Crocker claiming third. But Hruska and Shaw will be pushing them all the way!
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Alison Crocker April Lund Renee Metivier
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| Renee Metivier right and Carrie Dimoff left with April Lund red shorts a stride back on the first loop at the 2024 USATF Cross Country Championships in Richmond VA Photo Credit: Mike Scott |
Men. Joseph Gray, the two-time World Mountain Running champion, looks for another Masters Overall Championship. He ran away from the field last month in Tacoma, earning the victory over 10 Km in 33:20. That followed his 15:30 win at the 5 Km Cross Country Championships in Boulder in November, and his 30:44 win at the Masters 10 Km Championships. This race will be over 8 Km of high chapparal turf; Gray is a strong favorite. The athlete most likely to give Gray a challenge is Nicholas Kipruto who started well at Tacoma but finished 19th in 35:40. It is hard to know how the conditions affected Kipruto, but the footing is likely to be better in Lubbock. Kipruto ran 53:58 at the Army Ten Miler last October. Ayoub Touil, a newly minted Masters runner, will also be in the mix. This fall he ran 16:08 for a 5K and 32:14 for fourth overall and the Masters win at the Phoenix 10K. Sean Prinz has run well this past year; he clocked 57:44 at the Credit Union Cherry Blossom 10 Mile Run in April and 27:27 at the Ashenfelter 8K in November. Prinz will need to have things break his way to get on the podium. Gray seems to be a lock for the win. Kipruto's Army Ten Miler time is age grade equivalent to 32:42 for a 10K. That is a little slower than Touil's time in Phoenix. On the other hand, Kipruto has Tacoma under his belt. Touil apparently lacks a recent Cross Country race. I will use that to guess that Kipruto has a slight edge and suggests a final finishing order of Gray-Kipruto-Touil.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Joseph Gray Nicholas Kipruto Ayoub Touil
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| Joseph Gray leading most of the field in the men 40+ race at the 2024 USATF Club Cross Country Championships in Tacoma WA Photo Credit: Mike Scott |
Age Division Championships
Men 40-44 Gray, Kipruto and Aouil are all from this division, as is Prinz. If the order above holds for the Overall race, it holds for this division also. Gray-Kipruto-Aouil, with Prinz just off the podium.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Joseph Gray Nicholas Kipruto Ayoub Touil
45-49 David Angell was rock solid at Cross Country championships from 2017 through 2019, either on the overall odium or just off. Even with Club Cross, the toughest to podium on, Angell achieved a bronze medal overall finish at Spokane in December 2018. After Covid, Angell has had a more up and down record on the turf. A chronic niggling injury demanded attention; that interrupted training. Sometimes Angell was on; other times not. He, like everyone, grew older. Like others, once he graduated to the 45-49 division, Angell was more likely to compete for an Age Division than an Overall win. He has had success at Cross Nationals, however, finishing second and fourth in the 45-49 division at the 2023 and 2024 editions of Cross Nationals in Richmond. Angell clocked very fine, consistent 8 Km times-26:58 in '23 and 17:03 in '24. He has not been able to crack the top ten in the division at the last four Club Cross competitions. Angell and Trevor Pettingill have met at the Masters 5 Km Championships at Boca Raton in 2022. Pettingill edged Angell for the division silver medal in 16:52. Angell, seven seconds slower, earned the bronze. At 2024 Club Cross in Tallahassee and at Tacoma this past month, Pettingill again had the edge, finishing four division places ahead of Angell at Tallahassee and finishing 3rd M45 in Tacoma to Angell's 19th. Pettingill enters the favorite. But Angell is a battler. he has rarely, if ever, had two bad cross country races in a row. It does not look like anyone else can stay with those two. Quent Bearden and Sports Warrior teammates, Dewayne Carl and Anthony Fleg should contend for the bronze medal. Bearden appears to have the best speed of the three with a 17:37 at a Firecracker three miler, roughly equivalent to an 18:17 5K. Carl has a 3:20:54 Duke City marathon, at altitude, this year. Fleg counters with a 3:21:47 Duke City Marathon in 2023 and a 1:27:44 Duke City Half Marathon this past year. His 3:04:40 at the CIM this past December suggests how much faster they would run at sea level (and with an overall downhill Marathon). Bearden also has endurance credentials. He turned in a 7:19:51 at the JFK 50 Miler. The three are closely matched. One will, no doubt, break away. I can imagine that Carl and Fleg, as teammates, will stick together for at least the first half of the race. That could give them the advantage. I will go with Fleg for the bronze, on the basis of that 1:27+ half marathon at latitude, and let one of the others try to prove that pick wrong. That gives me Pettingill-Angell-Fleg.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
David Angell Anthong Fleg Trevor Pettingill
50-54 Chokri Dhaouadi, Robbie Genzel, and Anderson Norton look to be the top contenders. At the 2020 edition of these championships at Mission Bay in San Diego, Dhaouadi finished 2nd in the 45-49 division at 28:07. His next appearance at a national cross country championships was this past November in Boulder. Now in the 50-54 division Dhaouadi was equally successful, walking away with the division silver medal in 18:30. A member of the Sports Warriors, out of Albuquerque, Dhaouadi, is equally adept whether running at altitude or sea level. That should give him some advantage at 3200' of altitude. Genzel ripped off a 34:45 10K in April at the Masters Championships in Dedham, earning the 50-54 bronze medal. Genzel clocked 37:40 over the 10 Km course at Tallahassee Clubs in 2023, finishing 14th in 45-49. Anderson Norton of the Blacksburg Striders presumably trains at Blacksburg's 2000 feet or more so a step up to 3200' should require little adjustment. He posted a 1:21:38 at the Hokie HM in Blacksburg in September and clocked a 17:54 5K at the local Turkey Trot in November. He has been successful on the turf as well, running 28:28 over 8 Km of turf to finish 8th in 45-49 at 2023 Cross Nationals in Richmond. Last year he ran a little slower on a much colder, windier day, 29:06 to finish 5th in this division. Frederick Dolan deserves mention as well. He has run well on the roads recently, placing 5th at the Masters 5 Km Championships in Atlanta with a 17:55 effort. His 44:04 12 Km at Highlands NJ earned him the Masters 12 Km Championships 50-54 silver medal. Dolan finished 4th at the 2023 Masters 5 Km Championships in Boca Raton FL with an 18:24. He finished 45 seconds and one place behind Norton at the 2024 edition in Richmond. This is probably the deepest division in this year's championships. There are easily seven other athletes who might break into the top four if any of these four are off their best. It seems as if Dhaouadi and Genzel should be close for the win, a great race to observe! After that I give Norton the nod over Dolan as that was the way it came out in Richmond last year. I will opt for Dhaouadi over Genzel for the win.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Chokri Dhaouadi Robbie Genzel Anderson Norton
55-59 This division seems balanced. There are several runners challenging for the podium. Probably Christopher Harris is the strongest. He turned in a 35:33 10K at Peachtree this past July and ran 1:00:28 at the PNC Ten Miler in October. Harris has also been effective on the turf, running 17:56 in the 5 km XC Championship to take 3rd M50 in Boca Raton. Club Cross always has a deeper and more competitive field; Harris finished 17th in this division at Tacoma last month in 40:29. Kevin McGuire is another Blacksburg Strider who has done well at Richmond. he finished 8th in M50 in 2023 with a 30:40 effort. last year on a cold, windy day, McGuire dropped seven seconds from his time, moving up to finish 5th in M55. After those two the crystal ball is less clear. Matthew Farley finished 7th in the 50-54 division 3 years ago at the 2022 edition of this championship in San Diego. His time was 31:14. At Clubs in San Francisco at the end of that year, Farley finished 42nd of 78 in that oddest of years consisting of a short 10Km around the Polo Fields track due to high winds and rain. Farley is definitely a strong runner on the turf. Where does Scott Siriano, the two-time defending M55 Grand Prix champ, fit in? He has finished behind both Harris at Boca and behind McGuire at Richmond. But can he challenge Farley for bronze? He was just a minute behind Harris at Boca and a half minute plus behind McGuire at Richmond. So he is not far off. Without knowing anything about Farley's current condition it is hard to know. But it seems unlikely he would come to Boulder without being ready to run. His Boulder teammates are back in Oregon, so he is here for the individual competition. Based on that, I will go for a likely order of Harris-McGuire-Farley, but Siriano could definitely upset that suggested finish.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Matthew Farley Christopher Harris Kevin McGuire
60-64 This division features a matchup between Mark Tatum and Mark Zamek. Tatum is a top trail runner, winner of his division at the legendary Dipsea race this past year, and owner of the division silver medal from the 2024 Masters 5 Km Cross Country at Boulder. Zamek has a troublesome tendon that has kept him in rehab mode off and on for over a year. It did not stop him from finishing seventh in a loaded division at Tacoma last month. During this period, he has also managed silver medal achievements on the turf at Tallahassee in 2023 and Richmond in 2024. He ran 36:08 to take the silver medal at the Masters 10 km Championships. When Zamek is at all cautious about his tendon, his modus operandi has been to find the strongest 60-64 runner and stay with him as long as he can. That is likely to be his strategy on Saturday. I would look for Tatum-Zamek to be 1-2 for a chunk of the race. Depending on how that goes, Zamek could win or gradually drop back. My best guess is that he will wind up second, but I would not be amazed to see Zamek on the podium if he is still in touch with 2 km or less to go. Lester Dragstedt can probably not go with those two. He finished two minutes behind Tatum at Boulder in 2022. On the other hand, Tatum has a bigger advantage at altitude, and Dragstedt's times improved a lot from 2022 to 2024. Dragstedt won the 60-64 division 5 Km championship this past year in Atlanta with an 18:19 and finished 4th at the 10 Km Championships in 37:48. He finished 5th on the turf at Richmond in 2023 with a 30:49 effort. Adam Feerst had a down period, dealing with injury, but he appears to be back stronger. His time at Boulder this year, where he finished 4th in 60-64 was a good minute faster than his 2022 time. In 2022, he finished a few seconds ahead of Dragstedt. Tatum vs Zamek should be fun to watch; this Dragstdt-Feerst matchup just as much fun (for the spectators, if not the competitors)! I will go out on 2a limb and suggest a finishing order of Tatum-Zamek-Feerst, with Dragstedt very capable of upsetting that order applecart.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Adam Feerst Mark Tatum Mark Zamek
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| Mark Zamek right tracking the eventual winner of Men 60+, Nat Larson, at the end of the first 3K loop at the 2023 USATF Club Cross Country Championships in Tallahassee FL Photo Credit: Mike Scott |
65-69 Three top Masters runners, Dan King, Roger Sayre, and Ken Youngers, meet in the 65-69 division. At Boulder, they went 1-2-3. Sayre was not at Tacoma, but King again had the edge over Youngers. King has a niggling tendon issue that may factor into the race. King is aiming for a top performance at the Worlds in Gainesville at the end of March. he does not want to jeopardize that. The American 1500M and Mile record holder on the outdoor track, King has the advantage that he doesn't need a wire-to-wire victory with a good time. He can be content to let Sayre or Youngers set the pace, stay with them and bolt away with, say 200 meters to go. But we do not know what signals the tendon will be sending to King and how he will adjust if at all. King is the favorite to win if all goes well with the tendon. King won with wire-to-wire victories at two Club Cross races, Tallahassee in 2021 and Tacoma last month. He also won at Boulder, as he did in 2022, dropping his 2022 time by half a minute. Sayre and Youngers are no strangers. But, for a variety of reasons they have only had two recent meetings on the turf. One was at Boulder this past November where Sayre finished 2nd in 19:29 and Youngers third at 20:05. Given that was at altitude, the difference is not definitive. When they met at sea level the previous January in Richmond, they finished in a virtual dead heat, with Sayre given a time one second faster than Youngers at 32:44, despite the latter dealing with a back that went out with a half kilometer to go. It seems reasonable to speculate that Youngers would likely have come in ahead of Sayre had his back behaved. Apparently, Youngers has had no similar back issues in the ensuing twelve months. I view it as a toss-up. But I can suggest an order of King-Sayre-Youngers on the basis that Sayre came out on top in the official results at both Richmond and Boulder. Dan Spale is back at a national championship; he finished 2nd in M65 at Boulder in 2022 with a 20:53 effort. He ran 41:54 at the Bolder Boulder 10K this year, at altitude. Spale and Casey Hannan, who finished 7th in this division at Tacoma last month with a 35:12, will battle for the 4th spot unless one of the top three has an off day. I will go with King-Sayre-Youngers for 1-2-3 with, perhaps Hannan 4th and Spale 5th. Lots of intriguing competition going on within this division.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Dan King Roger Sayre Ken Youngers
70-74 Rick Becker, 3-time Masters Harrier of the Year, goes for his second consecutive win in his new 70-74 division. His winning time at Tacoma last month was 33:48. Five of his 7 competitors in this division here at Lubbock were also at Tacoma. None finished within three minutes of Becker. No one expects anything other than a win. The three Boulder Road Runner teammates, Jack Pottle, Doug Bell, and Doug Chesnut appear to be the three to contest for 2-3-4. Pottle is new to the division. He came in 5th in M70 at Tacoma, nearly two minutes ahead of Chesnut and 2 and a half minutes ahead of Bell. They fared the same at Boulder. Pottle claimed 7th in M65 at 21:22. Chesnut and Bell took 3-4 in M70 at 22:51 and 23:11. At Tallahassee in December 2023, Bell and Chesnut came in essentially together at 37:57. Still. Cushman has finished ahead of Bell fairly regularly at recent cross country events. A finishing order of Becker-Pottle-Chesnut seems the most likely. Scott Lucking and Don Morrison could also contend for the podium. But Lucking finished over a minute behind Bell at Tacoma and Morrison finished almost a minute behind Bell at Richmond. They will need to have good days to have a shot at this podium.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Rick Becker Doug Chesnut Jack Pottle
75-79 This one seems straightforward. Rick Katz and Jerry Learned have met a number of times over the last couple of years. They went 1-2 in M75 at Boca with 24:49 for Katz and 26:12 for Learned. It was much closer at Tallahassee in 2023, with Katz taking 3rd just 18 seconds ahead of Learned in 4th. At Richmond the following January it was the same story. It seems reasonable to suggest the most likely outcome is again Katz ahead of Learned. The morning I was going to fly to Dallas and then drive to Lubbock, I learned that my flight to Dallas was cancelled. Despite my best efforts, no other alternative that was cost effective and timely could be had. As my team was not, in the end, able to send a complete team to Lubbock anyway, I accepted that I was not meant to compete, as an individual, at Lubbock. Had that not happened I would have had to weigh my chances for the podium, which were probably pretty good. But now I can write that Micks Purnell and Patrick Taylor will battle for the bronze medal. At Richmond in 2024, Taylor finished 9th in M75 at 51:54. Purnell ran 51:57 to finish 12th in M70. As Taylor was three seconds faster then, I will go with Taylor for the bronze medal.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Rick Katz Jerry Learned Patrick Taylor
80-84 Przemek Nowicki is unopposed. He will run the entire race and enjoy his first gold medal in a Cross Country national championship in a long time.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Przemek Nowicki
Women 40-44 Metivier, Lund, and Crocker, the favorites to go 1-2-3 overall, come from this division. Hence they are the favorites for the division podium as well, with Hruska and Shaw fighting for the next spot.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Alison Crocker April Lund Renee Metivier
45-49 Sheila Smitherman finished 29th at Tacoma in this division in 29:16. She will win it in Lubbock as long as she finishes the race. She is unopposed.
Podium Favorite:
Sheila Smitherman
50-54 Abby Dean Greater Philadelphia Track Club returns to contend for the top spot. She finished third at the 2023 edition of these championships at Richmond in 26:26 and again last year in 26:44. In both years she was recovering from a medical procedure and had not fully trained up yet. She was on the podium at Atlanta in the Masters 5 km championships at 20:22 and at the Masters 10 Km Championships, running a slightly faster mile pace at twice the distance. Her 5K's in December and early January are also at that sub-6:30 pace so Dean should be ready to race. It would have been another good matchup with Samantha Forde Impala Racing but I learned that Forde tore her meniscus in Tacoma. It will be a few months before Forde can race again. Despite Forde's absence it looks like Impala Racing will have a 50+ team in Lubbock. If so, Dean's main competition should come from Alexandra Newman Impala, one of the mainstays of their 50+ team. She has run in the Richmond editions of this championship, finishing a minute behind Dean in 2023. Newman, the out-of-association runner for Impala hails from Colorado; she finished 4th in the division in Boulder with a 23:28. She finished 21st of 31 at Tacoma in 29:24. Gloria Wahl looks to be the better candidate for third place. She has run several half marathons in about 1:49, including at the Masters Half Marathon championships in Indianapolis; the hills on that course can be challenging. She also ran a 49:29 10K at Palo Alto in September. That puts her a bit ahead of Riva Rahl unaffiliated who ran a 52:12 10K in Dallas in May and, six years ago in 2018, a 1:47:40 half marathon. The most likely order seems to be Dean-Newman-Wahl. But Rahl could surprise if her fitness has improved since May.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Abby Dean Alexandra Newman Gloria Wahl
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| Abby Dean lleading a group of competitors in the Women's Masters race at the 2023 USATF Cross Country Championships in Richmond VA Photo Credit: Mike Scott |
55-59 No entries.
60-64 Kris Huff Atlanta appears to be the one to beat. She has had a good year. She finished 4th in this division last year in Richmond with a time of 27:54. Her 21:23 5K in Atlanta landed her on the 60-64 podium. In August she claimed the silver medal at the Masters Ten Mile Championships at 1:11:55. Huff's teammate, Robin Tanner Atlanta looks good for second place although the mysterious Mary Bryan Impala could challenge. Tanner finished tenth in 60-64 at Richmond last year in 32:34. She claimed 27th in this division at Tacoma last month after finishing ninth in the division at Boulder in 27:37. Tanner has been a steady presence for the team this year, also picking up valuable points at the 5 Km Masters Championships in Atlanta and at the Ten Mile Championships in Flint MI in August, with a 1:30 effort. Leslie Nowicki's times have come down over the last couple of years. Whether that will be enough for her to overtake Tanner is the question. At Richmond last January, Nowicki ran a half minute faster than she had the previous year. But she was still a minute and a half behind Tanner. Later in the year at the 12 Km Championships, Nowicki clocked 1:09:19 to finish 11th at the 12 km Championships. Bryan is mysterious only in that I can find no results on Athlinks for a Mary Bryan who seems plausible. A 64-year-old Mary Bryan from California shows up on Athletes but there are no entries. That same Mary Bryan from San Anselmo ran a 2:31:44 half marathon at the Great Race of Agoura Hills in 2022. Is that the Mary Bryan who will be competing for Impala? If so, she is not a threat to Nowicki who ran 2:04:59 on the challenging course at Indianapolis in the Masters National Championships, finishing third in the division. It appears that Huff-Tanner-Nowicki is the most likely order of finishing on Saturday.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Kris Huff Leslie Nowicki Robin Tanner
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| Kris Huff alongside Eileen brennan-Erler and ahead of her teammate, Mireille Silva red singlet background at the 2023 Club Cross Championships in Tallahassee FL Photo Credit: Mike Scott |
65-69 Suzanne Cordes thrives on the turf. She won this division at Boulder in November in 23:43. She won it in 2022 as well, turning in a 23:16. With the deeper and more competitive fields at Clubs, Cordes has still competed for the podium, finishing fourth at both San Francisco in 2022 and at Tallahassee in 2023, clocking 26:49 and 27:39, respectively at the two national championships. She faces two worthy competitors. Mireille 'Mimi' Silva has aged up from 60-64 recently. At Tallahassee in 2021, Silva finished 8th in 60-64 at 29:04 but was well behind Cordes. Two years later she finished 7th at Tallahassee in 28:42, a minute behind Cordes. Silva also competed on the roads, finishing sixth in W60 at Atlanta in the Masters 5 Km championships. That is relevant because Kitty Musante, the other main challenger for the podium this Saturday, was also in that race, finishing third in 65-69 with a 23:04. Musante has not competed much on the turf. She did compete in Boca Raton in October 2023 at the 5 Km Masters XC championships, finishing fourth in this division in 27:01. What makes the race for the silver medal more interesting is that Musante was not at her best earlier this year. Her more recent 5K efforts this winter have been at 22:39 and 22:58. Still it seems the more likely order of finish is Cordes-Silva-Musante.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Suzanne Cordes Kitty Musante Mireille Silva
70-74 The likely order of finish is Cynthia Lucking and Helene Myers going 1-2. In 2019 Lucking finished 3rd in 65-69 at Cross Nationals in Tallahassee with a 30:34. In December 2023, Lucking returned to the national turf wars after a few years off for, among other things, a joint replacement. She ran slower, of course, at 35:31, but finished higher, earning the silver medal in 70-74. After finishing second in 70-74 at Boulder in 32:15, Lucking went to Tacoma. Lucking just missed a medal, finishing fourth in 34:58. She appears ready to roll for a win. Myers won the 2024 Grand Prix in this division. She won it from persistence and commitment to the national championships circuit. Her smile often lights up the cross country course or the roads as she completes yet another championship. She finished 13th at Tacoma in 56:10, over twenty minutes behind Lucking. But she will, almost for sure, win the silver medal and obtain 95 of 100 possible Grand Prix points in Lubbock.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Cynthia Lucking Helene Myers
75-79 Jo Anne Rowland finishes on the division podium just about every time she races in a national competition. There are the rare exceptions of course. In one of the deepest and most competitive fields in memory at the 2022 Club Cross races in San Francisco, Rowland finished fourth. At Tacoma last month, Rowland finished second in 75-79 with a 35:34. Earlier in the year, Rowland was rolling along. She claimed the division title at the Impala Stampede in June with a 26:13. She captured gold at the Masters Ten Mile Championships in Flint MI with a 1:28:11. Kathleen Allen looks good for 2nd place. She finished seventh at Tallahassee Clubs in 2023 with a 39:17 effort. This past month, she competed in 75-79 at Tacoma, finishing fourth in 42:09. Nelda Williams was almost two minutes behind Allen at Tacoma, finishing fifth. Andrea McCarter, the two-time defending 75-79 Grand Prix champion, is likely to pick up 85 points for fourth place. She finished almost seven minutes behind Allen at Tallahassee in 2023 so is not likely to challenge for the podium. The likely order of finish is Rowland-Allen-Williams.
Podium Favorites in Alphabetical Order:
Kathleen Allen Jo Anne Rowland Nelda Williams
80-84 No entries
85-89 Joyce Hodges-Hite continues her quest for a third straight Grand Prix championship in 85-89. She is unopposed and will conclude her second straight race this season with 100 GP points. She won this division in Tacoma with a time of 1:12:46.
Podium Favorite:
Joyce Hodges-Hite
Age Grading Championships
Age-Grading overall championships indicate the best performance, adjusted for age. Based on single age best times from around the world, Alan Jones devised the age grading tables that have been used for at least the last 15 years. Jones fits a curve to data on the best single age performances in the last five years for the 5K, 10K, half marathon and marathon as anchors. He then interpolates for distances between those, like 8K or 15 K. Once Jones retired, Tom Bernhard started helping Jones with his tables. This year Bernhard took a more active role in preparing the 2025 tables. Each athlete has a percentage figure, sometimes referred to as a PLP [Performance Level Percentage] assigned to their individual time indicating how close they are to the fastest possible time for their individual age and sex. If the tables suggest the best possible 10K time for a 70-year-old male is 38:00 and a 70-year-old male runs a time of 40:00, his percentage is 38/40 * 100 or 95%. I guess that the new tables will start being used for the 10 Km Masters championships in Dedham in late April, but that is just a guess. Timing companies have to be able to get software that has the new tables. Every past iteration of this process has resulted in more challenging age grading standards and that is likely this year as well. Bests never get slower; they either improve or stay the same. Women have continued to push out the boundaries at all ages. This results, ironically, in tougher standards going forward. For now, any age grade figures are from the 2020 age grading tables.
Metivier, Lund, Cordes and Rowland are the favorites in the Women’s race. Dean should figure into that race as well.
Becker, Gray, and Sayre are favored among the men. King and Zamek should probably be included but they have both said they will not go all out in the championships as they have bigger targets late this year. They are still both hunting for the win, if possible, though so who knows?
Team Championships
Note: Men 40+ and 50+ require that teams have five scoring runners. For men 60+ and above and for Women, the number required is three. Scoring is by adding up the places of the required scoring runners; low score wins.
Men 40+ Sports Warriors, out of Albuquerque, look good for the win. They are unopposed. 50+ Atlanta Track Club and Blacksburg Striders go head-to-head again. Atlanta copped the bronze medals in the 2023 edition of these championships in Richmond. But last year the Striders jumped in and claimed gold with 46 points. Atlanta finished fourth with 90. History suggests the Striders are likely to win. of their six entries all but one is from 50-54. Striders have a very solid six that should be able to run as a pack for much of the race, admittedly with a couple of Atlanta TC runners along with them. 60+ Atlanta and Boulder Road Runners appear to be the strongest teams. Boulder looks to be a little stronger with Tatum, Sayre and Feerst compared to Becker-Youngers and Feerst but it will, no doubt, be close! Shore AC may be able to put together a 60+ team for GP scoring purposes and a set of bronze team championship medals. They have two declared and can add a runner from 80+. 70+ It is again Boulder vs. Atlanta but in this division, Boulder is the clear favorite; their top three are likely to finish in front of all of Atlanta's runners.
Women 40+ Team Red Lizard is the favorite. They just won the 40+ championship at Tacoma last month. They may be unopposed here. The team is so strong, with Metivier, Crocker and Shaw up front, that they would win against almost any imaginable opponent. The only question arises because the Sport 80 Membership application wiped out affiliations at the end of 2024 and only reinstated them once the Club's renewal was fully processed. That meant an unusual number of 'unaffiliated' registrations. I was identified as unaffiliated though I have run and continue to run for the Ann Arbor Track Club. The Club said that they renewed but were waiting for USATF to process. There are three unaffiliated runners listed for the 40+ team championships. If they are, actually, from the same club, then they might be opposing Red Lizard. But it could also be that they are new to USATF and thought, individually, that they had to enter both the individual and team competitions, even if unaffiliated. We will find out on Saturday. It will likely be Red Lizard winning. But there may be a second-place team as well. And, of course, anything is possible. Red Lizard have just the 3 runners required. If one of them runs into trouble getting to the championship or fails to finish for some reason, then they will not get a score. There is just a single team entered in each of the 50+, 60+, and 7+ divisions. Impala is unopposed in 50+ with Atlanta unopposed in 60+ and 70+.
That concludes the preview of the 2025 edition of the Masters races at the USATF Cross Country Championships. It is a smaller turnout than usual but most of the fields are still strong with a couple of the fields as stellar as ever. There are lots of intriguing matchups to watch.
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