A
reminder on rules and awards: a contestant must have 3 GP races to win a prize;
only the top 5 scoring events count for each athlete; ties are broken first by
head-to-head competition and then by most outright wins.
The
top 3 in each Age Division receive plaques; the next 12 receive certificates so
getting into the top 3 definitely brings some distinction. Where are we with
the Men’s Individual Grand Prix? The 40-44, 50-54, 55-59. 65-69 and 80-84 races have
already been decided; the competition for the other division titles will go
down to the wire.
Men
40-44 David Angell has this all
locked up with 4 first place finishes in the division, and two 2nd
place finishes to give him 495 out of a 500 maximum possible points. It is his
first Masters Grand Prix title! There is still a lot of uncertainty about 2nd
and 3rd however. Jake Stookey
and Thomas Knowles are currently in
2nd and 3rd place with 215 and 205 points on 4 Events; Kyle Lanier has 180 points on 5 events,
tied with Ethan Nedeau who has the
same total but only 2 events. If the turnout for Lexington is anywhere near the
turnout for Tallahassee last December, it will be very tough for any ofh these
athletes to finish better than 20th which is only worth 5 points.
Nedeau was the highest finisher from the group in Tallahassee and he finished
20th. Stookey’s Willow Street AC team did not contend either of the
last two Club XC Championships nor did Stookey, but he is entered for Lexington.
Nonetheless it seems unlikely he will score more than 5-15 points to wind up at
230 points or fewer, but that is likely to be enough to take 2nd in
the GP. Joshua Gordon, who runs for
Bowerman, will likely make the trip to Lexington. He currently has 135 points on
two events. He would need to finish better than his 15th place last
year to make an impact. A 15th place finish is worth 30 points which
would bring him up to 165. Nedeau needs to finish 16th or higher to
tie Knowles, assuming Knowles is out of the top 20 (he finished 35th
last year). Nedeau has the tie-breaker so would get 2nd place if
they are tied.
 |
| David Angell leading Derrick Jones on his way to a win in the 10K Championship at Dedham and 100 points toward his winning total of 495 |
My
guess as to the most likely outcome:
David Angell Jake Stookey Thomas Knowles
45-49 John
Gardiner has a commanding lead. It is safe to say that if he is anywhere
near his norm and races in Lexington, he will win his division Grand Prix for
the second time although for the first time in this age group. Gardiner has 385
points on 4 events. Kevin Castille
has 300 points from 3 events. If he runs Club Cross as he did last year and in
2015, it seems almost certain he would win, raising his total to 400. But
Gardiner has not scored below 90 points in any race this year, so it seems
almost certain that his final total will be well over 400 points. Others in the
hunt for a podium GP finish include Jonathan
Frieder with 285 points, Greg Putnam
with 280, Derrick Jones with 270,
and Brent Fields with 265, all off
of 3 events. All of those 4 ran in Tallahassee last year and are expected to
run in Lexington. Last year Jones finished 6th, Putnam 10th
and Frieder 12th. Fields was in the 40-44 division but his time was
1 second faster than Frieder’s. Frieder has been running stronger this fall
however, topping the other three at both Syracuse and Boston in the 5km
XC.
 |
| John Gardiner captures the win at the Half Marathon Championship in Newport Beach CA and earns 100 points toward his GP total of 385 [Photo Credit: OC Marathon by Paksit Photos] |
The
most likely outcome:
.
John Gardiner Kevin Castille Jonathan Frieder
50-54 Kent
Lemme has won this division with 475 points on 5 events. No one can catch
him. It is his first Masters Grand Prix crown! Mike Nier is currently in 2nd with 350 points on 5
events but he could be overtaken by Kristian
Blaich and Rob Arsenault who
have 290 and 280 points on 3 events each. All three are likely to run at Club
XC. Last year in Tallahassee, Blaich finished 3rd, Arsenault 8th
and Nier 11th. If they would finish the same this year, we would
wind up with Blaich at 380, Arsenault at 355, and Nier at 350 because the 50
points for 11th place matches Nier’s current lowest score. Mike McManus could show up and
complicate things but with 190 points on two events, he cannot make the top 3. It
seems pretty likely that Blaich will finish 2nd; whether Arsenault
or Nier finishes in 3rd will depend on how they fare in Lexington. It
could go either way.
 |
| Mid-Race Pack Running at the 5km Masters XC Championships in Boston-Kent Lemme (#4221) works his way toward a 2nd place division finish and 95 points toward his winning GP total of 475. |
With
such uncertainty, I will rely on last year as a guide and say the most likely
outcome is:
Kent Lemme Kristian Blaich Rob Arsenault
55-59 The only uncertainty left at the top
of this division is whether Nat Larson
can win the division title in Lexington and wind up with a perfect 500 points
in his best 5 finishes for the year. He has won every event he has entered
since he aged up to 55-59. But that was not true for the first part of the
year; his current total is 495 points from 4 firsts and a second place. Fred Zalokar who has already entered
Club XC, seems to be in the driver’s seat for 2nd place with 310
points on 4 events. Timothy Riccardi
and John Van Kerkhove with 295 and
260 points on 5 events each can only top up their lowest score. Jeff Haertle, currently in 5th,
is too far back with 220 points to factor into the standings unless some of
those ahead of him do not actually run at Lexington. Van Kerkhove had the edge
on Ricccardi earlier in the year but this fall it has all gone Riccardi’s way.
 |
| Nat Larson heading for the finish line at the 15K Masters Championship at the Tulsa Run, capturing another 100 points toward his 495 GP total [Photo courtesy of the Tulsa Sports Commission-Marathon Foto] |
Most
likely outcome:
Nat Larson Fred Zalokar Timothy Riccardi
60-64 The current leaders are Kyle Hubbart with 440 points, Reno Stirrat with 380 and his teammate,
Kevin Dollard, with 335, each with 5
events. Because all have 5 events already, their finish at Lexington can only
top up their scores by replacing their lowest current score with a higher one.
The maximum possible final score for Stirrat is 410 and for Dollard 380. That
means Hubbart has this title in his possession, his first Masters Grand Prix
title! Ken Youngers has 280 points
on 3 events. If Youngers could win in Lexington, which is not impossible, and
Stirrat finish no higher than 7th, Youngers could tie Stirrat and
would have the tie-breaker. But John
Barbour usually competes at Club Cross and would be the spoiler. He would
nto have enough points to place in the Grand prix himself. But if he wins, then
Younger can get no more than 95 points and Stirrat keeps 2nd place
regardless of where he finishes. Youngers would displace Dollard in 3rd
however.
 |
| Kyle Hubbart [background] about to pick off Pete Gibson on his way to a division 2nd place in the 8K Masters Championships at Virginia Beach and 95 points toward his division leading GP total of 440 points |
Most
likely outcome:
Kyle Hubbart Reno Stirrat Ken Youngers
65-69 Tom Bernhard has this one all sewn
up with a perfect 500 points in 5 events. No one can touch that! He can put
this Champions Plaque next to the one he won in 2015 for the 60-64 division. Peter Mullin is second with 475 points
on 5 events. This division is unusual in that neither of the first two runners
in the standings in expected to race in Lexington. Bernhard ran in San
Francisco but otherwise has not entered Club XC recently. Mullin hardly ever
runs XC. And neither will have to. Bernhard is untouchable and Mullin got
enough points in the 15K at Tulsa that his main rival, Doug Bell, cannot overtake him even if he should win in Lexington.
Bell would be ten points shy. It is worth noting that the Boulder Road runners
have first place in the 60+ team division locked up. Will Boulder compete? My
guess is that a team will come anyway, although maybe not full strength. One of
their 60+ team members, George Braun,
is entered already. I guess Bell will show up along with Braun and at least one
other to compete for the Club XC win and, in the process, get the points he
needs for his 3rd place finish in the Grand Prix. Kirk Larson is in 3rd with
425 points, and Jerry Learned and John Hirschberger are tied for 4th
with 410 points each. If Bell does not run in Lexington, then Larson would
likely take 3rd in the GP.
 |
| Tom Bernhard (L) sprints to the finish line with M55 Brian Kelley as Bernhard claims the M65 win at the 15K Championship and the 100 points that closes off his perfect 500 point Grand Prix season [Photo courtesy of the Tulsa Sports Commission-Marathon Foto] |
My
guess for most likely outcome is:
Tom Bernhard Peter Mullin Doug Bell
70-74 Paul
Carlin (yours truly) is the current leader with 475 points from 5
events, but I may not win the title. The good news, I guess, is that no matter
what happens, after finishing 3rd in my division Grand Prix in 2014,
2015, and 2016, I can finish no worse than 2nd this year. Gene French is in second place with 445
points on 5, followed by Dave Glass
with 375 on 4 events, Richard Kutzner
with 340 on 4, and Tony Gingello
with 290 on 3. I got off to a strong early start, but Glass has been dominant
this fall, winning the division at Syracuse, Boston and Tulsa. Initially uncertain
about competing at Lexington, he recently indicated in an email that the double
points nature of Club XC (counting toward both 2017 and 2017-18) would probably
tempt him to come. If so and if he wins, he and I would be tied with 475 points
each. Glass would win the head-to-head tie-breaker 3-1. But if Glass wins and I
finish 2nd, I top up my low score of 90 to 95 and would win with 480
points. Glass has to win at Lexington to take the GP title; I have to win or
finish 2nd to do the same. Unfortunately for me there are many
competitors in the way of my finishing 2nd. The main obstacles are Tony Gingello and the West Coast
runners from Tamalpa and Florida Track Club West who dominated at Tallahassee
last year. That assumes that neither Bill
Dunn nor Robert Hendrick, who both
beat me in Tulsa show up. It seems somewhat likely that Dunn will compete. The
Boulder Road Runners are trying to form a 70+ team with the intent of competing
at Lexington mainly because it is the first event on the 2017-18 circuit. If
so, Dunn is likely to be there. Gingello came in ahead of me in the 10K and 5K
although not far ahead either time. Last year the top 3 in the division at Club
XC were Ron Wells from FTC West and Don Porteous and Len Goldman from Tamalpa. I ran, though in the early stages of injury
recovery, and finished way back. The ray of hope I have is that those three do
not appear to have had quite as strong a run up to Club XC this year as last.
Based on recent results I have to make Glass the favorite to win at Lexington
and, on recent outings, Gingello is the favorite for 2nd, unless one
of the West Coast guys or Bill Dunn beats him. French, who has run consistently strong all year, should get 3rd in the GP.
 |
| Dave Glass claims the division win in the Masters 5K Championship at Syracuse and the 100 points that go with it to add to his GP total |
My
best guess at the GP outcome is:
Dave Glass Paul Carlin Gene French
75-79 The top four in this division are: Charlie Patterson with 460 from his
best 5 events, Andrew Sherwood with
450 from 5, Al Swan with 385 from 5
and Malcolm Cohen with 380 from 5.
No one else can overtake those four even if they win at Club XC. Patterson and
Sherwood are both likely to compete in Lexington. It is possible for Sherwood
to pass Patterson but it is unlikely. Since aging up into this division,
Patterson has beaten Sherwood every time they have faced each other. Patterson
has to finish 2nd or better to add to his 460; Sherwood has to
finish 2nd or higher to move ahead of Patterson on points if
Patterson stays at 460. Patterson should prevail and take his first Masters
Grand Prix title. Swan looks pretty safe for third as Cohen is not planning on
being at Lexington.
 |
| Charlie Patterson heads up the Boardwalk at the 8K Masters Championship in Virginia Beach on his way to hard earned points in one of his last races before aging up to M75 |
My
best guess at the outcome:
Charlie
Patterson Andrew Sherwood Al Swan
80-84 Jim
Askew has this all wrapped up with 395 points from 4 events, 3 wins and a 2nd.
No one can touch him.
This will be his first Masters Grand Prix title!
 |
| Jim Askew captures the division title at the Road Mile Championships in Flint Michigan and the 100 Grand Prix points that go with it |
This will be his first Masters Grand Prix title!
Jim Askew
No comments:
Post a Comment