March 15 2018. Weather
prediction (as of March15 2018) for Race Day at 8 AM [race starts at 7:45]:
Sunny, 34 degrees 67% humidity winds 2 mph S—That's one forecast I would love
to lock in, especially the wind speed, given an average this time of year (and
experienced this week) in the double digits. Showers are now supposed to kick
in around 3 pm on Saturday. But keep an eye out, the forecast has been rather
variable on wind and even rain although there was never a forecast of more than
showers.
This is my final preview for
Records, Age-Grading and Overall contests, based on the 195 runners entered as
of Wednesday. The Shamrock crew is keeping entries open so late entries could
upset the apple cart. I will try to give some updates tomorrow on the Age
Division races. There will definitely be some outstandingly competitive races,
with a good chance for at least one American Record!
RECORD WATCH. Libby James
owns the 5K and 15K American Records for the 80-84 division, not to mention the
5K, 10K, 12K, 10 Mile, and Half Marathon records for 75-79. She entered last
year but had to withdraw due to illness just before the race. She is recovered
now, as evidenced by her running 26:55 at the Freihofer 5K and a 55:10 in the
FORTitude 10K in her hometown of Fort Collins CO (at altitude). In 2016 she
broke Anne Clarke's 1990 record by 5 minutes! Clarke also holds the 8K
record at 52:00 set in 1991. The likelihood of that record standing after
Saturday is about as small as you can get!
Libby James about to cross the finish line in the 2016 USATF 5K Masters Championship in Syracuse with a new American Record [Photo Credit Bob Brock, cropped by author] |
Last year Brian Pilcher was
coming off of a stress fracture and still came within 7 seconds of 28:07 set at
the precursor of this Shamrock race in 1993. Ordinarily that would make a
record attempt this year nearly a sure thing, but he missed much of last year
with a hamstring injury in September as he was training up for an appearance at
the 5K Championships. So where is his fitness now?
Brian Pilcher on his way to an American 60-64 Record at the 2016 USATF 5K Masters Championship [Photo Credit: Gavin Liddell] |
I am not sure. In the past,
though, when coming back from an injury, Pilcher has come to races before he is
fully fit--the man loves to race! So I am guessing he will need a race or two
under his belt before he can really chase records--although with Pilcher, you never
know! He took down the 5K record one week before cracking the Half Marathon, 25k and 30K marks on his way to matching the 60-64 Marathon Record.
AGE-GRADING. Age-grading
allows us to compare times over all ages in terms of how close they are to the
fastest a person of that (single-year) age should be able to run (generated
from statistics on 'World best' times at different ages and distances. The
closer to 100 the better the time; the Masters LDR Committee uses the terms
World Class for 90+, National Class for 80+. I am starting a campaign to start
using the term 'International Class' for the Grades from 85 up to 89.99. [The
reference to think about is an international meet like Pan Am Games or USA vs.
Jamaica or Great Edinburgh XC where the US goes up against the Brits and the
Europeans. Being in the hunt to qualify for those kinds of meets for an Open
Athlete would be like having an 'International Class' time.] Enough background--who are the likely contenders? The men's side includes two of the top 3 from last year, Brian
Pilcher, 61, and Nat Larson, 55, who scored 92.3 and 91.4
respectively, as well as Kent Lemme, 51, Mark Hixson,52, and Tom
Bernhard, 66, who all scored between 89.0 and 90.1.
Nat Larson heading for the Age-Grading Podium at the 2017 USATF 8K Championship |
The uncertainty about
Pilcher's condition should make Larson the favorite among the returning runners
but I learned that Larson tweaked his hamstring last week. Will that make a
difference? Lemme has been running really strong over the last six months. That
89.0 for Bernhard last year is rather low by his standards; he had knee surgery
in the winter and then was traveling in Japan so his fitness was off
early in the year. So I am looking for a higher score from him.
Tom Bernhard about to make the turn back onto Atlantic Avenue on his way to the 65-69 Age group win and a top Age-Grade at last year's 8K Masters Championship |
Who else might
figure in/ Three names form the Status of Entries who were not here last year
need to be considered: Doug Goodhue, 76, Tom McCormack, 64, Roger
Sayre, 60, and Joe Sheeran, 60. Goodhue was a fixture on the
age-grading podium up through a couple of years ago where some leg problems
started to sideline him from time to time. He is currently on the recovery
trail so nailing a top age grade is not on his list; he is running for the
team. McCormack knocked down the American 5K record in 2014 but in 2015 ran
into injury. problems that have kept him away from the Championships circuit.
We were set to welcome him back to the fray but there was a flare up a couple
of weeks ago and his return is off at least until the 10K in Dedham. Sayre and
Sheeran are new faces on the Road Race circuit, despite their age and prowess.
Sayre popped into the 15K Championship last October and topped both Lemme and
Bernhard in age grade. He was still 59 for Club XC so ran the 10K while Sheeran
was running in the 60+ 8K for the first time. Different races but Sayre's age
grade was better than Sheeran's. Sheeran is well known as a tough runner at
Cross Country Championships, but has not participated much in Road Race
National Championships. He had the top age grade in the 60+ race at Club XC in
Lexington this past December, a race in which he was not pressed. Since both
Sayre and Sheeran are both 60 now, whoever wins the race between them gets the
better age grade. I have been told that Sheeran is the better racer--time will
tell. It will be one of many great races to watch!
Nat
Larson Tom Bernhard Roger
Sayre
Marisa Sutera Strange and Doreen
McCoubrie are the top women returning from the 2017 age grading competition
here, at 93.7 and 92.2.
Marisa Sutera Strange giving everything she's got to the dash over the last 400 meters to finish 3rd Overall and acheve a top age grade at the 2017 USATF Masters 8K Championship |
Their teammate, Mary Swan, scored 90.0%.
Strange had some minor injury issues that kept her out of the 1 Mile
Championship and slowed her down at the 5K and over the Cross Country season.
Despite feeling somewhat off her game, Strange finished 2nd to Sabra
Harvey at both Cross Country Championships, finishing ahead of McCoubrie at
Tallahassee and ahead of Jeanette Groesz, 68, in Lexington KY.
Groesz is entered here and is favored for the podium. She and McCoubrie should
be close; both were within a percentage point of Strange in their respective
races. Swan was further back in those two XC races but she may be one of those
runners who prefer the roads to the turf.
Marisa Sutera
Strange Jeanette Groesz Doreen
McCoubrie
OVERALL CHAMPIONSHIP. The
top women returning from last year are Athena Track Club teammates, Marisa
Sutera Strange, Doreen McCoubrie, and Mary Swan, who took 3rd - 5th
in 29:56, 31:09, and 31:55.
Doreen McCoubrie leaves King Neptune behind as she heads for the Finish Line and a top age grade at the 2017 Masters 8K Championship |
The runner who seems most likely to challenge is Heather
Webster of the Genesee Valley Harriers.
Heather Webster [#1044} running with Marisa Sutera Strange [#1002] at the 2016 Club Cross Country Championships in Tallahassee |
She finished 6th overall at the 10K
in Dedham in 38:32 and finished 3rd overall at the 2016 Club Cross Country
Championships in Tallahassee, coming in just ahead of Strange.
Marisa Sutera
Strange Heather Webster Doreen
McCoubrie
The top returning men from last
year are David Angell, from the Roanoke Valley Elite and his Northern
Virginia rival, Philippe Rolly, of the Capital Area Runners. They
finished 1-2 last year in 25:24 and 25:51. Angell also took the Overall title at the
10K national championship and made the podium at almost every other
Championship in 2017.He won the Masters Grand Prix Individual title handily.
David Angell leading Derek Jones on his way to the overall title at the 2017 USATF Masters 10K Championship at the James Joyce Ramble in Dedham MA [photo courtesy of Scott Mason] |
Since
their race last year, Rolly has won the Masters title at the Bank of America
Chicago Marathon in 2:34:29.
Philippe Rolly captures second place at the 2017 USATF Masters 8K Championship |
Seven weeks after that, Jonathan Frieder was able to come in 18 seconds ahead of Rolly in
the Rothman 8K in Philadelphia. Was that due to Rolly still having the Marathon
in his legs or is it a sign that Frieder has the upper hand? We shall see. And
Jonathan’s twin brother, Elliott, was able to beat Jonathan at the USATF XC at
Tallahassee but he has not yet beat Jonathan on the roads. So that is another
wrinkle to watch out for. Nat Larson
was also able to come in ahead of Rolly in Philadelphia, but not Frieder. So,
is Larson in the mix too? And what of Larson’s hamstring tweak? And if Larson
is in the mix, what about his teammate, Kent
Lemme, who was able to kick away from Larson at the USATF XC Championship
in Tallahassee in early February? Both Lemme and Larson came in ahead of Angell
at the XC championship in Tallahassee. But Angell had suffered a freak knee injury
a few days before the race and was running with KT Tape. My guess is that he
has largely recovered 6 weeks later.
David Angell Philippe Rolly Jonathan Frieder
It should be a great day for racing!
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