Saturday, February 27, 2016

2016 USATF Masters Grand Prix Heads to Southern California--Race Preview



February 25 2016. BREA California—After an exciting and challenging start to the season in Bend Oregon 3 weeks ago, Elite Masters Long Distance Runners turn their attention to the 2nd event of the Masters Grand Prix, the USATF 8K Championship in Southern California’s Orange County.  At the close of online registration, 229 of the fastest Masters Long Distance Runners in the country are entered in the race which is conducted as part of the 25th running of the Brea Classic. Onsite registration could push the totals closer to 250 by race time. Runners will be chasing $10,000 in prize money when they toe the line at 7:30 am this Sunday, February 28.And the weather forecast is near perfect--upper 50's to low 60's during the race with light winds.

Overall.
Men. The Overall Men’s race to see who finishes first across the line features a rematch between Pasadena’s, Jacques Sallberg and Oregon’s Gregory Mitchell. They met at the USA Masters Cross Country Championship in Bend Oregon at the beginning of February with Sallberg taking the gold to Mitchell’s silver.  In 2015 Sallberg took the Cross Country crown in Boulder Colorado but Mitchell got his revenge by claiming the 8K Road crown in Brea. Will the 2015 pattern be repeated or will Sallberg make it 2 for 2 in 2016? And can anyone else stay with them? Neville Davey is one. He split Mitchell and Sallberg at Club Cross this past December. And he was only 11 seconds back from Mitchell; can he do better this time? Kristian Blaich who won 3 overall Masters Road crowns in 2015 at the 5K, 10K, and 12K is coming from Georgia to give it a try. But it may be asking a lot; Blaich was not able to stay with these three at Club Cross. [Late note: Blaich is not listed as one of the3  Atlanta 40+ team members. Perhaps he is a scratch.] If he is recovered from a hamstring issue that slowed him in Bend, John Gardiner is another runner who could factor overall if any of the others has an off day. Mitchell, Sallberg, Davey

On the Women’s side, Grace Padilla tries to make it two in a row as she seeks to duplicate her overall victory at the Masters Cross Country Championship. Nancy Ellis who only trailed Padilla by 15 seconds at Club Cross will try to close the gap. Tania Fischer will also challenge as she was only ten seconds behind Ellis at Club Cross. Should any of those three falter, Cindy Abrami who took 2nd to Padilla at the Bend XC race, could factor. Julie Ertel could also challenge for the podium; she was only 20 seconds behind Fischer last year at this 8K race. Donna Mills-Honarvar is a wild card in that she is an accomplished half marathoner and marathoner who took 3rd in her age group at the Rock n Roll Philadelphia half Marathon in 1:20:21. But she does not run many races as short as 8K so may not have the sheer speed to stay with the others. Padilla, Ellis, Fischer.

Age Division Contests.

M40. See above as Mitchell, Davey, Sallberg and Gardiner are all in this group. Mitchell, Sallberg, Davey.

W40. See above. Padilla, Ellis, Ertel and Mills-Honarvar are all in W40. Padilla, Ellis, Ertel.

M45. Kristian Blaich, Christian Cushing-Murray, and Jerome Vermeulen are the headliners here. They last met at Club Cross where Cushing-Murray took Blaich’s measure by 2 seconds, with Vermeulen 20 seconds back. But that was Cross Country and a slightly longer distance. Blaich took 3 road championships last year and may be better on the roads than on the XC course. That may also be true for Vermeulen and, although 8K is not that much less than 10K, Vermeulen has shown impressive fast twitch muscles in finishing a very tight 2nd to Greg Mitchell’s 1st in the USATF 1 Mile Championships in Flint, Michigan last year. It should be a mighty entertaining race.

W45. Tania Fischer, the defending champion, is the favorite with Cindy Abrami who finished 3rd last year picked for 2nd. Nathalie Higley who finished 20 seconds behind Abrami in the 2014 edition of the USATF 8K should be solid for 3rd. Others who could factor in include Desa Mandarino, who recently took the W45 bronze medal at the Cross Country Championships at Bend. Based on their performances at Club Cross in San Francisco, Kerry May and Mary Lynch will also be pushing the pace. Fischer, Abrami, Higley.

M50. Last year Francis Burdett made an early West Coast swing, winning the USA XC and Brea 8K M50 contests to get an early leg up on the USATF Grand Prix. Burdett stayed home in Massachusetts for the USA XC but will he be looking to fly over the 8K like last year. He clocked 26:50 to take the M50 title by 22 seconds over David Olds. But by the time Club Cross rolled around in December, Burdett was not up to the promise of February. Which Burdett will we see on Sunday? The favorite, no doubt, must be Carl Combs. Since turning 50 and discovering the USATF circuit, he has won Club Cross and the USA XC M50 Championships. Last year he ran 53 seconds faster than Burdett at Brea but was in the M45 division. Rob Arsenault of Cal Coast has also moved into the M50 division to join his teammate, Olds. Arsenault ran 26:36 last year in M45. If he can do that again he should take 2nd to Combs’s first. At Club Cross, both Robert Verhees and Arsenault were well ahead of Burdett. And you can be sure that David Olds will be pushing the pace; he is always a threat for the podium. At Carlsbad last year Verhees ran 16:00 to Arsenault’s 16:12 and bested him by nearly a half minute at Club Cross. Combs, Verhees, R. Arsenault.

W50. Kathleen Cushing-Murray, 7th last year in W45 at 32:28 in this race is definitely a threat in her new division. Rosalva Bonilla ran 33:07 and Debra Okano 33:26 in the same race so they will be right on Cushing-Murray’s heels. Laura Stuart ran very well at Club Cross, finishing right behind Kirsten leetch who bested Cushing-Murray by a minute in the 2015 8K Championship. That is enough for me to make her the favorite but Cushing-Murray should push Stuart to the limit.
Stuart, Cushing-Murray, Bonilla.

M55. The M55 contests will see the return of 2012 and 2013 Runner of the Year Brian Pilcher who lost the 2nd half of the 2015 season to a hamstring flare-up. If his fitness should be anywhere near normal , he would certainly be the favorite. As of a couple of weeks ago, however, he had still not tested his speed.  Bill Enicks who tends to run longer races is making an exception to come out to challenge for the 8K crown. Ray Knerr finished nearly a minute ahead of Enicks at Club Cross in December but roads and cross country are somewhat different pursuits. Still Knerr gets the nod for 2nd because of that result.  Pilcher, Knerr, Enicks.

W55. This is a tough division to handicap because the major contenders have not typically raced against each other. Kelly Kruell who won the W55 gold medal at the USA XC earlier this month will take on Suzanne Morris and Nancy Simmons. Morris finished 1st in the 2015 edition of this race, winning handily. Simmons took the W55 crown at the USATF 5K XC Championship at Saratoga Springs. Morris, Kruell, Simmons.

M60. Defending M60 Champ, Rick Becker, had a terrific tussle last year with US 10K record-holder, Tom McCormack, sprinting past at the finish line. He is going for his 2nd 2016 victory this weekend after taking the M60 XC crown earlier this month. There are rumors that McCormack”s injury rehab may be nearing its end and we may see him at a race soon, but not this time. Becker appears to be a few steps ahead of everyone else in M60. But it is, as usual, a strong field and Becker cannot take anything for granted. Tom Bernhard won several  races last year and was the 2015 M60 Grand Prix Champ. At Club Cross last year, Reno Stirrat got the better of Bernhard but he has not recently found a way to do that on the roads. John Victoria should also be running with that group if recovered from a hamstring issue that popped up at the very end of the Club Cross race in December. [Late note: The BRR team let me know that Victoria will not be in Brea due to an issue with back pain. I hope that is just a temporary setback.]  A terrific trio of runners, Dale Campbell, Heath Hibbard, and Keith Witthauer,  have typically been a half step back from that group but are poised to move up. Becker, Bernhard, Stirrat.

W60. Christine Kennedy who won this W60 race in record-breaking time is presumably now reunited with her grown  daughters in England, plotting to see if she can break 3 hours in the London Marathon. In any case she is not in Brea. In her absence Honor Fetherston who finished 2nd to Kennedy last year should take first. In the 2015 edition of the 8K, Madson Buchbinder finished a couple of minutes back from Fetherson with Kathy Guiney a few seconds back. Fetherston, Buchbinder, Guiney.

M65. Peter Mullin was off his game for most of 2015 but now that he has moved up to the next age division, I suspect he is prepped for a big year. We get our first look at Brea. The M65 Runner of the Year, Lloyd Hansen, had to withdraw from this race due to family responsibilities so that clears the way a bit but Ignacio Jimenez who bested Hansen at this race last year, will present a stiff challenge. Jimenez is coming off an M65 win at Bend and will try to make it 2 in a row as he did at the start of last year. Hall of Famer, Doug Bell, may have something to say about that. He also is moving up to M65 for the first time. He would be favored for the win but he skipped Club Cross and the USA XC events to rehab an injury of some sort. Is he fully recovered and ready to contest at the front of M65 or is he coming as a foot soldier for his team, providing added depth? My guess is that he is ready to roll but we will have to wait for the race. As with the previous division there are a number of stalwarts a step back from those 3 who are keeping the pressure on. Jerry Learned, Roger Price, and Ronald Wells could all step onto the podium. Bell, Mullin, Jimenez.

W65. This looks like a battle between West Coast and Mountains. California’s Jo Anne Rowland defends her 2015 title against Colorado’s Edie Stevenson who claimed gold in the 2015 USATF 5K Championship in Syracuse and the 12K in Alexandria. Rowland won Brea and Saratoga-5km X? She took 2nd to 2014 Runner of the Year Sabra Harvey at Club XC and started off this season with a win at the USA XC at Bend. If Stevenson is on her game, she should take 1st. Dianne Anderson may be the best of the rest based on her 5K times and having bested Maggie Fillmore by a minute at Club XC last December. Stevenson, Rowland, Anderson.

M70. It seems every division is packed with exciting contests. Should Jan Frisby, Len Goldman or Gary Patton be considered the favorite? Frisby is the reigning M70 Runner of the Year and the defending champ but he ran into an Achilles issue at Syracuse and this will be his first race since. Frisby says the Achilles has calmed down but he is not at his usual fitness. Goldman was dominant at the end of the year, winning M70 at Club Cross. He had a terrific year overall in 2015. At Carlsbad when Frisby was at full roar, Goldman was able to finish within 30 seconds of him. Patton is renowned for his track exploits but is always a factor when he steps onto the roads. He won the M70 gold medal at the USA XC Championships in Bend earlier this month. Paul Carlin (yours truly) could factor in the race for the podium but until he runs a good race it is hard to know how to count him. His training has gone well recently but that is not a race. I take Frisby at his word as just being a good soldier for the Boulder Road Runners and rank him lower than his usual spot in front. And I will give Patton credit for having the hot hand, coming off of Bend. Patton, Goldman, Frisby.

W70. Norma Thomas who had this division to herself last year is joined by two challengers. Jean Gardner and Irene Terronez will provide the competition but Thomas should be up to the challenge. Gardner runs a lot of half marathons and races frequently. But when she ran in the non-USATF portion of the Brea 8K classic last year, Gardner ran 10 minutes slower than Thomas did. Terronez also runs long races but does not appear to be terribly fast in 10K’s and below. Thomas, Gardner, Terronez.

M75. Hans Schmid appears to be the runner to beat. He took M75 gold at Club Cross and should move up from his 3rd place finish last year in this race.  M70 Grand Prix winner, Roland Cormier, who bested Schmid in 2015 is not racing this weekend.  Larry Brooks broke 22 minutes at the Carlsbad 5000 and finished only 2 minutes behind Schmid at Brea last year. There appears to be a gap back to the others but Victor Gonzalez has the times to suggest he can take 3rd. Schmid, Brooks, Gonzalez.

W75. Pat Herr and Dorothy Strand went 1-2 last year and will try for a repeat. The 2015 W75 Grand Prix winner, Madeline Bost, is making the West Coast trip this year to try her hand at the 8K. As Bost herself says, she is not the fastest woman in this division but until another runner or two from this division commit to more national races, she is the favorite for the 2016 Grand Prix too. Still she ran an 8K in New Jersey a minute faster than Herr’s winning time in the USATF 8K last year. Based on that, Bost is the favorite but that hill halfway through the Brea course could be the equalizer. Bost ,Herr , Strand.

M80. Bill Dodson took the gold at Club Cross in December and there is no reason to think he is not still King of the Hill. Bob Rice, Allen Warren, and Richard Williams should have quite a tussle to settle the rest of the podium.  Dodson, Williams, Warren.

M85. Gunnar Linde is, as of now, the sole entrant in this division so should be able to repeat his 2015 win with no difficulty. Linde.

Age Grading. Last year it was Pilcher, McCormack and Becker. Favorites for the Men’s Age-Grading title include Rick Becker, Tom Bernhard and, if fully rehabbed, Brian Pilcher. If any of those falter , Kristian Blaich (possible scratch though), Francis Burdett, and Christian Cushing-Murray were all on at least one National Championship  Age-grading podium last year. On the Women’s side it was Kennedy, Morris, and Fischer. This year it is likely to be a battle between Tania Fischer, Suzanne Morris, Nancy Simmons, Edie Stevenson, and Honor Fetherston.

Teams. [Team preview will be added later today. I have received an update from Boulder Road Runners 60+ team. John Victoria is a late scratch. And from the listing of the Atlanta TC 40+ team, I infer that Kristian Blaich is a late scratch also.] Here we go, some divisions not as tightly researched as I would like but all of a sudden my Firefox browser told me that one of my main sources, Athlinks, had improper security so it would no longer connect. Probably a temporary glitch but a temporary glitch the evening before a race is a killer for a preview.


M40+. Looks like Cal Coast  all the way. If Atlanta TC had Kristian Blaich on the team it might have been close and interesting. He is out due to an untimely bout with the flu. M65 stalwart, Jerry Learned, is their third member but is not expected to keep pace with the M40’s. A Snail’s Pace Running and Beach City Runners will slug it out for 2nd and 3rd; last year they finished 3rd and 5th. Cal Coast TC, A Snail’s Pace Running. Beach City Runners.

W40+. Last year it was Janes Elite, Team Runcoach, and A Snail’s Pace. It should be quite a race again this year. Team Runcoach is not entered and it looks like the Janes Elite, Santa Barbara Running and Racing, and A Snail’s Pace all have strong teams, led by Fischer, Abrami, and Ertel respectively. Janes Elite, Santa Barbara Running and Racing, A Snail’s Pace.

M50+. Last year it was Cal Coast, A Snail’s Pace, and Club Ed Running. They are all entered again but with slightly different rosters. Cal Coast A should take it handily but Cal Coast B may also be in the mix. For now I’ll go with the same order as last time but admit I have not had time to do a full research job on the other West Coast teams with altered rosters. Cal Coast , A Snail’s Pace, Club Ed.

W50+. In 2015 it was A Snail’s Pace followed by Cal Coast and Team Runners High. Cal Coast is not entered this year. The top two runners for A Snails Pace in 2015 are no ton the team this year while Team Runners High is only missing their number 2 runner. Team Runners High, A Snail’s Pace, Club Ed Running.

M60+.  This division is loaded with competitive teams. In 2015 it was Cal Coast, Tamalpa Runners, and Ann Arbor Track Club. The latter two teams are not entered this year. The 4th and 5th place teams were A Snail’s Pace and Club Ed Running. The 2015 M60+ Grand Prix winning team, Boulder Road Runners, entered with high hopes. But John Victoria, their lead runner ran into some back pain this week and is a scratch. They still have a potentially formidable team if the rest are healthy. Hall of Famer Doug Bell, Heath Hibbard and 2015 M70 Runner of the Year, Jan Frisby should take 2nd if they run close to their usual times. But this is the first race for both Bell and Frisby since before Club Cross. The Shore AC team which finished 4th in the 2015 Grand Prix, is determined to crack the GP podium this year. Cal Coast should have 1st place locked in but it could be close between Boulder Road Runners and Shore AC if any of the Boulder guys have an off day. Shore AC’s top runner, Reno Stirrat has had an off and on hamstring issue but if he is on, should give Shore AC a great start. If Emmanuel Broady also has a strong day, Shore will be in contention.  If Bell and Hibbard both run their best, they should take the next two spots. Frisby if he were fully fit would not be far back. But Frisby says his fitness is a little off so it is hard to say where he will be. And there are several strong West Coast teams that will try to keep the visitors off the podium by occupying it themselves. Florida Track Club-West could well make the podium if either Boulder RR or Shore AC falter.  Cal Coast, Boulder Road Runners, Shore AC.

W60+. Impala Racing Team won this division by default in 2015. This year they will have A Snail’s Pace challenging them. Impala Racing Team, A Snail’s Pace.

M70+. Three Northern California teams came in and dominated the podium last year. Tamalpa Runners, Santa Barbara Running and Racing, and West Valley Joggers and Striders finished 1-2-3 in 2015. The Tamalpa Runners  bring the same team so they are favored. Club Ed Running and Florida Track Club West. Tamalpa’s Goldman should lead the way but Florida TC’s Enos and Callaway will try to finish between Goldman and Schmid. If they can do that, they have a chance at an upset. Tamalpa Runners, Florida TC West, Club Ed Running.

W70+. A Snail’s Pace Running Club has this division to itself and will take the gold. With a 5 runner team of Jean Gardner, Pat Herr, Veronica Noguer, Dorothy Strand, and Norma Thomas, they would e a formidable team no matter who else was entered.  A Snail’s Pace.

M80+. Like the W70+, this is a division that does not always get a qualified entrant with three runners. So it is great that the San Diego Track Club has William Crum, Edward Gookin, and Warren Osborn entered to claim the M80+ gold medal. But they have no room for error. All 3 have to deliver for the team to win.



M40+. Looks like Cal Coast  all the way. If Atlanta TC had Kristian Blaich on the team it might have been close and interesting. He is out due to an untimely bout with the flu. M65 stalwart, Jerry Learned, is their third member but is not expected to keep pace with the M40’s. A Snail’s Pace Running and Beach City Runners will slug it out for 2nd and 3rd; last year they finished 3rd and 5th. Cal Coast TC, A Snail’s Pace Running. Beach City Runners.

W40+. Last year it was Janes Elite, Team Runcoach, and A Snail’s Pace. It should be quite a race again this year. Team Runcoach is not entered and it looks like the Janes Elite, Santa Barbara Running and Racing, and A Snail’s Pace all have strong teams, led by Fischer, Abrami, and Ertel respectively. Janes Elite, Santa Barbara Running and Racing, A Snail’s Pace.

M50+. Last year it was Cal Coast, A Snail’s Pace, and Club Ed Running. They are all entered again but with slightly different rosters. Cal Coast A should take it handily but Cal Coast B may also be in the mix. For now I’ll go with the same order as last time but admit I have not had time to do a full research job on the other West Coast teams with altered rosters. Cal Coast , A Snail’s Pace, Club Ed.

W50+. In 2015 it was A Snail’s Pace followed by Cal Coast and Team Runners High. Cal Coast is not entered this year. The top two runners for A Snails Pace in 2015 are no ton the team this year while Team Runners High is only missing their number 2 runner. Team Runners High, A Snail’s Pace, Club Ed Running.

M60+.  This division is loaded with competitive teams. In 2015 it was Cal Coast, Tamalpa Runners, and Ann Arbor Track Club. The latter two teams are not entered this year. The 4th and 5th place teams were A Snail’s Pace and Club Ed Running. The 2015 M60+ Grand Prix winning team, Boulder Road Runners, entered with high hopes. But John Victoria, their lead runer ran into some back pain this week and is a scratch. They still have a potentially formidable team if the rest are healthy. Hall of Famer Doug Bell, Heath Hibbard and 2015 M70 Runner of the Year, Jan Frisby should take 2nd if they run close to their usual times. But this is the first race for both Bell and Frisby since before Club Cross. The Shore AC team which finished 4th in the 2015 Grand Prix, is determined to crack the GP podium this year. Cal Coast should have 1st place locked in but it could be close between Boulder Road Runners and Shore AC if any of the Boulder guys have an off day. Shore AC’s top runner, Reno Stirrat has had an off and on hamstring issue but if he is on, should give Shore AC a great start. If Emmanuel Broady also has a strong day, Shore will be in contention.  If Bell and Hibbard both run their best, they should take the next two spots. Frisby if he were fully fit would not be far back. But Frisby says his fitness is a little off so it is hard to say where he will be. And there are several strong West Coast teams that will try to keep the visitors off the podium by occupying it themselves. Florida Track Club-West could well make the podium if either Bouldeer RR or Shore AC falter.  Cal Coast, Boulder Road Runners, Shore AC.

W60+. Impala Racing Team won this division by default in 2015. This year they will have A Snail’s Pace challenging them. Impala Racing Team, A Snail’s Pace.

M70+. Three Northern California teams came in and dominated the podium last year. Tamalpa Runners, Santa Barbara Running and Racing, and West Valley Joggers and Striders finished 1-2-3 in 2015. The Tamalpa Runners  bring the same team so they are favored. Club Ed Running and Florida Track Club West. Tamalpa’s Goldman should lead the way but Florida TC’s Enos and Callaway will try to finish between Goldman and Schmid. If they can do that, they have a chance at an upset. Tamalpa Runners, Florida TC West, Club Ed Running.

W70+. A Snail’s Pace Running Club has this division to itself and will take the gold. With a 5 runner team of Jean Gardner, Pat Herr, Veronica Noguer, Dorothy Strand, and Norma Thomas, they would e a formidable team no matter who else was entered.  A Snail’s Pace.

M80+. Like the W70+, this is a division that does not always get a qualified entrant with three runners. So it is great that the San Diego Track Club has William Crum, Edward Gookin, and Warren Osborn entered to claim the M80+ gold medal. But they have no room for error. All 3 have to deliver for the team to win.

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