Friday, October 4, 2024

Preview of the 2024 USATF Masters Half Marathon Championships in Indianapolis

October 1, 2024. Registration closes on Wednesday, October 2, 2024 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time. There is still time to sign up; that means any comments on those entered refer to those entered as of today, Sunday, September 29th. The event is being hosted by Beyond Monumental in partnership with the Indiana Sports Corporation. It is their first time hosting the Half Marathon. Last year, Beyond Monumental jumped in on short notice to host the 1 Mile Road Championships. Participant reaction was extremely positive for that event, so we look forward to another wonderful experience this coming weekend.

Start of the 2022 USATF Masters Half Marathon Championships, with a few Open Runners Mixed In


Good weather. They have managed a near perfect job on the weather. The remnants of Hurricane Helene hit Indy this past weekend. Thousands of folks lost power but nothing like the problems further south in western North Carolina and the Gulf. But things look good going forward. The most recent race day forecast was for sunny skies, temps in low 50's at the 8 am start and upper-50's at 9:45am, not humid (dewpoint upper 40's to low 50's) and 4-6 mph winds from the N/NE. It has been much warmer at the last two championships; this is a welcome change.

An Open Runner orange singlet along with Sanjay Rawal white singlet and Sean Battis dark singlet who woulld finish in 2nd and 1st, respectively, in the Masters Overall Championships, lead the Masters runners up the Adams Street Hill in the first Mile at the 2023 Masters Half Marathon Championships Photo courtesy of Syracuse Half Marathon

Is the course hilly? Even though I lived in Indianapolis for a number of years, I did not run in this race. I did run hill workouts at Fort Ben on occasion. I remember their 'Kill the Hill' section between Mile 10 and Mile 11 on the racecourse. They describe it as a 320-meter hill. What makes it a little more interesting is that you have a slight rise immediately before and then a dip down and a little bit of flat before starting on the hill. It is gradual at first but then rises to a 9-10% grade at its steepest. Also, after you crest the hill, there are a couple of more rollers. Getting the rhythm right through there can help. 

A Small Portion of the 'Kill The Hill' section of the Fort Ben course. If I recall correctly, the steeper portion is up the road out of the picture. Photo Credit: indyhalfmarathon.com


There is not much talk about the Boy Scout Road hill before Mile 3, probably because it is early in the course but well after athletes have found their rhythm on the first run down into the park. From the elevation chart, it appears to be about as challenging as the 'Kill the Hill' one. And there is a steep downhill section to navigate, starting at about Mile 8. There again, the grade gets to about 10%.

It appears that fit athletes can run a good time. In 2022, Caleb Kerr, an Open runner, set the record here at 1:05:08. Kerr did, admittedly run faster at the Indianapolis Monumental Half Marathon the previous fall, 1:04:54, but that is known as a fast course, and fourteen seconds is not much. Caveats are that the races were 11 months apart and I do not know the weather conditions nor the details of Kerr's fitness. A month after he ran the 1:05:08 in Indy, he ran 2:37:17 at the NYC Marathon, for context.

Event Records 2017-2023. Beyond Monumental acquired the Indianapolis Half Marathon and ran it as the Indy Half at Fort Ben, starting in 2017. I scoured their race results from 2017 to 2023 and came up with the following Age Division 'Event Records'. The course changed slightly and was recertified between 2022 and 2023. So the single running of the race in 2023 established course records, which are less interesting. Here are the Event Records as I have them; all are chip times. It seems likely that some, perhaps many, will fall this coming weekend.

WOMEN

40-44 Franziska Vansickle  1:21:17  2022     

45-49 Lucie Mays-Sulewski 1:24:30 2019     

50-54 Lucie Mays-Sulewski 1:30:13 2021     

55-59 Deanne Weaver 1:45:17 2021

60-64 Susannah Dyson 1:52:55 2021     

65-69 Lynn Lemmel 2:09:04 2021

70-74 Rosie Hughes 2:20:00 2021     

75+ Barbara Kaden 2:42:53 2019

MEN

40-44 Jesse Davis 1:09:43 2022     

45-49 Mike Cole 1:15:56 2022

50-54 John Clyma 1:26:53 2023     

55-59 Michael Smith 1:22:26 2019

60-64 Michael Smith 1:26:49 2023     

65-69 Joe Frucci 1:29:50 2022

70-74 Ken Schneider 1:42:30 2023     

75+ Darrel Crouter 2:08:28 2017

In case anyone's ambitions extend to American Records, here they are:

WOMEN

40-44 Deena Kastor 1:09:36 2014

45-49 Roberta Groner 1:11:28 2023

50-54 Linda Somers Smith 1:15:18 2011

55-59 Jenny Hitchings 1:21:14 2018

60-64 Jenny Hitchings 1:23:39 2023

65-69 Christine Kennedy 1:31:38 2023

70-74 Jeannie Rice 1:37:01 2019

75-79 Jeannie Rice 1:41:56* 2024 *

75-79 Jeannie Rice 1:43:09 2023

80-84 Joann Hall 2:07:00 2022

85-89 Margaret Davis 2:42:57 2008

90-94 Dot Sowerby 3:33:47 2023

MEN

40-44 Bernard Lagat 1:02:00 2018

45-49 Kevin Castille* 1:05:11 2018  * Castille accepted a USADA sanction in 2019 for a positive drug test.

50-54 Norm Green 1:09:30 1984

55-59 Norm Green 1:10:23 1987

60-64 Nat Larson 1:15:27 2023

65-69 Jacob Nur 1:18:00 2022

70-74 Gene Dykes 1:25:05 2018

75-79 Warren Utes 1:31:19 1997

80-84 John Keston 1:39:28 2005

85-89 John Elliott 2:34:47 2022


Start of Indy Half at Fort Ben Photo: beyondmonumental.org


2024 Preview of Main Contenders 

OVERALL

MEN Jesse Davis Indiana Elite AC/NB enters the favorite. He is the current Event record Holder for 40-44 at 1:09:43. He won the 2022 edition of this Masters Championship. His most recent credential is a Masters 2nd place, 7th Overall, at the Quad Cities Half Marathon, on September 21st in 1:12:18. Earlier this year in Lincoln NB he ran a 1:08:25 HM. Last October 28th, he finished 8th overall at the Indianapolis Monumental Marathon in 2:17:30. 

Jesse Davis wins Overall at the 2022 USATF Masters Half Marathon Championships Photo courtesy of Syracuse Half Marathon


His closest rival appears to be Ramiro Guillen Unattached CA, who was first Masters finisher at the Santa Barbara HM last November in 1:10:22. His time in the California International Marathon a month later was 2:29:38. Davis's teammate, John Poray Indiana Elite AC looks to have a slight edge on three others who also look like podium contenders. Poray has the fastest recent half marathon, his Masters win in 1:12: 37 at the Indy Mini Marathon. Last April his Rotterdam Marathon time was 2:36:12. I find no recent half marathons for Charlie Hurt Ragged Mountain Racing/VA, but his 2:35:20 at the Boston Marathon this past April suggests he will be in the hunt. The month before he ran 57:14 at the Charlottesville Ten Miler. Daniel McGrath Unattached New York was first Masters finisher and 7th Overall in 1:13:54 at the Run For the River HM last September. Two months later McGrath was the third Masters finisher at the Stockade-a-thon 15K in 51:34. John Yoder Boulder Underground finished second overall, this May, at the Newport OR HM in 1:16:18. At the Masters Ten Mile Championships in Flint in August, Yoder finished 4th overall in 57:16, suggesting Yoder might go faster than 1:16. Shaun McGrath Unattached NY and Michael Wilt Bat City TC, out of the 45-49 division, both have low 1:17's half marathons to their credit from earlier this year. McGrath clocked 1:17:02 at the Yuengling Shamrock HM in Virginia Beach, and Wilt finished 17th Overall in 1:17:09 at the Austin TX HM. They will, no doubt, attach themselves to the train and see if they can outlast some of the others, to work their way onto the podium. Davis and Poray are both fast and have hometown knowledge. Both have raced the course in past years. No doubt they have both done hill workouts at Fort Ben on occasion. Guillen appears to have the credentials to stay with them and might be able to break them up. So let me suggest a finishing order of Davis-Guillen-Poray and see who can prove that suggestion wrong.

Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:

Jesse Davis     Ramiro Guillen     John Poray

WOMEN If Tera Moody Unattached IN had not competed in the BOA Chicago 13.1 this past June, it would have been harder to pick her as a podium favorite. Moody had a fine Masters win at the Louisville Triple Crown 10K in March, clocking 38:22, but her other races were all 5K's. It is risky, at best, to judge Half Marathon fitness from a 10 K outing. Clearly Moody had LDR credentials. But her outing in Chicago erased any doubts. In finishing second Masters in 1:23:01, Moody showed she could make the jump to a strong Half Marathon. Natasha Yaremczuk Unattached FL will try to match Moody. Yaremczuk was the second woman to finish the Space Coast Classic 15K this past April in 1:00:23. In July she was the first Woman to finish the Nova Scotia Marathon, clocking 2:58:52. Neither of those two results suggest Yaremczuk would be likely to stay with Moody. But Yaremczuk raised her game at the Masters Ten Mile Championships in Flint in August, claiming 2nd overall in 1:02:52. 
Natasha Yaremczuk on her way to the Silverr Medal Overall at the 2024 USATF Masters Ten Mile Championships in Flint MI Photo courtesy of the Crim Fitness Foundation


That suggests she can run well under 1:25. Fiona Bayly Urban Athletics/NYC has credentials that are not far off those two. Running out of the 55-59 division, she took division titles at the UA NYC Half Marathon this past March in 1:24:32, and, in September, at the Bronx Ten Miler in 1:03:03. Bayly had an off day in Flint, finishing outside the top five. But her September 22nd Bronx result, where she finished 2nd Masters behind Roberta Groner, who just broke the American 12 Km record for women 45-49, suggest that Bayly is ready to compete for the HM podium. Those three appear to be the strongest contenders. There are several others who, if the day breaks for them, could push one of those three off the podium. In early May, when Abby Dean Greater Philadelphia TC/DE ran the Blue Cross Broad Street Run (10 Miles) in 1:04:36, she had the fitness to be knocking on the door of a 1:25 Half Marathon. Her current fitness is somewhat suspect. I find no race results for Dean since Memorial Day. Dean entered the 12 Km Masters Championships in New Jersey but did not compete. That raises the possibility that she is not at top fitness right now but is competing, primarily for team points. Greater Philadelphia has a chance at the Women's 50+ Team Grand Prix podium but only if they compete at both the Half Marathon and the 5 Km XC in Boulder in November. Dean is also in the thick of the Women's 50-54 Grand Prix podium fight and this may be a better shot at points for her than the XC, even if not at top fitness. Others with similar credentials include Jennifer McCann Unattached AZ, who ran 1:27:57 at the Indianapolis Monumental Marathon last October and a 1:28:29 at the Mesa Half Marathon in February. Local runner, Lucie Mays-Sulewski Unattached IN, holds the Event records for the 45-49 and 50-54 divisions. More to the point, she ran 1:27:58 at the Sam Costa Half Marathon in Indianapolis in March, not known as a fast course. Still, unless one of these three, Bayly, Moody, or Yaremczuk has an off day, they are likely to run at the top of the card. It is hard to suggest a likely finishing order among those three. Moody has the fastest recent Half Marathon. I am not familiar with the BOA 13.1 course. They supply a course map showing it in the West Chicago neighborhoods. The race does not supply a verbal description of the course characteristics nor an elevation chart. One would guess that a half marathon course in Chicago is not hilly, but that is just a guess. It seems reasonable to suggest that Moody is the favorite. Yaremczuk came in ahead of Bayly at the Ten Mile Championships so Bayly has to prove that she can come in ahead of Yaremczuk. All that suggests a finishing order of Moody-Yaremczuk-Bayly. We shall find out on Saturday.
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
Fiona Bayly     Tera Moody      Natasha Yaremczuk

AGE DIVISIONS WOMEN 40-44 Moody and Yaremczuk have this division to themselves. Their finish in the Overall competition dictates their finish in this division.
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
Tera Moody      Natasha Yaremczuk

45-49 Carla Snell Ann Arbor Track Club is the favorite. Snell finished fourth in this division at the Masters 4 Mile Championships in August, clocking 1:07:35. She clocked 1:29:41 at the UA NYC Half Marathon. Alicia Martinez Unattached IL runs often at national championships on the track and sometimes on the turf. It is rare to see her at a national championship road race, especially at this distance. At the 2024 Indoor Championships in March, Martinez competed in the 400M, 800M, 1 Mile Run, and 3000M in 45-49; her best finish was in the 3000M, 4th in 12:42. She competed at Club Cross in Tallahassee last December, finishing 9th in this division. At Boca Raton in October, she finished 5th in this division at the Masters 5 Km XC Championships. Her Athlinks athlete profile is private. Martinez may have run some longer races that I am not aware of. Unless that is true it seems that the likely order of finish is Snell-Martinez.
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetic Order:
Alicia Martinez     Carla Snell

50-54 This division has five strong, fairly evenly matched contenders, from Arizona, Delaware, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Last year, Dean Greater Philadelphia TC/DE dominated this division in the Grand Prix standings, winning easily off of three wins and two second place finishes. It has been more of a challenge for Dean this year, coming back from surgery last November. Still, here she stands with a chance to move up from 2nd to first in the 50-54 Grand Prix standings. As noted in the Overall section, Dean looked good in May at the Broad Street Run (10 Miler) in Philadelphia. Typically, Dean runs 8-10 races between then and the end of September, but I find none for this year. That suggests some kind of challenge to training. But perhaps she has put that challenge to rest and will step to the line ready to compete for the win. Let us hope so. Dean won this division, with a 1:28:18 effort, at the Masters Half Marathon Championships over a hilly course on an unseasonably warm day last April. Her 1:04:36 Ten Miler in May suggested she would be ready to run closer to 1:25 this year. She will have three challengers who appear to have similar fitness. Jennifer Malavolta Unattached PA finished third in this division at the 2022 Masters Half Marathon Championships in Syracuse, with a 1:32:08. In March that year, the weather was good, although the course just as hilly as the following year. More recently, Malavolta led the Team USA squad that won the Women's 50-54 Gold Medal at the World Masters Athletics Championships in Sweden in August. She ran 1:29:29 on a hilly course in Gothenburg, Sweden. Since then she has run two 5K's in 19:38 and 19:28 but nothing that reveals her longer distance fitness. Hometown runner, Mays-Sulewski Unattached IN, as noted earlier, owns two of the Age Division Event records. This year Mays-Sulewski has already enjoyed two fine half marathons in Indianapolis. She ran 1:27:58 at the Sam Costa Half Marathon in March and backed that up with a 1:28:54 at the Indianapolis Mini Marathon in May. Jenniffer McCann Unattached AZ won this division at the Indianapolis Monumental Marathon half marathon last year in 1:27:57. Her 1:28:29 at the Mesa Marathon half marathon in February supports the Indianapolis evidence. In April, McCann's 1:09:48 at the Credit Union Cherry Blossom Run [10 Miles], finishing third in W50, represents an off day. I noted that Dean has, apparently, not raced since May. I find no results for McCann since April. There is just as much doubt about McCann's current fitness as Dean's.  Julie Mercado Dayton TC has not raced in many national masters championships. She did enter the 1 Mile Championships when they were in Indianapolis in June, 2023, finishing 2nd in 45-49 with a 5:45. Mercado knows how to compete! What about longer races? Last October, Mercado finished third overall, and first Masters, at the Dayton River Classic Half Marathon in 1:29:19. This February she claimed the Grandmasters (50+) title at the Greenville SC Half marathon with a 1:31:06. A few years back, in late 2020 and 2021, Mercado ran two 1:25 half marathons.
This will be one of the more fascinating races to watch. An argument can be made for any of the five to win. Dean is the Masters HM Championships defender. Malavolta is coming off a superb Team USA win in Sweden. Mays-Sulewski has two strong outings this year, is running locally, and knows the course. McCann has the fastest recent half marathon. Mercado has two high finishes in smaller half marathons at just slightly slower times than the rest. There is no obvious reason to leave any of these five off the list of key contenders. May they all have great races!
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
Abby Dean     Jennifer Malavolta     Lucie Mays-Sulewski     Jenniffer McCann     Julie Mercado     

55-59 Bayly Urban Athletics, a legitimate contender for the overall win, is the favorite to take the 55-59 title. Hronn Gudmundsdottir Impala Racing is primarily running for her team but should pick up the silver medal in this age division at the same time. She finished fifth in this division at the Masters Ten Mile Championships in Sacramento last year in 1:10:13, roughly consistent with a low 1:30's half marathon. Last November, Gudmundsdottir clocked 1:37:54 in winning the 55-59 division at the Clarksburg Country Run (HM). Like Gudmundsdottir, Cassandra Crane Genesee Valley Harriers and Maureen Massell Shore AC are focused mostly on team medals and Team Grand Prix points. Shore currently leads the W50+ Grand Prix with Impala second and GVH fifth. Crane and Massell met in September at the Masters 12 Km Championships in Highlands NJ. Massell took the honors then, 1:01:07 and sixth place to Crane's 1:02:50. Massell also finished ahead of Crane at the Masters 10K Championships at the James Joyce Ramble in April. It would be a small upset for Crane to take the bronze medal ahead of Massell but each course and race day presents a new challenge. Laura Delea is a late entrant but is not certain if she will run or not. Delea, one of the top contenders in years past for division podiums, has had an up and down last year or so. She surprised herself by claiming third place in this division at the 12 Km Championships last month in 54:50, age grade equivalent to a 1:38:52. But, of course, Delea has not trained up for a half marathon. Nonetheless, on the spur of the moment, when she had originally planned on running a 2-mile race as a time trial, she jumped into a Half Marathon last weekend. She reasoned that the weather was rainy and windy; she would not have a good time trial. So why not a half marathon? It would be good mileage at least. Her time was 1:38:00. As Delea put it on her Strava post, '...lifetime miles kicked in...for an untrained half...' If she can run that fast again this weekend, Delea is in line for the podium, probably in third place, but the silver medal would not be impossible. But she has, apparently, had a busy week, with travel, among other things. Because of the uncertainty about whether she will compete or not, I simply add her to the three already listed.
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
Fiona Bayly      Laura Delea     Hronn Gudmundsdottir    Maureen Massell

60-64 Lisa Veneziano Unattached MI is the solid favorite in her new Age Division. When she won her age division at the Masters 10 Mile Championship hosted by the Crim Fitness Festival in August, her 1:04:22 won the 55-59 division. Now she is in the 60-64 division and ready to roll. Her longer races over the last year suggest she is ready to run somewhere between 1:25 and 1:29. The last time she ran in a Masters Half Marathon Championship, it was in March 2022 over a hilly Syracuse course. But the weather was fine. She won her division in 1:27:01. If one applies two years of aging to update the time to March 2024 by the Age Grading calculator, the time comes out to 1:29:19. That is probably on the high side because of the course difficulty and/or the age grading mechanism for guessing what a time in 2022 would mean for an athlete running in 2024. Her 3:01:27 Detroit Free Press Marathon last October suggests she could have run a 1:27:04 half marathon. Veneziano's 10 Mile win in August suggest she might have been capable of running a 1:24:52. That is probably too generous because it is projecting from a shorter to a longer distance. Neither of the other two entrants are a threat to break 1:30. Kris Huff Atlanta TC had a fine outing at the 10 Mile Championships in Flint, finishing 2nd in this division. Her 1:11:56 there was over seven minutes behind Veneziano's winning 55-59 win and equates to something like a 1:35 half. This July, Huff ran a 1:37:45 at the Cleveland Celebration Half Marathon. Deborah Mattheus Unattached HI will try to match strides with Huff. In April 2022, Mattheus ran 1:38:28 at The Hapalua-Hawaii's HM. Last June she ran 1:35:11 at the Ho'oku Half Marathon in Hawaii. Huff and Mattheus appear pretty well matched; they should enjoy a good competition! Barring a surprise, Veneziano should win the division; after that it is anyone's guess.
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
Kris Huff      Deborah Mattheus    Lisa Veneziano

65-69 As of today, Stella Gibbs Impala Racing, Lisa Vaughn Unattached IA, and Helene Myers Potomac Valley TC are the only entrants in this division. They should finish in that order. Gibbs has won many a national championship. One that impressed me was her win at the Masters 10 Km Championships in 2022. Gibbs was able to pull away from two very talented runners, three years her junior, defeating Lorraine Jasper and Doreen McCoubrie by four and seven seconds respectively. Since turning 65 she has (1) won the division Masters 5 Km Championship in Atlanta 21:14; (2) finished 2nd to Nora Cary at the Masters 10 Km Championships in Greater Boston, losing by just 8 seconds 43:04; (3) won the Masters 1 Mile Championships at the Mile of Truth in Danville CA by a scant two seconds 6:29.6; and (4) finished 2nd to Cary again at the Masters Ten Mile Championships in Flint Mi in August 1:13:45. That is a pretty amazing string of races! They suggest a half marathon time under 1:40 is likely. Last October, Vaughn ran the Grand Rapids Half Marathon in 1:53:51. Vaughn finished 4th in this division at the Ten Mile Championships in Flint, running 1:26:35. Both races are consistent with a 1:53 to 1:55 half marathon. Myers is a committed runner for the Masters National Grand Prix of championships. She was finished second in the 2023 Women 65-69 Grand Prix and is currently 4th in the 2024 Women 65-69 Grand Prix. If she can finish third here, Myers can move up in the Grand Prix standings. Myers needs to finish the 13.1 miles, and she is very good at that. She completed the 12K Championships in New Jersey last month in 1:54:37. That suggests Myers will need to run for well over three hours. But she did that in April of 2023 in Syracuse at the Masters Half Marathon Championships, finishing 14th in 3:15:14. In fact, she has finished three other half marathons since then, including the half at the Deseret News marathon in Salt Lake City in July. All were completed in well over three hours. It would be a big surprise if the final finishing order were other than Gibbs-Vaughn-Myers.
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
Stella Gibbs      Helene Myers    Lisa Vaughn

70-74 Victoria Crisp Unattached TN is a strong distance runner. She won this division in 26:23 at the Masters 5 Km Cross Country Championships in Boca Raton FL last October. More impressively, she finished ahead of Jeanette Groesz, who has won a number of national age division cross country championships. At the Publix Ft. Lauderdale A1A Half Marathon this past February, she demonstrated her range; Crisp won the division with a 1:59:49 effort. She reinforced that impression with a 1:21:55 Ten Miler to finish 2nd in this division at the national Masters Championships in Flint. If Crisp can match that effort, she could well run faster than the 1:59+ time she turned in last February in Florida. She has no rivals entered.
Key Podium Contender:
Victoria Crisp

75-79 Andrea McCarter Atlanta TC won the 75-79 Grand Prix in 2023 and has it locked up again this year. It is possible she has just entered the Half Marathon championships because she loves to run half marathons. But McCarter is a stalwart member of her club's F70+ team. It is more plausible that she answered their call for help. Perhaps they were expecting another Atlanta runner to sign up to join McCarter and Huff on a W60+ team? But there is no doubt that McCarter, an active triathlete, can run long distances. Last fall she completed the PNC Ten Miler in Atlanta in 2:08:38 and the INVESCO QQQ Thanksgiving Day Half Marathon in 3:00:16. Not surprisingly, she was on the podium in both, first in the Ten Miler and 3rd in the Half Marathon. As the only entrant, McCarter has only to finish to claim the win; there is little doubt of that.
Key Podium Contender:
Andrea McCarter

MEN 40-44 Davis, Guillen and Poray were podium picks for the Overall Men's race. If they fulfill that promise, the top three spots in this division are also theirs.
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
Jesse Davis      Ramiro Guillen    John Poray

45-49 S. McGrath Unattached NY, and Wilt Bat City TC, from this division, were mentioned as potential contenders should any of the others have off days. There is little to choose between them. Wilt ran a 1:17:02 half marathon in Austin TX in January at the 3M HM. Two months later, McGrath ran 1:17:09 at the Yeungling Shamrock HM in Virginia Beach. McGrath's best recent marathon is 2:50:17 at Boston this April and Wilt's is 2:51:02 at Chicago last fall. They should enjoy a true competition for the division title, with neither a clear favorite in advance. Shaun Hamilton Unattached, IN deserves mention as well. In August of last year, Hamilton finished 4th overall and 1st Masters at the Boy Scout Half Marathon in Bowling Green OH with a 1:20:28. He reinforced that evidence with a 1:19:50 division win this May at the Indianapolis Mini Marathon. Hamilton ran the Boston Marathon in April of this year in 2:53:03. Nathan Deeter is a strong runner at shorter distances; he ran 35:10 at the 2023 AJC Peachtree Run (10K). But I find no recent long races for Deeter. When I looked back on his Athlinks profile, there was no race beyond 10K until arriving at his 3 hour plus marathon in 2001. Deeter will have to prove himself on the course. It seems more likely that the Atlanta TC is looking for some Grand Prix points and Deeter was a willing volunteer. The differences between Hamilton and the first two mentioned are not huge. But they are big enough to make McGrath and Wilt co-favorites and Hamilton an upset pick. Late breaking news! Mike Cole Indiana Elite AC has entered on the last day, taking a break from his 'A Marathon a Month' year. A sample includes 2:55:36 in St. Petersburg FL in February, 2:58:06 in Chattanooga in March, 2:50:29 in Carmel IN in April and 2:55:37 in Cleveland OH in May. He also found time to run the Leadville Trail Marathon in 4:47:11 in late June and this past weekend, beat the Guinness Book of World Records time for fastest Marathon carrying a pizza in a pizza box at the Mill Race Marathon in Columbus IN with a 3:14 effort. Did I mention, in passing, that he has spent much of the past week, working 15-hour days cleaning up a home in Florida, after Hurricane Helene blew through? Cole has been a busy guy! He will not exactly be fresh! Last September he ran a 1:16:52 half marathon at the Mill Race Marathon (without carrying a pizza) and this spring, ran 1:20:29 at the Sam Costa HM in Carmel IN. That was in between the Chattanooga and Carmel Marathons. Whether he can approach either of those times is a big question. Most likely he is doing it to run with his team, and maybe enjoy pizza and beer after? Were he fresh and targeting the race, Cole would definitely be a contender for the division win. 
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
Shaun Hamilton      Shaun McGrath    Michael Wilt

50-54 There appear to be five entrants who are likely to break 1:30, possibly by several minutes. The fastest of those could be Rob Awe Indiana Elite AC. In November 2021, he ran 2:47:51 at the Indianapolis Monumental Marathon, passing the halfway mark in 1:21 and change. But a year later he ran 3:16:25 on the same course. Presumably something went wrong, either in the run up to the race or in the race itself. Marathons can be like that. But I cannot find a race longer than a 10K for him since then. On the other hand, he did run a 36:16 10K at the Carmel Marathon this spring. He has regained fitness for 10K's clearly. If he has been able to successfully ramp up his training for longer distances it appears he has the general fitness to run well under 1:25. If so, he is the favorite or co-favorite. Jason Newport Unattached OH appears to have a small edge on three others. In September 2023, Newport ran 1:23:34 first Masters athlete at the Parlor City Trot (HM) in Bluffton, IN. The race advertises itself as flat and fast, but the course is certified and not appreciably downhill. Two weeks earlier he won his division at a bigger Half Marathon, the News and Sentinel Half Marathon in Parkersburg WV, a 'rolling hills' course, clocking 1:25:42. This August, Newport finished 3rd in the division at the Masters 10 Mile Championships in Flint MI, clocking 1:03:15, consistent with a sub-1:25 Half Marathon. Awe's teammate, Mark Glover Indiana Elite AC, may be the fastest of the rest. He ran a 1:25:14 half marathon at the Carmel Marathon in early April but then, in May, a 1:28:42 at the Mini Marathon in Indy, which is usually thought of as a fast course. The two other potential contenders do not have any recent half marathons I can find. Matthew Cutrona Greater Philadelphia TC/DE ran a 1:00:44 15K at the Delaware Distance Classic last October. He followed that up this May with a 1:05:37 Ten Miler at the fast Blue Cross Broad Street Run in Philadelphia. Both are consistent with running a half in around 1:27 or under. Although extending comparisons from shorter to longer races is tricky, the half is only a 5 Km on top of a ten miler. I will give the edge in this one to Newport who has run three strong distance races in the last year and a bit. After that, I will go with Glover and then let Awe show on Saturday if he is ready to run a fast half marathon again. And, if he has a good day, Cutrona could wind up on the podium.
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
Robb Awe      Mark Glover    Jason Newport

55-59 John Fernandez enters the favorite, with Craig Godwin a definite rival. Fernandez, a newcomer to the Masters circuit this year, has made a big splash. He has won this division at the 5 Km 'Atlanta flat' championships in February with a speedy 16:14 and the August Ten Mile Championships in Flint with a nifty 58:35! In between those national triumphs, he ran 1:19:09 to take the division win at the Ohio Health Capital City HM. Godwin is a marvel. After his third heart attack a year ago, he is running well. He won the 50-59 division at the Bowerman 5k in July with a 16:34. This will be his first long distance race since 2022. On the other hand, when he ran a 16:30 to win the 50-59 division at the Bowerman 5K in 16:30, he had just run the Eugene OR Half Marathon in 1:18:52. That does not mean Godwin is ready to run a sub 1:19 half marathon. It may be like the famous Yasso half workout. If you can run the race that fast, you can do the workout, but not necessarily the other way around. If you can run the sub-1:20 half, you can run the 16:30 5K, but not necessarily the other way around. But you would not want to count Godwin out either; he won the 50-54 division at the 2021 Masters national 12 Km Championships in 41:23. And he is traveling a good distance to come to Indianapolis. Scott Ursum is not quite at the level of those two but has run some very solid times recently. His 1:02:04 to earn the bronze medal at the ten-mile championships suggest a sub-1:25 half marathon is well within Ursum's reach. In May he ran 1:40:50 to win this division at the Amway Riverbank Run over 25K, also suggestive of a sub-1:25 half. Ursum's most recent half marathon was just over 1:30, but Ursum runs a lot of longer races and seems to target just a few and run the others as training runs or just for fun.  My guess is that this one is targeted for a strong effort. 

Jeffrey Conston Shore AC/NY, Ken Ginsburg Shore AC, and Fred Weir Atlanta TC all have good shots at sub-1:30 half marathons. If any of the top three have an off day, one of these will move up. Conston is included because of his recent strong races at shorter distances. The half may be too far out of Conston's comfort zone to play out in his favor. In March of last year, he ran a 58:17 15K at the Spring Distance Classic and his 37:51 at the 10K Championships this April. Both suggest a sub 1:25 half marathon is achievable. On the other hand, his 47:25 at the 12 Km Masters Championships this September suggests something over 1:25. The only recent half marathon I find for Conston is a 1:28:31 in November 2022, at a local race in New York state. Probably Conston's likely range is 1:26 to 1:28 but we will find out on Saturday. Ginsburg's races are not quite as strong as Conston's. He was a minute behind Conston at the 12 Km Championships this year and his 1:00:46 at the Spring Distance Classic this year is a couple of minutes slower than Conston's 2023 effort on the same course. Apart from a 3:17:45 New York Marathon in November 2022, his most recent long race is his 1:28:36 at the Half Marathon masters championships in Syracuse in March 2022. That suggests he can stay with Conston, his teammate, for much of the race and on a given day, things could go either way. Weir seems to be the stronger of these three based on recent evidence. He ran a 1:28:52 in February 2023 on the hilly Publix Atlanta Half Marathon course. Last fall he ran 1:26:41 at the flat, fast BAA Half Marathon. That gives him two very decent half marathon efforts during which Conston and Ginsburg had none. On the other hand, Conston did finish well over a minute ahead of Weir at the 10 Km Championships in Dedham MA. That speed could come into play if Conston is close with a couple of miles to go. Weir is probably the more likely of those three to move up to the podium should any of the top three have an off day.
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
John Fernandez      Craig Godwin    Scot Ursum

60-64 Three days ago, I would have started this section by writing about Steve Schmidt Ann Arbor TC, who finished 2nd in the Half Marathon in Syracuse last year and 2nd at the 10 Mile Championships in Flint this year. But I learned yesterday that he will not be able to compete at this race after all due to a temporary illness. I will start by writing about Rick Torres KorfEdge Running instead. Torres has two sub-1:24 half marathons to his credit this year already. He won his division in the half marathon at the Carmel [IN] Marathon in early April with a 1:21:54. Torres followed that up less than a month later with a 1:23:25 at the Kentucky Derby Festival Mini Marathon in Louisville. With Schmidt out of the picture, there is no one else with the credentials to suggest they can run with Torres. The closest is Steve Heaps Club Northwest, who raced to a 1:24:58 at the Lake Sammamish Half Marathon in March and followed that up with a 1:27:36 at the Redmond Harvest Half Marathon this September. Rich Power Ann Arbor Track Club may be able to run with Heaps. From October of 2023 through January of 2024, Power ran four sub-3 hour marathons: Chicago 2:58:36, New York 2:57:45, Dallas 2:57:29, and Houston 2:54:17. If he had the same fitness now, Power would surely be running sub-1:25 half marathons. Then, in March, Power won the 60-64 division at the USATF 50K Championships, clocking 3:36:28. That. too, is consistent with a sub-1:25 half marathon. But the marathons Power has run in 2023 have both been over 3 hours. The only half marathon he has run this year is a 1:32:10 in Ludington Michigan in June. His 49:16 at the 12 Km Championships is, similarly, more consistent with a 1:29 than a 1:25 half marathon. Perhaps sub-1:25 half marathons are a bit out of range for Power right now. He should be under 1:30. It will be interst1ing to see how close to 1:25 he might get. David Black Atlanta TC ran a 1:27:57 half marathon at the February 2022 Publix Atlanta Marathon. In November of 2023, he recorded a 1:35:36 half marathon at the INVESCO QQQ Thanksgiving Day run. Three months later he ran the Publix Atlanta HM in 1:30:22. Those three are consistent with a pattern that would involve some challenge to fitness in 2023, from which Black has largely recovered. Black finished 4th in 60-64 at the Masters Ten Mile championships in Flint in 1:04:06, consistent with something like a 1:25 half marathon. That seems too optimistic, but it also seems likely that Black could now run a sub-1:30 half marathon again. Marty Cook Unattached KY presents a similar puzzle. In April 2023, he won this division at the Kentucky Derby Festival with a 1:28:40 half marathon. This May he finished second in 1:38:35. In June, Cook ran the Indy Monumental Mile 17 seconds slower than he had in 2023. By July 4th he ran a 5K in 19:46. That is close to what he was running in 2023. Those results suggest Cook may have been struggling with a fitness or injury issue in the spring and summer of this year. If accurate, the question remains as to how fully he has recovered for a half marathon, given an added three months of training. Larry Saks Ann Arbor Track Club ran two sub-1:30 half marathons this summer. Michael Mertens Genesee Valley Harriers ran 1:29:56 at the 2023 Masters Half Marathon on a hilly Syracuse course with unseasonably warm weather. Mertens finished 5 seconds ahead of Saks at the Masters Ten Mile championships. Saks and Mertens are both likely to run sub-1:30's. Whether that will be fast enough to make the podium is another question. My guess is that we will see a finishing order of Torres-Heaps-Power but it could depend on who has the better day. Power could move up. Black and Cook are, to some extent, wild cards, given the uncertainty about current fitness levels for a half marathon.
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
Steve Heaps     Rich Power    Rick Torres

65-69 Roger Sayre Boulder Road Runners should lead the way in this division. Sayre is the defending Masters Half Marathon 65-69 champion. He won in 2023, albeit on a different course. His 1:24:46 was a fine time on a hilly Syracuse course on an unseasonably warm mid-April day; he won by ten minutes! This May he lowered his American 65-69 25K Record by 51 seconds; his 1:39:50 is age grade equivalent to a 1:23:21. Nineteen days later he won his division at the challenging Bolder Boulder 10K, running 40:08 at altitude. John Blaser Unattached IA is probably the favorite for second place, although he will need to stay ahead of Jeff Mousseau Unattached ILand David Westenberg Greater Lowell Road Runners/MA. Blaser won his 65-69 half marathon division last fall at the Grand Rapids Marathon in 1:35:22. This past August, he finished 4th in the division at the Masters 10 Mile Championships in Flint with a 1:10:19, suggesting a sub-1:35 half marathon is within Blaser's reach. Despite that suggestion, at the Quad Cities Marathon on September 21st, Blaser won his half marathon division in 1:35:29. Mousseau is a couple of minutes off of Blaser, most likely. In August, 2023, Mousseau ran 1:38:24 at the Madison [WI] Mini Marathon. This May he ran 1:33:01 at the Lake Monona 20K in Madison; that equates via age grading to a 1:38:13 half marathon. In February 2023, Mousseau clocked 1:37:03 at the Publix Florida Marathon. In March he ran 1:37:16 at the Aurora HM in Illinois, and in September, dropped it to 1:36:22 at the San Jose Rock n Roll HM. I would guess that the San Jose RnR is a bit faster course than the Quad Cities Half. Westenberg is trickier to figure out. A gifted Miler, Westenberg has extended his range in the last couple of years, in part due to a father-daughter pact that they would both qualify for and run in the 2024 Boston Marathon. Westenberg's qualifier was the Tunnel Light Marathon. He covered the course in 3:03:16, age grade equivalent to a 1:27 and change half marathon. But the Tunnel Light has a 2,000 foot steady drop along a former train tunnel reconfigured as a rail trail. That clearly had an effect but how much? Westenberg got his BQ by the way. This past Apri he ran into trouble at Boston but still managed a 3:22:34, which is age grade equivalent to a 1:36:37. Thirteen days later, Westenberg won his 65-69 division at the Masters 10 Km Championships in 38:57. Westenberg is still primarily a Miler; he won the 65-69 1500M at the USATF Masters Outdoor Championships this summer. Everyone runs a half marathon at a faster pace than a marathon. Westenberg's half marathon pace should be still faster, relatively. In other words, if the age grade equivalent is 1:36:37, I would expect Westenberg to run a half faster than 1:36. And, since he ran into trouble at Boston, my guess is that he could run under 1:35 had he been running a half instead and not run into trouble after 25K. In that effort, he passed the halfway point in 1:29:09. That was both a consequence of it being downhill overall up to that point and a cause of the problems encountered after 25K. Still, my guess is that if Mousseau runs another 1:38 or so, Westenberg will finish ahead of him, and it could be quite a battle between Blaser and Westenberg. If it is close at the end, unless Blaser has taken Westenberg's kick away by forcing the pace, Westenberg is likely to take second. Westenberg is not training for another hard marathon and has been focusing on track speed for the last few months. But he has done enough distance training over the past six weeks for a good half marathon effort. It is easy to pick Sayre for the win. I will go out on a limb and pick Westenberg for 2nd, followed by Blaser. Mousseau has the incentive to prove the prediction wrong and blast his way onto the podium!
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
John Blaser     Roger Sayre    David Westenberg

70-74 Denny Kurtis is the favorite for the win, followed by Joe Reda. Kurtis won his half marathon 65-69 division at the Detroit Free Press Marathon last October in 1:37:15. He won this division at the Masters Ten Mile Championships in 1:11:40, age grade equivalent to a 1:35:08 HM. Reda ran a 1:36:11 half marathon at the August 2023 Madison [WI] mini Marathon and clocked 3:15:50 at the Indianapolis Monumental Marathon, equivalent via age grade to a 1:33:23. On the other hand, Reda's last two outings at national championships have not been as strong. He finished 4th at the Masters ten mile championships at Flint, in August, a minute behind Kurtis. Reda's time equates to a 1:36:24 half marathon. Kurtis did not run at the 12 Km Championships, but Reda had another tough day, with a fourth-place finish again. His time of 54:40 equates via age grading to a 1:39:01 HM. The question at this point is whether Reda continues on this trend or if he is prepared to reverse it and compete for the win. We will find out on Saturday. Douglas Chesnut looks good for third, although Don Morrison and Perry Linn River City Rebels/IA cannot be ignored. Chesnut prefers the shorter races, at least recently. He ran a 3:48:16 at the Last Chance BQ2 Marathon in Illinois, on September 10, 2022. That equates to a 1:50-ish half marathon after adding two years' worth of age via the age grading calculator. Chesnut can probably run faster than that. He finished sixth at the Masters Ten mile championships in 1:14:00. That equates to a 1:38:14 half marathon. That is probably too optimistic but something in the low 1:40's seems achievable for Chesnut. Morrison has run well recently; he finished 40 seconds behind Chesnut at the ten-mile championships. He has the advantage of having run a recent half marathon. Morrison clocked 1:42:15 at the hilly Publix Atlanta Half Marathon this February. A few weeks ago, Morison ran well at the 12 km Championships, finishing 3rd in this division in 54:35, five seconds ahead of Reda. Linn has not run long distance championships recently. In 2018 Linn finished 4th in 65-69 with a 1:33:03 on the Dexter-Ann Arbor course. In October 2019, Linn finished 5th in 65-69 at the 15K masters championships in Tulsa, clocking 1:05:25. But I cannot find any recent long-distance events, championships or otherwise. It would be difficult to pick Linn for the podium even if he did run some good times 5-6 years ago. Eugene Myers Potomac Valley TC finished 2nd at Syracuse on a 1:43:00 last year on that warm day in Syracuse. He ran a 1:39:27 half marathon at the Annapolis Running Festival in March. Myers also ran a 1:42:02 half marathon at the Deseret News Marathon in Sallt Lake City. But, with a gradual drop of 1600' it is hard to know how to translate that time. at the intermediate distances like 10 Km and 12 Km, Myers has not been able to stay with Reda, Chesnut and Morrison when they have competed in the same race. Based on the above, it seems like a finishing order of Kurtis-Reda-Chesnut looks most likely.
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
Douglas Chesnut     Dennis Kurtis    Joe Reda

75-79 Jerry Learned Atlanta Track Club, who won this division last month at the 12 Km Championships in New Jersey, signed up on the last day. He had told me in New Jersey that it would not be wise for him to run a half marathon now. But he is a great teammate. No doubt the call went out and he jumped in so that there is a complete Atlanta Track Club M60+ team. Unless Learned expects to run wise, meaning slowly, he becomes the co-favorite with Terry McCluskey Ann Arbor Track Club. McCluskey won the 10 Mile Championships in Flint in August. Learned won the 12Km in 1:00:40 which is age grade equivalent to a 1:50:17 half marathon. McCluskey's winning time at the Ten Mile championships was 1:23:14, equivalent in the same way to a 1:50:35. Those are, apparently, the only races over 10 Km in length, for either, in the past year. It is a toss-up. McCluskey probably has the edge. Historically he has been on national podiums at the half marathon and marathon distances. He has probably upped his training over the past couple of months and may be on an upswing. Learned competes at shorter distances in track and cross country and prefers races at or under 10 Km.  He rarely races at the half marathon distance. Usually, it is because it can help one of the Atlanta TC teams, as in this case. Your author, that is me, Paul Carlin Ann Arbor Track Club, should be picked for third place. I finished about 5 minutes behind McCluskey at the 10 Mile championships and about 4 minutes behind Learned at the 12 Km Championships. Both of those races for me, the 1:28:19 at the ten mile and the 1:04:37 at the 12 Km are roughly equivalent to a 1:57:30 half marathon. I hope to improve on those two races but we shall see. If I run a 1:57, it would be my slowest half marathon ever. But that can happen with age, I am told. Last year I ran 1:55:10, (which was my slowest half marathon ever, at least up to this point) finishing 3rd at the Masters HM championships on the hilly Syracuse course on a (too) warm day. The weather was more temperate in June when I clocked 1:53:00 at the Dexter-Ann Arbor HM. The fourth entrant in this division is local athlete, Steve Gilbert Unattached IN. Last month he ran the Geist Half Marathon in an Indianapolis suburb, Fishers, in 2:12:49. He ran the Quarter-Marathon, 6.55 miles, at the Sam Costa race in early March in 1:04:08. That suggests an order of McCluskey-Learned-Carlin, with Gilbert mounting the podium if one of those has an off day. Of course, all bets are off if Learned is under orders to keep it slow and just finish. But Learned is a competitor; even if he starts with that intent, it may not last.
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
Paul Carlin     Jerry Learned    Terry McCluskey

80-84 Harold Rosen has won this division at the 5 Km Championships with a 26:53. He won his division at the Credit Union Cherry Blossom Run, covering the 10 Miles in 1:30:19. That is equivalent in age grading to a 2:00:09 Half Marathon. In August, Rosen ran 1:37:23 at the Annapolis Ten Mile Run. But then he bounced back to record a 2:00:09 at the Parks Half Marathon in the Washington DC area.
Although it is net downhill, there are uphills as well as downhills; it has 380' of elevation gain and 480' of elevation loss. Certainly something close to, or a bit over, 2 hours is certainly within Rosen's reach. Prezemyslaw 'Przemek' Nowicki is recovering from some setbacks. Last year he ran 1:09:19 at the 12 Km Championships in New Jersey. This year he ran 1:16:22. The former is age grade equivalent to a 2:06:13; the latter to a 2:19:03. Most likely his time on Saturday will fall between those two. Rosen appears very likely to take the gold medal.
Key Podium Contenders in Alphabetical Order:
Przemyslaw Nowicki     Harold Rosen

AGE GRADING 
MEN The favorite is probably Roger Sayre, 66, who has often been on the age grading podium. 
Roger Sayre on his way to a 65-69 Division Win and the Age Grading podium at the 2023 Half Marathon Championships Photo courtesy of Syracuse Half Marathon


If he can run close to 1:24:00, he can grade close to 90%. If either Jesse Davis, 42, or Ramiro Guillen, 42, can run close to 1:10, they can grade in the 86-88 range. The same is probably true for John Fernandez, 55, if he can run close to 1:18, and Craig Godwin, 57, if he can record a 1:20 or so.
John Fernandez powering towards a 55-59 win and a top six age grading finish at the Masters Ten Mile Championships in Flint MI Photo Courtesy of Crim Fitness Foundation



WOMEN Lisa Veneziano, 60, and Fiona Bayly, 57, will likely be the top two, both likely to grade well over 90%. 
Lisa Veneziano closes out her Record-Breaking 12 Km race at the 2021 Championships Photo Credit: Jason Timochko


Based on recent results, Veneziano is a slight favorite for the top spot. 

Fiona Bayly powers her way to a fourth-place finish Overall and first 55-59 at the 2023 Masters Half Marathon Championships in Syracuse Photo courtesy of Syracuse Half Marathon


After those two, Abby Dean, 53, Stella Gibbs, 65, and Lucie Mays-Sulewski, 54, are co-favorites for the bronze medal place, with Gibbs probably having the edge. If Gibbs can come home under 1:39, she can hit the 90% PLP score.

TEAMS

WOMEN 40+ & WOMEN 50+There is one cobbled together 40+ team entered, from New Jersey's Shore AC. They have a complete team if Laura Delea is able to make it to Indy to run. Their 40+ team consists of two athletes from the 55-59 division, Delea and Maureen Massell, and one from the 60-64 division, Leslie Nowicki. Shore is the only entrant; if they have a complete team that finishes, they win. 
Key Podium Contender
Shore AC L Delea, M Massell, L Nowicki

WOMEN 50+ There is one 50+ team entered, from the San Francisco Bay area's Impala Racing. They have two from 50-54, Alexandra Newman and Gloria Wahl; one from 55-59, Hronn Gudmundsdottir, and one from 65-69, Stella Gibbs. Impala has four runners so it is more likely they will finish a complete team. If so, they are the only entrant and they win. 
Key Podium Contender
Impala Racing S Gibbs, H Gudmundsdottir, A Newman, G Wahl

MEN 40+ This division is all Indiana Elite AC, divided up into an 'A' and a 'B' team. The A team has Jesse Davis, Michael Olson, and John Poray. The B team, Chad Carver, Mike Cole, and Chris Galloway would need a couple of their guys to have very strong days and the A team to have a couple of guys have off days to have a real shot at the win. If athletes run as expected, the A team should win by over ten minutes.
Key Podium Contenders [members in Alphabetic Order]
Indiana Elite AC 'A' J Davis, M Olson, J Poray, 
Indiana Elite AC 'B' C Carver, M Cole, C Galloway

50+ Atlanta, Indiana Elite, and Shore AC square off in this division. The local team should take this one, too, even with opposition. They have two athletes, Robb Awe and Mark Glover, likely to finish well under 1:30. The key is that they have a third athlete, Andrew Hector, who should comfortably break 1:40. Atlanta should be close. They have two athletes, Christophe Cadiou and Fred Weir, likely to run under 1:30 but will likely give up some minutes to Awe and Glover. Atlanta's third runner, Lou Hartley, stays mostly on the trails. Those times are harder to judge. If a time seems slow compared to a road time, how much of that slowness is due to distance, how much to elevation, how much to technical sections (roots, rocks, boulders, mud, stairs), and how much to fitness? Hartley's 5K times suggest he could run under 1:40 but one can hardly project a half marathon time from a 5K effort. Hartley did compete at Cross Nationals in Richmond. His time there was a little faster than Jerry Learned's. As I have projected Learned for a 1:50, it makes sense to project Hartley for something like 1:48. If so, Atlanta would wind up about 20 minutes slower than Indiana and about 20 minutes faster than Shore. Shore is strictly trying to acquire some Grand Prix points and some Championship bling. Przemek Nowicki, 80, agreed to sign up at the last minute and run for the 50's team so they could score. Jeff Conston and Ken Ginsburg should both break 1:30 but Nowicki is unlikely to break 2 hours. It looks like Indiana, Atlanta and Shore in that order, barring surprises.
Key Podium Contenders [members in Alphabetic Order]
Indiana Elite AC R Awe, M Glover, A Hector
Atlanta TC C Cadiou, L Hartley, F Weir
Shore AC J Conston, K Ginsburg, P Nowicki

60+ Ann Arbor TC, Atlanta TC, and Greater Lowell Road Runners, out of Massachusetts are the competing teams. As noted earlier, Steve Schmidt will not be leading the Ann Arbor A team as expected. Nonetheless Ann Arbor is till the favorite for the win although it will definitely be closer. If Rich Power can run around 1:25 or under, Larry Sak around 1:30 or under, and Scott Fiske under 1:35, they should be home with a cushion of 15 minutes or so. Even if one oof those three had an off day or could not make it, Ward Freeman could still save the day with a half not too far above 1:40. Michael Mester is yet one more safety runner should he be needed. Greater Lowell is probably the favorite for 2nd place. If Peter Danzell can run close to 1:30, John Hadcock under 1:45, and David Westenberg also close to 1:30, they should finish a few minutes ahead of Atlanta. Atlanta's score is projected on the basis of David Black running just under 1:30, Casey Hannan running just over 1:30, and Jerry Learned running around 1:50. One or more of them would have to run faster for Atlanta to close on Greater Lowell for 2nd place. Atlanta and Greater Lowell have no room for error, of course, with exactly the three runners needed for a complete team. The likely order is Ann Arbor, Greater Lowell, and Atlanta.
Key Podium Contenders [members in Alphabetic Order]
Ann Arbor TC S Fiske, W Freeman, M Mester, R Power, L Sak
Greater Lowell RR P Danzell, J Hadcock, D Westenberg 
Atlanta TC D Black, C Hannan, J Learned

70+ Ann Arbor TC is the only team entered. They have five athletes on the team. Denny Kurtis, is expected to lead the way with a time under 1:40.  Eduardo Matsuo and Aaron Pratt should both run around 1:46 to 1:48. They should not need to rely on their insurance runners from the 75-79 division, Terry McCluskey, likely around 1:50, nor me, Paul Carlin, likely mid 1:50's somewhere. But if they do need us, we are there.
Key Podium Contender
Ann Arbor TC P Carlin, D Kurtis, E Matsuo, T McCluskey, A Pratt, L Nowicki

That wraps up this preview. May everyone have a great race! There are some exciting contests to follow. Who will run a PR or a Masters or an Over- AgeXX PR? Will anyone break an Event Record? Or set an American Record? Will the fast run faster or will there be an upset or two? We will find out about it on Saturday and you can read about it in my recap article!

The final championship on the 2024 USATF Masters Natiuonal Grand Prix circuit is the Masters 5 Km Cross Country Championships in Boulder. We return to running on the turf at altitude, as in 2022, when many of us encountered the Harlow Platt/Viele Lake course for the first time. I understand that some details should be available this week. After October 8th, check at: https://www.usatf.org/events/2024/2024-usatf-masters-5-km-cross-country-championship.





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