USATF 2018 Masters 5 Km Cross Country Championships-Preview 2: Age Divisions and Teams

September 21 2018. The forecast for Sunday is still holding. It looks like sunny and low 60’s with winds around 7 mph range. The scattered thunderstorms predicted for earlier in the week never dropped any rain so footing should be excellent. We should have very good conditions for some terrific races at Delaware Park in Buffalo this coming Sunday, September 23rd. Let us consider Age Division races from 40-44 on up and then consider the Team Contests.

40-44

David Angell should win the division handily. And that is just about the only easy prediction. He has won the overall Masters Championships this year at the 8K and the 5K in 25:39 and 15:45 and finished 4^th overall at the Club XC Championships in Lexington and the USATF XC Nationals in Tallahassee this year. 

David Angell [#1635] running with the lead pack at the 2017 USATF Club Cross Country Championships

After that it is muddy with a ton of very fast runners. Josh Harter, Juan Martinez, Tim Rieth, Eric Sambolec, Michael Selig, and Shawn Williams all have a serious shot at a podium finish. Rieth ran a 4:51 at the 1 Mile Championships, finishing 4^th in the division and besting Harter by 8 seconds; Rieth also has a 36:11 10K to his credit. Selig has run 17:19 to 17:32 5Ks recently and ran 17:39 at the 1^st race in the Pete Glavin XC series, besting Sambolec, who mostly runs trail, mountain and snowshoe races, by 9 seconds, with Harter another 3 seconds back. Williams has a recent 17:19 5K and a 43:02 12K to his credit, as well as a 17:59 in the USATF-NJ XC Championships. The 12K time is age grade equivalent to a 35:37 10K. Martinez is new to the Masters game. He ran 1:15:34 in the UA NYC Half Marathon in 2017 but could ‘only’ manage a 1:17:44 this year. He also ran a 36:11 in the BAA 10K this year and has run 5K’s in the low 17 minute-plus range.

David Angell    Michael Selig    Shawn Williams

Heather Webster finished 4^th overall and in this division at the 2016 Club XC Championships. More recently she ran 39:52 to finish 6^th overall and 3rd in the division at the 10K Championships. The only puzzling thing is two 5Ks run this summer where she clocked 30 minute plus. I m guessing she was, perhaps running with a friend or relative but it is puzzling. My guess is that she is ready to run her usual race and should take 1^st. 

Heather Webster [#1044] running in the Chase Pack with Marisa Sutera Strange [#1002] at the 2016 Club XC Championships in Tallahassee

After Webster, Liz Gottlieb, Murphee Hayes, Sunday Patterson, and Kathy Wiegand will contest for the remaining podium spots. Gottlieb had the edge over Wiegand and Patterson at the recent 5K in Atlanta. I would have thought Hayes should be favored for her 19:44 at the 5K in Syracuse, but Wiegand beat her by a half minute in that race.

Heather Webster    Liz Gottlieb    Kathy Wiegand   

45-49 The preview for the overall race should hold for this division also. Kevin Castille is a strong favorite. Philippe Rolly and Jonathan Frieder should battle for the other two podium spots. Kirt Komocki will try to break up their party. He ran a 16:39 5K and a 35:02 10K this summer.

Kevin Castille    Philippe Rolly    Jonathan Frieder

Men's 40+ Field at the 2017 Club Cross Country Championships in Lexington KY

Sonja Friend-Uhl and Abby Dean should take 1-2 in the division. At the Cross Country National Championships in Tallahassee, Friend-Uhl finished almost 2 minutes ahead of Dean, but Dean is currently carrying a higher level of fitness as she was less than a half minute back at the recent 5K Championships in Atlanta. Caroline Bucci, Olga Huber, Alexandra Newman, Cecilia Regan, and Melissa Senall will contest for the final podium spot. Bucci edged Newman by 11 seconds at Club XC last December. Senall came in 24 seconds ahead of Bucci at the 10K Championship this past April. But Regan came in over a half minute ahead of them. Huber focuses more on trail running and snow-shoeing but ran 23:14 in the 2017 5K at Syracuse when she finished 5^th in the division.

Sonja Friend-Uhl    Abby Dean    Cecilia Regan

Sonja Friend-Uhl [#95] running in the lead pack with Jennifer Bayliss [#10] and Maggie Shearer [#248] at the 2018 USATF Cross Country Championships in Tallahassee

50-54 Tim Van Orden finished 7^th in the 45-49 division at the 2016 Club XC in 34:23. Francis Burdett was well back that year but was hampered by injury. He is close to the top of his game now and finished 5^th in Atlanta in 17:00, a half minute ahead of Adam Engst who will also be vying for the podium. Mike Nier would ordinarily be right with Burdett, and perhaps ahead, but has struggled a bit recently with a recalcitrant hamstring. Chuck Novak is coming back from his Gold Medal effort at the WMA Championships in Spain. He finished 2^nd overall at the 1 Mile Championships in August and has run 5Ks in the 16:40 – 17:25 range. Jim Park also has 5K’s in that range. Brad Kelley has a 17:26 at the Percy Sutton Harlem 5K and a 35:37 at the Queens 10K. His teammate, Mark Lindrud was a few seconds back in both. Tim Harte has a 57:43 effort at the Blue Cross Broad Street 10 Mile Run.

Tim Van Orden    Francis Burdett    Chuck Novak

Katherine Wolski finished 2^nd in 18:55 at the 5K Championships in Atlanta; that makes her the favorite. Amy Fakterowiz finished 2^nd at the 1Mi Masters Championship in Flint, has run 5K’s in the 19:56 to 20:30 range, and just ran 21:00 at the first race in the Pete Gavin XC series. Julie Deery clocked 1:09:17 at the Blue Cross Broad street 10 Mile run, which is age-grade equivalent to a low 20’s 5K. Kris Huff just took 3^rd in the 5K Championships in Atlanta in 21:19. She will be right there pressing those three.

Katherine Wolski    Amy Fakterowitz    Julie Deery

55-59 Ordinarily this would look like a 3-way battle between Casey Carlstrom, Alan Evans and Jonathan Kline. Carlstrom beat Kline by a single second in 17:22 at the 5K in Syracuse in 2017. Evans did not compete in that event but had run 17:18 the year before, when Carlstrom ran 16:59. But at the recent first race in the Pete Glavin Cross Country series, Carlstrom ran 19:10 to Evans’s 17:58, suggesting Cartlstrom may not be at his best. It still seems likely that those three are the ones to beat, although Stephen Crelli and Daniel Mazo may break onto the podium. Crelli clocked 1:03:47 in the Cherry Blossom 10 Mile this year and Mazo has a few 5ks in the low to mid 18’s.

Alan Evans     Jonathan Kline    Casey Carlstrom

After a hiccup in Atlanta, Marisa Sutera Strange was back on her game in Flint. If so, she is certainly the favorite based on her many wins in the 50-54 age group in the last few years. Suzanne Cordes, Lorraine Jasper, Mary Swan and Karyl Sargent should compete for the remaining podium positions. Sargent had the advantage over Jasper by a couple of minutes this year at the 10K in Dedham, but Jasper was a couple of minutes slower than her 2017 performance. Jasper has been focusing on the track recently and is just back from Spain. She should give Sargent a better run for her money in this race. Swan came in two seconds ahead of Sargent in Dedham but was almost a minute back from Jasper and Sargent at Club XC last December. Cordes was almost two minutes back from Jasper and Sargent at Club XC in Lexington last December but has been running stronger recently; she finished 4^th at the 5K in Atlanta in 20:56, one second ahead of Swan.

Marisa Sutera Strange    Suzanne Cordes    Karyl Sargent

60-64 As the earlier preview on race championships made clear, this division is likely to be a dogfight between several contenders. It looks like once the dust settles that Brian Nelson is likely to finish on top of the pile. He had a half minute edge over Mike Anderson in Atlanta, with Anderson having 7 seconds on Reno Stirrat. Eleven seconds later came Timothy Riccardi followed closely by Steve Brumwell and Mark Rybinski. Even though Cross Country races differ from Road Races, there seems no clear basis for suggesting a different order from Atlanta.

Brian Nelson     Mike Anderson     Reno Stirrat

Men's 60+ Field at the start of the 2017 Club XC Championship

Five of the 6 competitors in this division met last year in Lexington at Club XC. Patricia Ford took the honors at that race in 28:40, 15 seconds ahead of Sharon Moore. A minute later, Sharon Ames came across the finished line, followed closely by Susan Stirrat and Cheryl Guth. The remaining runner, Ruth Rainero, ran Club XC the year before, finishing 10 seconds ahead of Moore, but Moore is running better these days, finishing 3^rd in Atlanta in 24:33 last month. Still, Rainero ran a 23:47 and a 24:48 5K earlier this year.

Patricia Ford    Sharon Moore    Ruth Rainero

65-69 Kirk Larson won his first National Championship last month at the 5K in Atlanta in 20:10. He will have to get used to having a target on his back as he is the favorite to make it two this coming weekend. Frank Gioia was almost a minute back in 3^rd. Butch Caimano has run 5K’s from the low 21’s to the low 22 minute range, David Bowen, Doc Rappole, and Hank Schiffman have all run 5Ks in the low to mid 22 minute range.

Kirk Larson     Frank Gioia    Butch Caimano

Sabra Harvey, the 2017 USATF Masters Runner of the Year, returning from the WMA Championships in Spain with 2 gold and 3 silver medals, is the overwhelming favorite to take this championship. If the results of last December’s Club XC Championships are a good indicator, GVH teammates, Cindy Ingalls and Jeanne Herrick should come in 2^nd and 3^rd.

Sabra Harvey [lime green singlet] on her way to another Age-Grading Victory at the 2017 USATF Club XC Championship in Lexington KY

70-74

First is an easy pick here. Gene Dykes has been demolishing his opposition all year since celebrating his birthday by running a sub-3 hour Marathon in Rotterdam a few days later. Among other things he has won the 10K Championship in 39:02, the Half Marathon Championship in 1:26:33 and the 5K Championship in 19:20. And just for good measure recently won his division at the Cayuga Trails 50 Mile Trail Run in 12:22:36. Nothing seems to phase him. After that it gets more complicated with the other likely contenders Lloyd Hansen, Rick Katz, and Terry McCluskey. Dave Glass and Jerry Learned will be right up there as well. Hansen has been improving each month; he finished 2^nd to Dykes at the HM Championship in 1:32:33 and the 5K in 20:45. He is just back from Spain where he won a Bronze Medal in the World Masters Athletics Championships Half Marathon on a hot, humid day. McCluskey has been a few steps behind his teammate, Hansen, finishing 3^rd at the HM in 1:32:46 and in 4^th at the 5K where he clocked 21:54. Katz finished 3^rd at Club XC in the 65-69 division so he is great on the turf. Learned and Glass finished within a half-minute of Katz in that race, so are not that far off. Learned beat McCluskey at the 5K by about 20 seconds but then McCluskey came back and nipped Learned at the finish line in the 1 Mile Championship. Glass was only 9 seconds behind McCluskey at the 5K but had an off day for the 1 Mile, finishing over 20 seconds back.

Gene Dykes    Lloyd Hansen    Rick Katz

Terry Foody finished 2^nd to Harvey in 65-69 at the Cross Country Nationals title at Tallahassee earlier this year in 39:29. None of her rivals ran that race. Her strongest competition may come from Deborah Bliss who finished 2^nd in the USA Age Group Triathlon Championships this year. She also ran a 59:33 10K in April. Leslie Brass who ran 5Ks in the 29:48 to 33:30 range a few years ago, is probably the favorite to finish off the podium.

Deborah Bliss     Terry Foody    Leslie Brass

75-79 Since regaining much of his former fitness, Doug Goodhue, many times age division runner of the year, has again dominated the age division. He won the 5K in Atlanta last month in 22:30. His main rival, Robert Hendrick may still be in Europe after competing in the WMA Championships. In any case he is not competing in Buffalo. In his absence, Jim Assal, Hal Lieberman, and Ron Mastin should have a tight race to sort out the remaining podium spots. Assal ran a 25:23 5K and a 6:38:50 1500 M on the track. Lieberman ran a couple of 28 minute plus 5K XC races last fall and has run miles from 7:19 to 7:54 this summer. Mastin ran 7:22 at the 1 Mile Championships in Flint.

Doug Goodhue    Jim Assal    Ron Mastin

Catherine Radle and Madeline Bost will renew their rivalry; Radle took the honors at the 5K in Atlanta last month.

Catherine Radle    Madeline Bost

80-84 John Elliott captured the 2016 Club XC Championship and, more recently, has run a 29:13 5K and a 49:20 8K. Joe Cordero has run 33-35 minute 5Ks.

John Elliott    Joe Cordero

Tami Graf won the 5K in Atlanta in 38:37. Th elast time Graf and her rival, Edna Hyer met, Graf took the honors by a few minutes.

Tami Graf    Edna Hyer

85-89 Eric Sieff is unopposed and will take the championship when he finishes the race.

Eric Sieff

TEAMS

40+

Men. GVH and Garden State Track Club appear to be closely matched, with Checkers AC, Greater Philly, and Willow Street AC forming a second tier that is also closely matched. Exactly how they fall out will depend on many individual battles. Garden State has locked up the Grand Prix title so that may mean GVH will have the edge. If Jonathan Frieder can run anywhere near his normal pace, he should be first runner in. But then it is very likely that GVH’s Kirt Komocki and Tim Rieth will come in before GSTC’s #2 and #3 runners. Then it will depend on the fight between Shawn Williams and Thomas Knowles, of GSTC, and their counterparts on GVH, Josh Harter and Thomas Regan. It is likely that a few points resulting from individual contests will be the difference between Checkers, Greater Philly and Willow Street

GVH    GSTC    Greater Philadelphia Track Club

Women. Sonja Friend-Uhl and Jill Braley are a strong 1-2 punch in the team competition and Kathy Wiegand should not be far back for Atlanta. That should be enough for them to take the win. GVH and the Greater Philadelphia Track Club are closely matched. If Heather Webster and Murphee Hayes run their strongest they could lead GVH to a 2^nd place finish. But Greater Philly may be able to bring all 3 of their runners in before GVH’s 3^rd runner comes in. The Impala Racing Team is strong but not as strong as the other three.

Atlanta Track Club    GVH    Greater Philadelphia Track Club

50+

Men. The Central Park Track Club and GVH should battle it out for the win. If Adam Engst, Alan Evans, and Mike Nier are on their game, GVH should eke out a win. But CPTC’s trio of David Dorsey, Brad Kelley, and Mark Lindrud should make it tough. If the top 3 of either team has an off day, Dale Flanders is probably a bit faster for GVH than the 4^th runner for CPTC. Checkers AC and the Greater Philadelphia Track Club are the main contenders for the final podium spot, with Checkers a slight favorite.

GVH    Central Park TC    Checkers AC

Women. If Marisa Sutera Strange, Lorraine Jasper, and Mary Swan run their usual races, the Athena Track Club should win handily. On paper, the top 3 for the Syracuse Track Club, Karyl Sargent, Patricia Ford, and Sharon Ames, have a slight edge on the GVH top 3, Beth Ann DeCiantis, Bonnie Lindblom, and Maureen Bischoff. One thing that might play in GVH’s favor is that they have a 4^th runner, Colleen Magnussen, not far behind those top 3. If any of Syracuse’s top 3 have an off day, there is no one to step up. Checkers AC and Atlanta appear headed for off-podium finishes.

Athena Track Club    GVH    Syracuse Track Club

60+

Men. The Hartford Track Club’s Russell Blatt, George Buchanan, and John Matthews need good outings; if they get them Hartford, should win the division. It will not be easy though. Cal Coast is the team most likely to press them for the win. Their 3-runner team of Brian Nelson, Steve Brumwell, and Keith Witthauer cannot afford a let-down either; all three need to run their best. GVH and Shore AC will duke it out for the final podium spot if there are no off days among the runners of Hartford and Cal Coast. GVH’s Tim Riccardi, Mark Rybinski and Kevin Clinefelter appear to have a slight edge over Shore’s Reno Stirrat, Kevin Dollard, and Scott Linnell. GVH and Shore both have an additional runner or two if any of their top 3 run into a problem; GVH’s Frank Gioia is the 4^th runner closest to #3.

Hartford Track Club    Cal Coast Track Club    GVH

Women. The GVH team of Cheryl Guth, Jeanne Herrick, Cindy Ingalls, and Sharon Moore is unopposed and cashes in the win as long as at least three of their team finish the race. The pressure is off.

GVH

70+

Men. The Ann Arbor Track Club has won the last three Championship races, the Half Marathon, the 5K, and the 1 Mile and they (we, in this case as your author is on this team) are favored for this win as well. Lloyd Hansen, Doug Goodhue and Terry McCluskey have led the way for those wins. I have not been needed but have provided good enough backup that had any of those top 3 been unable to run, AATC would still have won all 3 of those races. That should be the case again on Sunday, but we shall see. Unlike those other races, Hansen will not be finishing first among the team entrants if the Greater Philadelphia Track Club’s Gene Dykes enjoys a typical race. But, unless the AATC runners have serious off days, they should all come in ahead of the next two Greater Philly Track Club runners, and so have a winning score. The Atlanta Track Club and the Genesee Valley Harriers will also push for a podium finish. Atlanta’s hopes rest on Dave Glass and Jerry Learned finishing ahead of all 3 of AATC’s runners except Hansen. Hansen has come in ahead of both of them in the last three races. If he does that again, it is hard, but not impossible, for Atlanta to get the win. But either Sam Benedict or Curtis Walker have to finish closer to those two than has been the case recently. GVH has to rely on Tony Gingello and Jim May leading the way. But May has not run in the last few championship races; that would usually mean he is not at top fitness. May is a very tough runner, often running when hurt. As long as May runs a reasonably strong race, GVH will have the depth needed to see off the challenge from Greater Philly. Atlanta should also have enough depth to withstand the challenge. GVH’s main chance to beat Atlanta requires May to run with Gingello, with both having very good days.

Ann Arbor Track Club    Atlanta Track Club    GVH

Women. The Atlanta Track Club’s team of Leslie Brass, Judy Melton, Catherine Radle, and Carol Rhodes is unopposed. Like their counterparts in Women’s 60+, as soon as the third team member crosses the finish line, Atlanta will be the winner.

Atlanta Track Club

Preview of 2018 Masters 5km Cross Country Championships-Preview 1—Championship Races and Age-Grading

September 19, 2018. The 2018 edition of the 5 Km Masters Cross Country Championship comes to Delaware Park in Buffalo NY on Sunday, September 23^rd. The site of numerous Cross Country Championships, it has hosted such events since the 1901 Pan-Am Expo. The races will be run on a 2500 Meter all-grass loop with each Masters Championship race covering two loops. There will be four Masters races, Men’s 40+, Men’s 50+, Men’s 60+, and Women’s 40+. Cash Prizes go to the winner of each of these 4 Championship races. Cash prizes and medals will be awarded to the athlete with the highest age-grading score in each of the 3 Men’s races and to the top 3 athletes in the Women’s race. Team prizes and medals will also be awarded. Because there are 3 separate races for Men, the usual rules on ages govern. As an example, a 52-year-old man who is to run on a 40+ team must run in the 40+ race, and thereby forfeits any opportunity to win an individual Men’s 50-54 medal and to accumulate points toward the Masters Grand Prix standings in his age division, 50-54. There are no such complications for the Women who all run in a single race; a 52-year-old woman may score for a 40+ team and win a 50-54 age division medal because she is in the same race as all other competitors for those prizes.

The Men’s 60+ race goes off at 11 AM, followed by Men’s 50+ at 11:30 AM, Women’s 40+ at 12 Noon, and Men’s 40+ at 12:45 PM. The Awards Ceremony and Party are at the Park starting at 1:30 PM. The weather forecast calls for scattered thunderstorms to come through on Friday. That leaves Saturday cloudy and Sunday partly cloudy with temperatures in the low 60’s for the Men’s 60+ race and gradually rising to the mid-60’s for the 4^th race. With reasonable luck, any sogginess from the predicted 0.19 inches of rain, will have gone away and the course conditions will be as good as the weather—near perfect! Over 200 Masters Runners will converge on Delaware Park to contest the championships.

One other thing. Every runner in the Masters Championship will also be contributing in a complicated way to the scoring for the Can-Am Challenge Cup and possession of the Farquharson-Glavin Cup. Appropriately aged runners from the Community races may also be incorporated into the scoring. Just know that, in addition to running for your team or individually in the USATF Masters Championship, you are also running for the honor of your country. The US currently trails Canada in the series, 12-18. It would be good to start making inroads into their lead. For details on the Challenge, please direct your browser to:

https://usatf.org/usatf/files/7f/7f79f6a3-27e5-4026-bc7d-9fd0ccfb49b5.pdf

First let us look at the contests to win each of the four races and then the Age-Grading. All previews and predictions are based on the entries known at the time of going to press. I will follow the order of competition.

Men’s 60+

If we look to Cross Country Nationals at Tallahassee earlier this year for guidance, we find that the top 2 Men’s 60-64 runners from that race, Rick Becker and Ken Youngers, are not entered, but several other top-8 finishers from that race are entered: Mike Anderson 3^rd, Reno Stirrat 5^th, Kevin Dollard 6^th, and Nate Anderson, 8^th. Mark Rybinski, who was in the top group before being sidelined by a recurring hamstring issue over the last year and a half or so, is running well again and could factor into the race for first. Guidance might also come from the Masters 5K Road Championship in Atlanta. 

Mike Anderson finishing strong at the USATF Masters 5K Championship in Atlanta [Gene Dykes is the figure in blue in the background] --Photo Credit-Michael Scott

As that race is more recent it should provide a better snapshot of current fitness, keeping in mind that the best road runner is not always the best Cross Country racer and vice versa. The story is similar with a few wrinkles. Among those entered here, Anderson came in 7 seconds ahead of Stirrat, who was followed by Timothy Riccardi and Steve Brumwell, 11 and 19 seconds back. Rybinski was 5 seconds behind Brumwell, followed 12 seconds later by Dollard and N. Anderson a second back. But Brian Nelson from Cal Coast came in almost half a minute ahead of M. Anderson. 

Brian Nelson, Cal Coast, striding around the corner, heading for the finish line a the USATF Masters 5K Championships in Atlanta [Photo by Michael Scott]

Robert Reynolds, who ran 31:32 in the Rothman 8K last fall and has a 40:53 10K this year, could factor into the podium race as well. We should not ignore Gene Dykes, from the 70+ division. At the 5K Road Championships in Atlanta, he was only 6 seconds back from M. Anderson and a second ahead of Stirrat. Although Dykes runs in lots of long-distance trail races, as far as I know, this will be his first foray into a national level Cross Country event. He has run in a local Philly Cross Country race and in the Delaware Open XC race a few years ago. But Dykes seems equally happy on every surface; there is no reason to think Cross Country will phase him. He should land just off the podium or on it.

Brian Nelson    Mike Anderson     Reno Stirrat     

Men’s 50+

Using the same approach, consider first Cross Country National’s results for the 50-54 group. Ordinarily we would just write in the top runners for the Greater Springfield Harriers but so far none of them are entered. With the Masters Grand Prix tittle all wrapped up, they can pick and choose their races. Cal Coast’s Thomas Schumann was the highest finisher that day who is entered today. GVH’s Dale Flanders was 23 seconds back. What about the recent 5K Championships in Atlanta? Any clues there? Adam Engst finished 42 seconds ahead of Flanders who finished 7 seconds ahead of Schumann. 

Adam Engst, airborne and headed for the finish at the USATF Masters 5K Championships in Atlanta [Photo by Michael Scott]

That is the only extra information from there. What about Club Cross Country last December. From there we learn that Alan Evans from the 55-59 division finished 23 seconds ahead of Schumann who came in about a minute ahead of Flanders. The most recent Championship is the 1 Mile Road Championship in Flint. From there we can see that Charles Novak has some fast wheels, finishing 2^nd overall and first in the 50-54 age division. Perhaps more significantly, he won the 800 Meter Run Gold Medal for the age division at Malaga, Spain in the World Championships last week, clocking 2:03.42! If he is anywhere near the front with a couple of hundred meters to go, watch out! Another runner to consider is Tim Van Orden who is active on the New England Road Racing, Mountain Trail and Snow Shoeing circuits. It has been a couple of years since he has run for the Central Mass Striders in a National Championship. In the 2016 Club Cross Country Championship in Tallahassee he finished 7^th in the M45 division and ran 8 seconds faster than Kent Lemme that year. Even if one argues that Lemme was not running quite as strongly in 2016 as he has been in 2017 and 2018, that is a hefty credential. He has run mostly trail and mountain races this year but he recently turned in a 28:43 in winning his age division at the Bridge of Flowers 8K and clocked 1:00:14 in finishing 2^nd to the BAA’s Andy Gardiner in a NH 10 Miler. Novak has no recent cross country races so that lack of familiarity could keep him off the podium. But you can never count out a world champion! Mike Nier entered today, September 19. He will surely factor in the race for the 50+ title, most likely by displacing his teammate, Evans, who has typically been a few steps behind at recent events shorter than the Marathon. 

Mike Nier cruising at the end of the first loop at 2018 Cross Country Nationals in Tallahassee in February [Photo by Michael Scott]

Nier's most recent National Championship race is the Half Marathon where he demonstrated his range with a 1:20:21 winning effort.

Tim Van Orden     Adam Engst     Mike Nier

Women’s 40+

At first glance, the names that jump out are Abby Dean and Sonja Friend-Uhl from the 45-49 division and Marisa Sutera Strange from the 55-59 division. At Cross Country Nationals last February in Tallahassee, Friend-Uhl took 3^rd overall in the Women’s race in the Masters division. 

Sonja Friend-Uhl, driving to the finish and 3rd place overall at 2018 Cross Country Nationals in Tallahassee in February [Photo by Michael Scott]

Strange finished 4^th nearly a minute back, with Dean finishing another 50 seconds back. 

Marisa Sutera Strange strides toward her eventual 4th place finish at the 2018 Cross Country National Championships in Tallahassee in February [Photo by Michael Scott]

But in the 5K this past month, Friend-Uhl had only 27 seconds on Dean at the end of the race. Strange, on what was clearly an off day, finished 2 minutes behind Dean. 

Abby Dean heading for a top 6 overall finish in a loaded field at the 2018 USATF Masters 5K Championships in Atlanta [Photo by Michael Scott]

But at the Road Mile Masters Championships in Flint, strange showed it was a one-off problem as she finished 5^th overall. Who from the 40-44 division might challenge these three? Heather Webster finished 3^rd,  44 seconds behind Strange at the 8K Championships in Virginia Beach and 50 seconds behind her at the 10K Championships. Further back, she bested Strange by 5 seconds to take 3^rd overall at the 2016 Club XC Championships in Tallahassee; since then it has been all Strange. Liz Gottlieb and Kathy Wiegand always run strong for Impala and Atlanta respectively, but it would be a stretch for either to land on the overall podium.

Sonja Friend-Uhl    Abby Dean    Marisa Sutera Strange    

Men 40+

Kevin Castille is the heavy favorite. As his chief challenger, David Angell has put it, “Once Castille shows up, everyone else is pretty much running for 2^nd place.” Castille’s most recent appearance at a Cross Country national Championship was earlier this year in Tallahassee at Cross Country Nationals where he took the overall Masters title by over 3 minutes! Castille’s recent races include Masters wins at the AJC Peachtree Road Race (10K) in 30:06 and at the Utica Boilermaker (15K) in 45:36. 

Kevin Castille enjoys a commanding lead at the end of the 2nd loop at the 2018 USATF Cross Country National Championship in Tallahassee in February [Photo by Michael Scott]

Angell is having a very strong year with wins at the 8K, 10K and 5K Masters National Championships, and there is no reason to think anyone other than Castille will be ahead of him for very long in this race. 

David Angell captures the Overall Win at the 2018 USATF Masters 5K Championships in Atlanta [Photo by Jason Getz, getzimages.com]

Jonathan Frieder and Philippe Rolly can stay with him for the early stages but typically Angell can throw in a surge and create a gap which he can then hold until the end. At the 8K this year, Angell finished 18 seconds ahead of Rolly and half a minute ahead of Frieder. At the 10K, Angell had a minute on Rolly and another 3 seconds on Frieder. But Angell’s gaps on the Cross Country course have been larger, with Frieder over a minute back at Club XC last December, and over half a minute at the 5K Masters at Boston that fall. Frieder has been closing in on Rolly on the roads but Cross Country is a surface that Frieder needs to show he can handle at the same high level. 

Jonathan Frieder heads for the finish line and a 7th place finish in the 2018 USATF Masters 10K Championship in Dedham MA in April [Photo by Michael Scott]

The one meeting I can find for Rolly and Frieder on the turf was the Club XC at Tallahassee in December 2016 where Rolly had over a minute on Frieder at the finish.

Kevin Castille    David Angell    Philippe Rolly

Age Grading

Men’s 40+ Although there are a number of strong runners in the division, it would be a major upset if anyone other than Kevin Castille took the top age-grading prize in this race. In road races, Castille regularly outpoints his rivals by a number of percentage points and it should be no different this coming Sunday. In the unlikely event that Castille runs into difficulty or cannot make the event, the others most likely to feature are Jonathan Frieder and Philippe Rolly. 

Philippe Rolly strides toward the finish and 6th place overall at the 2018 USATF Masters 10K Championship in Dedham MA in April [Photo by Michael Scott]

Frieder outpointed Rolly in both the 8K and 10K races this year.

Kevin Castille

Men’s 50+

The last time Casey Carlstrom, 59, ran the 5K in Syracuse he achieved a 90.45% age grade with a 17:22. Jonathan Kline,58, just ran 17:34 at the Percy Sutton Harlem 5K. That age grades at 89.47%. If Charles Novak, 51, can match the sub-17 5K efforts he turned it at local races in the spring, he, too, could be age grading right with Carlstrom and Kline. His 2^nd place finish at the Masters Road Mile Championship age graded at 88.67%. 

Chuck Novak in full stride, heading for the finish line and 2nd place overall at the 2018USATF Masters 1 Mile Championship in Flint MI in August [Photo by Carter Sherline, Frog Prince Studios]

Tim Harte’s, 50, 27:20 at the Rothmann Institute 8K last fall would put him just a tick below those three. I am using these times for comparative purposes; Cross Country races typically have lower age grade scores because of footing and other vagaries of the sport. Some runners almost always run better on the turf than on the roads and vice versa. Still, these four appear the strongest contenders for the Men’s 50+ Age-Grading.

Casey Carlstrom

Men’s 60+.

Gene Dykes has age graded above 90% every time out this year at a National Championship. In the 8K he graded 91.7% with a 92.53% at the 10K-none who beat him are entered in this race. 

Gene Dykes finishes off a cold run in Dedham MA with a smile as he claims 2nd place overall in the Men's competition at the 2018 USATF Masters 10K Championship [Photo by Michael Scott]

Brian Nelson, 61, turned in an 85.72 in Atlanta, with Reno Stirrat,64, and Doug Goodhue, 76, right behind him. 

Doug Goodhue [#149] looks ahead with satisfaction to the finish line, taking yet another of his more than 50 National Championships in his division at the 2018 USATF Masters 5K Championships in Atlanta [Photo by Michael Scott]

Should Dykes run into trouble, one of those three would be likely to take his place.

Women 40+

Sabra Harvey, 69, the 2017 USATF Masters Runner of the Year, enters as a strong favorite. In her road races, she is almost always close to a 100% age grade score, and sometimes over. Fresh from winning two Gold Medals (6K XC and 5000 Meters) and 3 Silver Medals at the World Masters Athletics Championships, there is little doubt she is primed to run her usual amazing race. 

Sabra Harvey cruising gat the end of the first loop on her way to Age-Grading Gold at the 2018  USATF Cross Country National Championship in Tallahassee in February [Photo by Michael Scott]

Marisa Sutera Strange appears to be back on her game after a hiccup in Atlanta for the 5K Championship. Her age grade at the Road Mile Championship in Flint 6 days later was 94.17%. Suzanne Cordes, who is entered here, was not that far behind Strange at Flint, scoring 91.18%. 

Suzanne Cordes focuses all her energy on getting to the finish line ahead of her rivals at the 2018 USATF Masters 5K Championships in Atlanta [Photo by Michael Scott]

Katherine Wolski, 52, turned in an 18:55 in Atlanta to score an 89.28% ahead of Cordes. 

Katherine Wolski holding nothing back as she heads for the Finish at the 2018 USATF Masters 5K Championships in Atlanta [Photo by Michael Scott]

Sonja Friend-Uhl, 47, was just a percentage point and a half behind Wolski and finished about a point ahead of Cordes. Still, I have to go with Wolski over Friend-Uhl in Age Grading. Even in 2016 when Friend-Uhl won Club Cross Country, Wolski outpointed her on Age-Grading. But one should never be too sure as Friend-Uhl is tough on the turf.

Sabra Harvey    Marisa Sutera Strange    Katherine Wolski

That is it for Race Championships and Age-Grading Champions--some close and some apparently clear cut. Next we have to actually run the races--should be exciting!

Next up will be Age Division  and Team Championship previews.