September 22 2017.
It is 9 days now to Race Day, this will be my first posted preview of the Age
Divisions from 60-64 through 95-99. As of 11 pm on Thursday, September
21st, we had exactly 100 entrants in these Age Divisions along with 133 between the ages of 40 and 59 for 233 total
entrants. The previews may be updated depending on information received and/or who else enters between now and Race Day
AGE DIVISIONS
60-64
Men Last year Brian Pilcher not
only dominated the division, he smashed the American Record by running 16:38
(net). The very next weekend he broke the Half Marathon, 25K and 30K records on
the way to tying the Marathon record for Men 60-64. By January he was
experiencing some pain in his foot that interrupted his training. He
nonetheless ran in the Masters 8K Championship and came within 7 seconds of the
record. Shortly thereafter the problem was diagnosed as a stress fracture;
Pilcher took the next few months off before resuming training. His fitness is
coming along slowly; he will not be in condition to threaten the record this
year but is attending to pay his respects to Dave Oja and the Syracuse FoR in
their last year of hosting the championships. Nonetheless Pilcher reckons he
might be able to run something like a 17:20. If so, he is still a favorite for
the podium and maybe to take the title again.
 |
| Brian Pilcher pounding out the rhythm on his way to a 16:38 Men's 60-64 American Record at the 2016 USATF Masters 5K Championship at the Syracuse Festival of Races [Photo by Gavin Liddell] |
Last year Pilcher was the only
one in the division to break 18 minutes. Tom
Ryan finished 2nd in 18:14 and he returns, as well as Kyle Hubbart who finished 3rd,
just a few seconds behind Ryan. Ryan ran 18:17 in a small, local 5K in
September; in July he had a 19:08. Hubbart seems to be running about as fast as
he did in 2016 and has a knack for winding up on the podium. He has finished 3rd
in the division in the 8K, 10K, and 1 Mile, the 3 races he has entered. Who
else might contend? Can anyone else break 18:00? The three most likely are Charlie Andrews who ran 17:31 last year
when he was still in the 55-59 division, Ken
Youngers, and Tom Dever. Andrews
has not run a fast 5K recently but he did run a 38:50 10K in June, roughly
equivalent to a high 18 minute 5K. Youngers ran 17:35 here in 2015, and then
missed 2016. He has been through surgery and recovery and seems ready to push
the pace again. He finished 2nd to Dever in the Masters Road Mile
Championship. It is worth mentioning that the 17:35 in 2015 was 46 seconds
slower than his time here in 2014. If he has recovered his 2014 fitness, a
16:49 for a 57 year old is age-grade equivalent to a 17:14 for a 60 year old. The
Macon Labor Day 5K is a fast race, no doubt, but Youngers just clocked a 17:08
there. That suggests he might well be able to get under 17:30 on the Syracuse
course. Dever has an 18:25 and an 18:48 to his credit but he is likely still
improving after losing some time to surgery and rehab. He might be able to
break 18:00 but it would be surprising if he broke it by much. He had a 17:48 and
a 17:57 in the fall of 2015. Still, he was ahead of Youngers at Flint by 5
seconds; that suggests he should still be ahead in Syracuse. It will be
fascinating to see.
Brian Pilcher Thomas Dever Ken Youngers
Women There is no overwhelming favorite entered
at this point. The strongest candidates for a gold medal appear to be Nora Cary and Patrice Combs. Cary finished 2nd to Nancy Stewart in the division last year in 20:30. Combs finished 5th
in the 55-59 division in 20:36.
 |
| Patrice Combs [2nd from R] and Margaret Taylor [2nd from L] with Ken Youngers [L] and Jeff Haertl [R] at the 2017 Macon Labor Day Race [Photo posted on FB by M. Taylor] |
Earlier this summer, Cary appeared to run about
half a minute slower than last year. But that difference can be illusory as
conditions vary from year to year. Others who can contend include teammates, Mo Bartley and Jill Miller-Robinett of the Impala Racing team. Miller-Robinett finished 3rd last
year in 21:53; Bartley, who did not compete last year, has generally been about
30 seconds faster than Miller-Robinett in races of 8K to 10K Cynthia Williams and Margaret Taylor were 4h and 5th
last year in 22:48 and 23:01 but Taylor has had the edge over her teammate this
year at the 8K and 10K Championships. Taylor just ran a 22:24 at the Macon
Labor Day 5k. But they will need their best race of the year to break onto the
podium.
Nora Cary Patrice Combs Mo Bartley
65-69
Women This one is easy to
pick based on current entrants. Sabra
Harvey, current World Record holder of track records for the 800 and 1500
meters, has won every road race she has entered this year. It could get
interesting though if Kathy Martin,
who has faster times this year at races 10K and up and who set the American 5K
record here last year, would enter. Edie
Stevenson who ran faster than the listed American 10 Mile record at the
Cherry Blossom race this spring, should be the fastest of the rest. She
finished second to Martin last year in 21:56. She has been running even
stronger this year with a 21:39 at Freihofers in June and a 21:36 in August.
 |
| Edie Stevenson on her way to a 2nd place finish in Women's 65-69 at the 2017 USATF Masters 10K Championship at the James Joyce Ramble |
Coreen Steinbach, Nonie Hudnall and Jo Anne Rowland finished within 27
seconds of one anther last year in 3rd, 4th, and 5th.
Steinbach appears to be on pace to match last year’s effort as she ran a 23:57
5K in July. Hudnall’s 5K’s have been a bit slower, in the 24:12 to 25 minute
range but, of course, different courses can be more and less challenging.
Rowland was out of action for a few months so may not be quite at the fitness
level she had last year. Cindy Ingalls
might be in the mix; on the comeback trail in the spring, and trying to regain
her sub-23 5K fitness, I looked for significant improvement over the summer.
But I cannot find any race results for her.
Sabra Harvey Edie Stevenson Coreen Steinbach
Men This division looks to be a repeat
of earlier Championships. Tom Bernhard,
Peter Mullin, Doug Bell and Kirk
Larson have been coming in 1-2-3-4 all year. Will someone upset the apple
cart this time? Last year Bernhard
broke the American record for men 65-69 with a 17:32 [17:31 net]. He has not
reached that level of fitness this year; he was a minute slower at the Morgan
Hill 5K this summer compared to 2016. Still, he had not trouble coming in first
at the 1 Mile Championship in Flint Michigan about 8 seconds ahead of Mullin.
Mullin finished 2nd last year in 18:14 with a 17 second gap on Bell,
who had almost a minute on Larson.
 |
| Tom Bernhard headed to victory in Men's 65-69 at the 2017 USATF 10K Masters Championship at the James Joyce Ramble |
Cross
Country Ace, Chuck Smead, Bell’s
Boulder Road Runners teammate, could make things interesting but his chances
for the podium are slim with Bernhard, Mullin and Bell in the race.
Tom Bernhard Peter Mullin Doug Bell
70-74
Men This
is my division. Even though I have finished 1st or 2nd in
every race entered this year, from 1 Mile up to the Half Marathon, I will be
pressed to make the podium. Jim May,
who won the 8K, Tony Gingello, who
took Gold at the 10K, and Harold Nolan, who
won the 1 mile championship last month, are all entered. On top of that, Dave Glass, who finished 2nd
in this race last year in 20:16, has recovered from a spring injury and is
running about as fast as he did last summer in the run up to Syracuse. He ran
the Silk and Satins 5K in 21:04 this July; last year it was 21:29. And that’s
only the competition among those already entered. Bill Dixon aged up from 65-69 this year. He does not run this race
every year but when he does, he typically enters this race in the last few days
before the race. If he would show up, Dixon would be a heavy favorite; he has
an 18:50 5K and a 33:30 Five miler to his credit this year. Last year Przemek Nowicki and I finished in 4th
and 5th behind May in 21:37 and 21:38. This year Nowicki is on the comeback
trail and will be pressed to run under 22. I am essentially fully recovered but
my fitness is not where it was a few years back. I hope to break 21 this year
but 20:30 may be a bridge too far. May sustained a cross country skiing injury
in late March; he ran a game 10K in the Championship at Dedham but had to
struggle across the finish line. He has no race results since then so I suspect
he will just be running to help his team out. Nolan is a middle distance specialist but he
ran 21:43 at the Asbury Park 5K, a race he ran in 23:21 last year. He may be
primed to make a run at a 21:00. Gingello’s 10K’s are a bit off where he was in
the spring and his 5K’s are about a minute slower than they need to be to make
the podium. But he showed in Dedham what a fierce competitor he is! I’ll make
Glass the favorite, Gingello 2nd and me third but it will b e a
killer of a race, no doubt. [I can’t pick Bill Dixon unless he enters.]
 |
| Dave Glass claims the Silver Medal in Men's 70-74 at the 2016 USATF Masters 5K Championship in Syracuse NY |
And now
Jan Frisby,who has been waiting in
the wings for the last year or so, will turn up having lost that extra weight
that he says has been slowing him down, and may make us all look slow.
Dave Glass Tony Gingello Paul Carlin
Women Two athletes
are entered in this division, the American record holder, Jan Holmquist and Dianne
Anderson. Needless to say, event though she is the defending champion, Anderson will be happy to compete for her team
and enjoy the race. Holmquist is gradually returning to the form she enjoyed in
2015 when she last broke the women’s 70-74 record, but she is still probably the better part of a minute away. She
ran the Beach to Beacon 10K this summer about a minute slower than in 2015, but
a 48:23 10K is nothing to sneeze at.
Jan Holmquist Dianne Anderson
75-79
Women There are three entrants at the moment, Madeline Bost, Christa Maier, and Fran Rowe, who appear to be pretty well
matched. Two years ago, Bost had the edge, winning in
34:21; Rowe finished 3rd in 36:05. But Bost was not able to compete
in 2016 and Rowe took 2nd in 35:54. Furthermore, Rowe ran 37:52 in
the Tops Run for Roswell in late August, and that is over a minute faster than
she ran the race in 2016.
 |
| Fran Rowe (L) just edges Estelle Hahn (R) for 2nd place in Women's 75-79 at the 2016 USATF Masters 5K Championship in Syracuse NY |
Bost ran 37:40 at a Labor Day 5K but just a month
earlier ran 38:40 and 39:46. Maier’s 5K times have been in line with Bost’s
slower two times and those are about a minute slower than she ran in 2016.
Fran Rowe Madeline Bost Christa Maier
Men Doug
Goodhue, the Silver Bullet from the Ann
Arbor Track Club, is back from injury. At the 1 Mile Championship in Flint
Michigan, he showed that he has regained much of his speed. He took the Age
Division Gold Medal in 6:17. Equally important, he showed the next morning in
the Crim 10 Miler, that he also has regained much of his endurance base. He won
his age division there in 1:13:41!
Goodhue should crack 21 at Syracuse. No one else in the division can approach
those times. George Tooker won the
division last year in 25:13, with Tony
Fiori second in 26:14. William Ash,
Fiory’s Clifton Roadrunners teammate, clocked 25:39 in the 70-74 division. But
Fiory beat him handily in the 8K Masters Championship this March
 |
| Doug Goodhue heading to the tape to win Men's 70-74 Gold in 20:07 at the 2015 USATF Masters 5K Championship at the Syracuse Festival of Races |
Doug Goodhue George Tooker Tony Fiori
80-84
Men Wade Stockman is the
defending champion; he won last year in 31:16. It appears that Jim Askew has the edge this year. Fresh
off his win at the 1 Mile Road Championship, Askew also has a 28:51 5K to his
credit from this June.
 |
| Jim Askew captures the Gold Medal in Men's 80-84 at the 2017 USATF Masters Road Mile Championship |
Stockman is the clear favorite for 2nd place
although his 5K time this summer suggests he may be a bit slower than last year.
Steven Fuchs and Sam Graceffo appear to be pretty evenly
matched. The one who has the better Race Day should get the final podium
position. Both have run their 5K’s in the 37 to 38 minute range this year.
Fuchs also ran a sub-48 minute four miler in August, which age-grading suggests
is roughly equivalent to a 36:03 5K. Based on that, I
will give Fuchs the edge for the bronze medal.
Jim Askew Wade Stockman Steven Fuchs
Women Tami Graf and Edna Hyer will renew their friendly rivalry in this division. Graf
took 2nd in 35:02 last year, behind record-breaking Libby James. James is ill unfortunately
and will not make the race this year. That makes Graf the favorite. Hyer took 4th
place in 39:37. Their races this summer suggest they are both in about the same
fitness they enjoyed last year.
Tami Graf Edna Hyer
85-89
Women Anny Stockman who moved up in age divisions after
finishing 3rd in 80-84 last year with a 38:13 clocking, is
unopposed.
 |
| Anny Stockman running in the Mohawk River Valley [Photo Credit: giacalonephotos.wordpress.com] |
The only suspense at this point is whether she can break the
American record for the division.
Anny Stockman
Men David Rider bested two rivals last year to
take the Gold Medal in 35:32. Unless a challenger or two shows up in the next
week, he will defend his championship with ease. He ran a 37:06 5K in April;
replicating that would be more than sufficient.
David Rider
95-99
Men This is the first time in my memory of the 5K
Masters Championship that we have had an entrant in this division. Roy Englert of the Potomac Valley
Association ran a 43:34 in the Senior Games 5K in Birmingham AL this June.
 |
| Roy Englert poses with some of his many medals for a NY Times story when he was 91 [Photo: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/24/sports/24macur.html] |
If he can approach that time again, not only
will he win the Gold Medal, he will break the American Record.
As always any predictions are offered in a spirit of fun, understanding that fitness on Race Day is variable and cannot be known in advance. Have a great run everyone!
Next-Preview No. 3 is the Records Watch!
No comments:
Post a Comment